“活下去”预言成真！郁亮悲情离场，房地产黄金时代终局已定

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:30pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第⼀章 序幕：⼀个时代的终结</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">1.1 2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">8</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽇：转折时刻</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">8</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽇，万科企业股份有限公司（以下简称</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）发布公告：郁亮因达到退休年龄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">60</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">岁，辞去公司董事及执⾏副总裁职务，不再担任公司任何职务。公告措辞平淡，但这⼀⼈事变动的意义远超表⾯。它标志着中国房地产⻩⾦时代最具代表性的职业经理⼈正式谢幕，也意味着这家昔⽇⾏业⻰头在经历数年寒冬与债务困局后，彻底告别</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，转⼊由第⼀⼤股东深圳地铁集团（以下简称</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">深铁</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）主导的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">混合所有制</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.0"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">阶段。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮的离任并⾮突如其来。⾃</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉卸任董事会主席转任执⾏副总裁，到</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉完全退出，这⼀年过渡期内，万科正经历成⽴以来最严峻的考验</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">创纪录的巨额亏损、债务展期谈判受阻、信⽤评级下调⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">选择性违约</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）。表⾯上的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">荣退</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，实则更像是⼀位职业经理⼈在守完最后⼀班岗后的黯然离场。对资本市场⽽⾔，这已不是简单的⼈事更迭，⽽是为持续三⼗余年的房地产⾼增⻓模式划上句号。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">1.2&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">研究缘起</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">本报告旨在系统剖析郁亮退休这⼀标志性事件的深层含义。当前中国房地产市场正处于去杠杆的关键阶段，房企债务违约已成常态，作为最后⼀家尚未实质性违约的头部混合所有制房企，万科的命运⾛向具有独特的观察价值。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">微观层⾯：郁亮离任对万科经营战略、债务重组进程及组织⼠⽓将产⽣何种影响？新任董事⻓⻩⼒平及其背后的深铁集团，将如何重塑万科的治理结构？</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">中观层⾯：郁亮曾于</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2018</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年率先发出</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的警⽰，为何这⼀前瞻性判断未能使万科真正穿越周期？职业经理⼈制度在系统性⾦融⻛险⾯前，是否暴露出固有缺陷？</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">宏观层⾯：万科当下的困境，折射出中国房地产⾏业从</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾦融驱动</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">向</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">运营驱动</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">转型过程中的哪些结构性障碍？</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第⼆章 郁亮与万科的三⼗六年：从执⾏者到掌舵⼈</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2.1&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">财务专家的崛起（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">1990-2000</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1990</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">25</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">岁的郁亮从北京⼤学国际经济学系毕业后加⼊万科。彼时，这家深圳企业尚处于战略探索期，创始⼈王⽯正试图将公司从多元化经营转向专业化发展。王⽯带有军旅背景的理想主义⾊彩，郁亮则以经济学训练培养的审慎⻛格⻅⻓。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">在万科的最初⼗年，郁亮主要负责证券投资业务。万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">A</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">股、</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">B</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">股上市及⼀系列资本运作，多由其主导完成。在房地产⾏业尚处粗放发展阶段时，郁亮将财务规范体系引⼊万科，这成为该公司⽇后领先同⾏的制度基础。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1993</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，他出任深圳万科财务顾问公司总经理，进⼊公司决策层。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">这⼀时期，万科确⽴了住宅开发的专业化战略。郁亮协助王⽯剥离怡宝饮料、万佳百货等⾮核⼼业务，将资源集中于房地产主业。这⼀决策在此后被证明具有前瞻性</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——多元化扩张的同⾏多数未能幸存，万科则成为中国最早的专业住宅开发企业之⼀。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2.2 "</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">王朱郁</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">铁三⻆与千亿征程（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2001-2010</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2001</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，郁亮接替姚牧⺠担任公司总经理，正式进⼊万科最⾼管理层。此后形成了明确的权⼒分⼯格局：王⽯负责战略⽅向、企业⽂化及对外形象塑造，郁亮则专注于战略执⾏，将公司愿景转化为可量化的考核指标、业务流程和财务⽬标。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">在郁亮主政的⼗年间，万科的组织执⾏⼒得到显著提升。他主导了公司的全国化扩张，建⽴了完整的职业经理⼈体系，并推动产品标准化进程。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">精细化管理：郁亮在万科全⾯推⾏预算管理制度，实现了资⾦使⽤的精确控制。尽管公司规模快速扩张，但资⾦链始终保持稳健，未出现重⼤财务⻛险。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">千亿俱乐部：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2010</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，万科年销售额突破</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1000</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元，成为全球⾸家达到该规模的住宅开发企业。