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【原创】看表！你想知道的炒房攻略在这里

发布于 2016-03-03

<p style="">别光站着不说话，坐下来听听郑老湿给<span style="line-height: 25.6000003814697px;">你的秘笈攻略，有图有表有架（加）势（式）！</span></p><p style=""><br /></p><p style="">世界的变化=市场有效性+随机漫步性</p><p style=""><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="">房价=价值层+流动层+风险偏好层</p><p style=""><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="">价值层=市场有效性分析</p><p style=""><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="">流动层=50%的市场有效性分析+50%的<span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">随机漫步性分析</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">风险偏好层=50%的随机漫步性分析</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style="">先说价值层，我们假设，如果<span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 76, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">一个家庭工作十年可以买上一套房子</strong></span>，那么这个房价就是有基础价值支撑的。</p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJNqvWccSIK3XIictMmll4wS7n6y9oaP5P6R2ibyT4Uibuqwm7Gia5zVnTYGQ/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6366906474820144" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可见，单纯看价值层，一二三线城市的房价差异并不算特别大。一线城市和强二线城市的实际房价反映的较多是非价值层的因素，深圳、上海、北京和厦门的房价非价值层房价比重尤其大，可见这四个城市的房价变化，主要受非价值层（流动层+风险偏好层）的影响。</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">再说流动层，<span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px;">我们以</span></span><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 76, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">二手房成交量和一手房成交量的比例关系</strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">来表现。</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJNkYyhYvQ0BrX7icICIrMvmV0bhonzENN2SMJ5evOvwYM5MtlS01qevXA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7715827338129496" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可以见，<span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px;">深圳、上海、北京和厦门的房价很大程度受益于良好的流动性，所以，要预测这些城市房价的走向，必须密切关注二手房的成交量变化。再结合非价值层来看，成都和苏州在流动层被低估了，如果二手房政策没有大的调整，可以预见这两个城市房价会有一个补涨，尤其是成都！</span></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">因为现在深圳房价得到的关注特别多，我简单拉了个深圳二手房的成交量表，供大家参考。</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJN3l3E5QMjxH9ybAhBBnpia1blMWOTqEt5C5dRNm1fq16TR3wHk8ugnlg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.3273381294964029" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可见，深圳二手房2月29日的成交量依然远高于2015年水平，但是需要注意的是，月均水平已经比2015年下跌了26%！借用股市的一句话：量在价前，量已经萎缩，价呢？</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最后说风险偏好层，我们分别计算了2014年和2015年的地价房价比，然后用</span><span style="max-width: 100%; color: rgb(255, 76, 65); box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2015年地价房价比减去2014年地价房价比</strong></span><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">来表示风险偏好度。</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">先看看2015年比2014年的情况：</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJN3TiackYGkTicQ0qwgMw31x428hT8PwlqvrjZrib3hn74Nb2hZTu6TPKIg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.8471223021582733" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可见，深圳是典型的地价上涨助推房价，政府和开发商都赚得盆满钵满，请容我为深圳购房者哭一会；广州和杭州的开发商则很惨，2015年，他们一直在努力去库存，还要忍受高地价，请容我为政府鼓一会掌；上海和武汉就完全不同，政府把肉都送给开发商了，开发商年终奖肯定很赞，羡慕嫉妒恨！</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">再看看2016年比2015年的情况：</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJNXvS74QwiaMuSibEGzyG8tgLqWKTibWwDmPnErnvVJ7ZnXjxf8FiaFlpX4Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.6870503597122302" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可见，深圳延续地价上涨助推房价的趋势，政府和开发商继续赚得盆满钵满，请容我为深圳购房者痛哭一会；广州和杭州有分化，但可以明确的是，这两个城市还有天津的房价马上就要上涨了！尤其是杭州，同学们，买起来！东莞和中山取代上海和武汉，成为开发商大口吃肉的城市，但是，这种看深圳脸色的城市，房价是很脆弱的，建议不要盲目追高，还是要见好就收。</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">最后看看风险偏好层怎么样：</span></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJN21IiayS6rbLiawLB4nqhGXY8TRlzHvyZJ2ib6UgJY01FGTqUrI9YspMjw/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.7320143884892086" data-w="" /><br /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">从上表可见，深圳风险偏好在下降，所以还是那个观点，谨慎对待深圳市场；苏州、南京、青岛和武汉的风险偏好继续提升，开发商涨价动力很强，值得持续关注。</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">结论：</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">1、首选苏州，安全度极高，房价想象空间巨大，同时关注无锡和苏州的联动，鉴于无锡总价门槛低，屌丝们，你们懂了吗？</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">2、次选杭州，房价想象空间很大，爆发点取决于去库存速度，从目前国家大的政策导向来看，这个爆发点可能很多就到！</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">3、谨慎对待深圳、东莞、中山，切不可追高！</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">4、短期中偏多看待武汉和广州，中期中偏多看待成都！</span></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">5、其他城市，请自行比对数据挖掘，欢迎留言！</span></p><p style=""><br style="max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style=""><span style="max-width: 100%; line-height: 25.6px; box-sizing: border-box !important; word-wrap: break-word !important;">以上分析只是用来寻找感觉和建立逻辑，要准确进行投资（炒房），我们需要更为精细化的分析，下一篇再介绍。</span></p><p style=""><br /></p><p style="">最后，小编说一句：老湿说了<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">欢迎大家转发转载借鉴抄袭，他不会举报哦。</span></p><p style=""><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 1.5em; white-space: normal; border: currentcolor; 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background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="font-size: 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important;">陪你想，陪你写，陪你玩</span></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p style="white-space: normal; text-align: justify; line-height: 24px;"><img data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG4z3ZLnvGz7yzYuZ21wHoX53ZpOwnQhPmGbl2SxSiboaKiaW8L2CuhQBnhRkhP7Z47icicDduyXibFxAAg/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1" data-w="" data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" style="line-height: 1.6; text-indent: 32px; font-family: 宋体;" /></p><p style="white-space: normal;">&nbsp;<img data-type="gif" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG7IOovbRMN4PI9cGff6EhJNrTyL8QicWtjk0ffGBVVNPSShrs8kVulyJfgWUQA8k3yUHicvNzIwK5Ug/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.13129496402877697" data-w="" /><br /></p>

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