这⼀⾥程碑验证了万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾼周转</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">模式的有效性，也确⽴了郁亮作为中国房地产⾏业顶级职业经理⼈的地位。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2.3&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">宝万之争与控制权保卫战（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2015-2017</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">）</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2015</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年爆发的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">宝万之争</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，构成郁亮职业⽣涯中最严峻的考验。宝能系通过⼆级市场举牌试图获取万科控制权，管理层⾯临被更换的⻛险。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">在这场旷⽇持久的控制权争夺战中，郁亮负责具体的防御操作，⽽王⽯则担任对外发声的⻆⾊。管理层最终选择引⼊深圳地铁集团作为</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽩⾐骑⼠</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，以国有资本⼒量化解了敌意收购危机。但这⼀解决⽅案也付出了代价</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">原第⼀⼤股东华润退出，深铁成为新的控股股东。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">这场股权之争虽以管理层保住位置告终，但改变了万科的股权结构与治理模式。公司从股权分散、管理层主导的公众公司，转变为国有资本控股的混合所有制企业。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2017年王⽯退休后，郁亮接任董事会主席，万科正式进⼊</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第三章 盛世危⾔：</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">"</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">活下去</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">"</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">的预⾔与⿊铁时代的降临</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">3.1 2018</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年的警⽰：为何提出</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">？</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2018</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">9</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉，万科秋季例会现场，背景板上三个⼤字</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">震动全⾏业。彼时房地产市场仍处⾼位运⾏，恒⼤、碧桂园、融创等⻰头企业激进扩张，⼤举拿地、冲刺销售规模。郁亮此番表态被业界视为</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">危⾔耸听</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，部分观点认为这是⾏业⻰头的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">凡尔赛式焦虑</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">时隔⼋年回望，这⼀判断或可视为郁亮职业⽣涯中最具前瞻性的战略预警。其核⼼逻辑基于三重结构性变化：</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⼈⼝与城镇化红利消退：城镇化进程放缓，住房刚需增量空间收窄。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">宏观调控持续收紧：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">房住不炒</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">定调下，⾦融去杠杆成为政策主线。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾏业利润率系统性下⾏：⼟地成本攀升与销售承压并存，房地产开发将回归制造业般的微利运营模式。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮将⾏业周期概括为</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⻩⾦时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（⾼增⻓⾼利润）、</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽩银时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（增速放缓但仍可盈利）、</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⿊铁时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（微利⽣存）三阶段演进。其要求万科收缩战线，巩固基本盘，为⾏业下⾏周期做好准备。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">3.2&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">战略转型的困境：预⻅与执⾏的落差</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">尽管战略判断准确，万科的转型实践却陷⼊</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">知易⾏难</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的困境，暴露出职业经理⼈制度在系统性⻛险⾯前的局限性。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">多元化业务的资本陷阱：为培育第⼆增⻓曲线，万科布局⻓租公寓（泊寓）、物流地产（万纬）、商业地产（印⼒）等重资产业务。这些业务投资回收期⻓、资⾦占⽤⼤，在市场上⾏期属优质资产，但在流动性紧缩环境下转为流动性包袱，变现困难。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⼟地储备策略失衡：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2018</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2021</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年间，万科仍在持续拿地，部分地块获取成本偏⾼。为维持⾏业地位与规模竞争⼒，公司未能彻底执⾏收缩战略。后续证明，相当⼀部分⼆线城市项⽬⾯临账⾯亏损。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">管理优化的边际递减：郁亮试图通过组织架构调整与合伙⼈机制改⾰释放</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">管理红利</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">。但在⾏业系统性下⾏周期中，内部效率提升难以对冲外部需求萎缩与资产价格下跌的压⼒。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">3.3 2021-2023</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年：防御战的最后阶段</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2021</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年下半年恒⼤债务危机爆发后，房企违约呈多⽶诺⻣牌式蔓延。万科进⼊全⾯防御状态。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">资产处置与项⽬清理：启动⾮核⼼资产出售计划，暂停或退出部分在建项⽬。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">财务指标管控：在</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">三道红线</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">监管框架下，万科维持</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">绿档</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">评级，账⾯财务指标符合监管要求。但实质上，公司已处于流动性紧绷状态。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾼管薪酬调整：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2023</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，郁亮与⾼管团队主动降薪，⽉薪降⾄税前⼀万元，放弃年度奖⾦。该举措具有象征意义，但对缓解数千亿债务压⼒作⽤有限。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">即便采取上述措施，万科仍未能独善其⾝。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2023</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，公司上市</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">31</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年来⾸次取消现⾦分红</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">这⼀标志性事件表明，公司现⾦流已接近极限。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第四章 资⾦链断裂：</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">2024-2026</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">年财务危机全景</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">4.1 2024</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年：创纪录巨亏</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2024</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，万科交出上市</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">31</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年来最差成绩单：全年亏损</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">494.78</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元。这⼀数字的量级，⾜以改写中国房地产⾏业的历史记录。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">表</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;4-1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">：万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2023-2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年核⼼财务指标对⽐（单位：亿元⼈⺠币）</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmgrAqVysedPGz0Z6e3EtpaDQIKn1YTtsGS9fulicHDkYCtdeibsPwlOCHeEbxEZWgK7VyfkhicuibgHQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3184" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="625" type="block" data-imgfileid="100048040" data-aistatus="1" /></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亏损成因解析：</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">资产减值侵蚀利润：房地产市场持续下⾏，万科存货及投资性物业账⾯价值⼤幅缩⽔。前期⾼价获取的⼟地储备，在当前市场环境下已难以按原预期价格变现，巨额减值损失不可避免。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽑利率断崖式下跌：开发业务⽑利率降⾄约</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.0%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，接近盈亏平衡线。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2024</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年交付项⽬多为</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2019-2021</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年间⾼地价时期获取的地块，开发成本远超当前市场售价，导致项⽬利润空间⼏乎完全被压缩。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">投资性物业估值重置：持有型商业物业及写字楼在宏观经济承压背景下，估值⽔平相应下调，由此产⽣的公允价值变动损失进⼀步加重财务负担。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">4.2 2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年：流动性危机显性化</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">进⼊</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年，万科财务状况继续恶化。前三季度归⺟净利润亏损</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">280.2</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元，营业收⼊同⽐下降</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">27%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，销售回款能⼒明显减弱。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">更严峻的问题在于流动性枯竭。截⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">9</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉末，万科账⾯货币资⾦约</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">600</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元（其中相当⽐例为受限资⾦，系预售监管账⼾资⾦，⽤途受限），⽽⼀年内到期的有息负债规模达</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1514</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">现⾦短债⽐失衡：剔除受限资⾦后，万科实际可动⽤流动性与短期债务规模严重失配，现⾦短债⽐远低于</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1.0</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的监管预警线。这意味着公司已⽆法依靠⾃有资⾦偿付即将到期的债务。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">融资渠道收窄：⾏业信⽤环境急剧收紧，万科在债券市场发⾏新债⼏⽆可能，银⾏开发贷款审批条件苛刻，融资能⼒已接近丧失。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">4.3&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">违约边缘：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">评级与展期受挫</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年末⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年初，万科债务违约⻛险从潜在转为现实。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">债券展期⽅案遇阻</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">为缓解偿债压⼒，万科尝试对两笔即将到期的中期票据进⾏展期：</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">MTN004"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">：本⾦规模</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">20</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元，原定</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">12</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉到期。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2.&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">MTN005"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">：本⾦规模</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">37</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元，同样⾯临偿付压⼒。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科提出的展期⽅案为延⻓还款期限，维持原票⾯利率不变。但该⽅案在债券持有⼈⼤会上遭遇否决。以</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">MTN004"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">为例，仅</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">20.2%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的持有⼈投赞成票，</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">78.3%明确反对。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">债权⼈⽴场：投资者认为，万科作为混合所有制头部房企且拥有国资股东背景，理应通过资产处置等⽅式筹措资⾦履⾏偿债义务，⽽⾮仿效⺠营房企采取展期⼿段。展期⽅案未获通过，使万科陷⼊实质性违约困境。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">信⽤评级降⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">SD</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">鉴于万科未能按原定条款兑付债务，且展期安排实质上构成对原有债务条款的单⽅⾯修改，标普全球评级于</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">12</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉将万科主体信⽤评级从</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"CCC-"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">下调⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"SD"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">Selective Default</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，选择性违约）。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">评级的影响：标普认定万科已对特定债务发⽣违约，尽管公司可能仍在偿付其他债务。对国际资本市场⽽⾔，</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">评级意味着发⾏⼈信⽤已彻底丧失，万科在境外融资渠道就此关闭。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">上述财务危机的集中爆发，构成郁亮退休的直接背景。在资产负债表深度受损的情况下，传统管理⼿段已难以扭转局⾯。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第五章 治理架构重构：地铁集团全⾯接管与</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">"</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">后郁亮时代</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">"</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">5.1&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">混合所有制试验的终结</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮去职，万科治理架构发⽣实质性转折。这家企业曾寄予厚望的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">混合所有制</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">安排——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">国有股东居于第⼀⼤股东地位但不⼲预经营决策，职业经理⼈团队拥有充分⾃主权</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">在危机冲击下丧失了延续基础。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">企业景⽓时，股东愿意放权以共享收益；企业困顿时、需要股东实质性纾困时，权⼒回收即成必然。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年以来，深圳地铁集团对万科的救助⼒度空前，但其代价是控制权的完全转移。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">资⾦纾困：深铁通过股东借款、认购基础设施</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">REITs</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">等渠道，累计向万科输⾎超过259</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元，这成为万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年得以维系运转的关键⽀撑。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">权⼒置换：作为对价，万科管理层须服从股东意志。郁亮</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">让位</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，本质上是为深铁系⾼管</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">进场</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">腾挪空间。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">5.2&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⻩⼒平接任：⼯程师思维取代市场化逻辑</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">10</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉，郁亮辞去董事会主席职务仅九个⽉后，深铁集团总经理⻩⼒平出任万科董事⻓。这⼀⼈事更迭具有深层含义。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">表</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">5-1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">：郁亮与⻩⼒平对⽐</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmgrAqVysedPGz0Z6e3EtpaWsBsfKEOF3DPpPO9eUBkKPUIVdtECvW7nticV5LllXU3R6IpmnibqCfQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3091216216216216" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="592" type="block" data-imgfileid="100048041" data-aistatus="1" /></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⻩⼒平⼊局，意味着万科将由⼀家</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">追求规模与利润最⼤化</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的开发企业，转型为⼀家</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">以⻛险控制与资产变现为核⼼</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的清算型平台。作为深铁</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾃⼰⼈</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，⻩⼒平的⾸要使命并⾮扩张，⽽是保全国有资产，确保深铁在万科的巨额投⼊不致⾎本⽆归。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">5.3&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">管理层</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">换⾎</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">进程</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">随着郁亮离任，万科原有的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">事业合伙⼈</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">体系⾯临⽡解。公告显⽰，深铁已向万科核⼼部⻔派驻⾼管，实质性接管经营管理权。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">战略收缩：郁亮</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年转任执⾏副总裁期间，主要负责</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">战略与宏观研究</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，实际已被架空。新管理层上任后，迅速启动更为激进的</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">瘦⾝</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽅案。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">资产变现：为回笼资⾦，万科不惜折价出售核⼼资产。例如，将上海七宝万科⼴场剩余</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">50%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">股权以</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">23.84</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">亿元出让予领展，价格远低于市场⾼峰期估值。此类</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">割⾁</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">式操作，在郁亮时代或难以接受，但在国资保底线逻辑下，却成为⽣存必须⽀付的成本。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第六章 郁亮去职：历史定位与制度反思</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">6.1&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">制度遗产：职业经理⼈的样本实验</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽆论最终结局如何，郁亮在中国房地产业乃⾄商业史中的位置已然确⽴。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">其⼀，制度建设。他在万科推⾏的现代企业制度、透明化治理⽂化及职业经理⼈体系，构成这家公司最核⼼的软实⼒。在⼀个⻓期依赖政商关系、灰⾊操作的⾏业中，</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮证明了另⼀条路径的可⾏性</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">依靠制度与专业能⼒，同样可以将企业带⼊世界500</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">强。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">其⼆，战略判断。从</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽩银时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">到</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，再到</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⿊铁时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，郁亮的每⼀次研判在当时都显得悲观乃⾄离经叛道，但事后均被市场残酷验证。其思维始终领先⾏业共识⼀个⾝位。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">其三，克制的资本纪律。在全⾏业以⾼杠杆追逐短期暴利的狂热期，郁亮坚持</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">不囤地、不捂盘、不拿地王</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">原则。这种克制使得万科在恒⼤、融创相继暴雷后，仍能多⽀撑三年。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">6.2&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">职业经理⼈的边界：预⻅危机未必能避免危机</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">然⽽，郁亮未能带领万科穿越周期，亦暴露出职业经理⼈模式在系统性⻛险⾯前的局限。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾸先是路径依赖。尽管转型⼝号响亮，但万科核⼼利润来源始终是房地产开发。在物流地产、商业地产、⻓租公寓等新业务上投⼊巨⼤，但回收周期过⻓，⽆法在短期内形成有效补充。当开发业务这⼀</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">现⾦奶⽜</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">倒下，新业务反⽽成为资⾦⿊洞。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">其次是规模焦虑。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2018</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2021</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年间，万科虽对外强调</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，但为维持⾏业头部地位，仍在部分三四线城市及⾼价地块上进⾏了错误投资。这表明，在资本市场排名压⼒下，即便是郁亮也难以完全摆脱规模增⻓惯性。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">最后是对周期深度的误判。郁亮预⻅了寒冬，但他或许未料到这个冬天会如此漫⻓且致命。他可能将其视为⼀次深度调整，⽽⾮整个开发模式的结构性终结。因此，万科的防御措施虽⽐同⾏更早，但⼒度仍然不⾜</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">如果在</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2019</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年即停⽌拿地、清空库存，或许能够幸免，但这在当时的商业逻辑下⼏乎不可能实现。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">6.3&nbsp;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">时代的注脚：悲剧性的预⾔者</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">郁亮的离开带有浓重的悲剧⾊彩。他如同希腊神话中的卡珊德拉，拥有预⾔灾难的能⼒，却⽆⼒改变灾难降临。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">其退场，并⾮因个⼈决策失误，⽽是因其所依托的那个时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">依靠⼟地增值、⾦融杠杆与城镇化红利的时代</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">已经彻底落幕。当潮⽔退去，即便是游泳技术最精湛的选⼿，也⽆法在⼲涸的河床中前⾏。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">第七章 尾声：万科向何处去</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">债务重组箭在弦上</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">评级落地，债券展期受阻，万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年的头号任务已毫⽆悬念：债务重组势在必⾏。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">参照融创、富⼒等房企处置路径，万科或将推出涵盖境内外债务的⼀揽⼦⽅案</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">延⻓偿付期限、调降票⾯利率，乃⾄引⼊债转股安排。深铁集团可能联⼿深圳国资委，</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">对部分债券提供有限担保，以争取债权⼈让步。但这种增信不会是</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽆限兜底</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，⽽是有边界的战术性⽀持。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">业务模式重构：回归城市服务商</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">在⻩⼒平主导下，万科正加速剥离⾮核⼼资产，向与深铁业务深度耦合的轨道靠拢。TOD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">模式（轨道交通导向开发）将成为重点。万科更多参与深铁沿线物业开发，从</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">拿地</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">-</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">建楼</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">-</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">销售</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的传统模式，转向</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">轨道</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">+</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">物业</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">的综合开发服务商⻆⾊。尽管利润率收窄，但胜在现⾦流可预期、⻛险可控。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">同时，代建业务被寄予厚望。凭借尚存的品牌影响⼒和⼯程管理能⼒，万科试图输出管理⽽⾮资本，⾛轻资产化道路。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">资本市场的冷静观察</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">对投资者⽽⾔，郁亮退休早已被充分定价，甚⾄在某种意义上构成利好</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">——</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">它消除了管理层与⼤股东间的潜在张⼒，为国资救助扫清了程序性障碍。摩根⼤通在研报中将郁亮辞任定义为</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⾮事件</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">non-event</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">），认为市场关注点已完全转向债务重组⽅案能否兑现。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">未来⼀段时期，万科股价不再由经营业绩驱动，⽽是由</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">重组预期</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">与</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">政策博弈</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">主导。在资产负债表修复完成之前，它将⻓期停留在低估值区间。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;">尾声</span></span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">8</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽇，郁亮转⾝离场，留下⼀个背影，也留下⼀个问号。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">对万科⽽⾔，这既是⼀家巨型企业的⾄暗时刻，亦是重启的起点。失去郁亮的万科，将不再是那个充满理想主义⽓质的⾏业标杆，⽽可能蜕变为⼀台更稳健、更务实、但也更趋于平庸的国资运作平台。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">对中国房地产业⽽⾔，郁亮的退场，更像是⼀份姗姗来迟的讣告。它向所有参与者传递出⼀个明确信号：不要再对旧⽇的狂飙突进⼼存幻想，是时候向那个⾼歌猛进的时代作⼀次体⾯的告别了。"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">活下去</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">，仍是唯⼀的真理。只是这⼀次，主⻆已经换⼈。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">附录：关键数据与事件索引</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⼀、万科核⼼管理层变动时间表</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmgrAqVysedPGz0Z6e3EtpaGiaOMRwXephWFnUIuTIII2MXrjicflULMBPm3DVoicep48e3WMUgxUxHg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.41025641025641024" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="624" type="block" data-imgfileid="100048042" data-aistatus="1" /></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⼆、万科违约与评级变动记录</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">11</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉：拟对</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">MTN004"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">及</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">MTN005"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">债券实施展期。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">12</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉：债权⼈会议否决展期⽅案。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2025</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">12</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">23</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽇：标普将万科评级下调⾄</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">SD</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">（选择性违约）。</span></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">2026</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">年</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">1</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽉</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Bold&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-weight:bold;"><span leaf="">28</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">⽇：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">"22</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">万科</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;Inter-Regular&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">MTN004"</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-size:12pt;font-family:&#39;&#39;;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span leaf="">宽限期届满，⾯临实质性违约⻛险。</span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>