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【客研月报 002】2025年1-2月:北京房地产客户研究月报

发布于 2025-02-28

<p><br /></p><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-size: 24px;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">一、市场概况</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.整体市场表现</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交量:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月二手房网签</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">12,480</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套,环比下滑</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">42.1%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,同比微涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">0.29%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">;新房网签</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">15,223</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套,环比下降</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">43.36%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,同比下滑</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">21.93%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2<span style="font-family:宋体;">月二手房市场回暖,单日网签量最高达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">782</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套,累计网签</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">9,744</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套,同比暴涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">113.68%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,但新房网签环比下降</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">21.43%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格趋势:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">二手房价格环比上涨</span>0.1%<span style="font-family:宋体;">,核心区优质学区房(如西城德胜、海淀中关村)逆势上涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5%-8%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,远郊区域(房山、门头沟)跌幅超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">20%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。新房价格整体稳定,郊区部分项目暗降</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5%-10%</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.政策与热点事件</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策优化:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">公积金新政放宽首付比例(首套</span>20%<span style="font-family:宋体;">、二套</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">30%-35%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)及利率(首套</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2.85%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">、二套</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">3.325%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">);商贷利率首套降至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">3.15%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">(五环内)。第二批供地清单新增</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">69</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">宗地块,重点布局轨道站点周边。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">热点事件:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">海淀大悦城、</span>D.P.ONE<span style="font-family:宋体;">源</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">·</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">心等近</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">座购物中心开业;房山区山姆会员商店开工,通州海昌海洋公园启动建设</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">二、客户画像分析</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.基础特征</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">年龄与职业:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">35<span style="font-family:宋体;">岁以下年轻家庭为主力(占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">67%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),多集中于科技、金融行业,海淀、朝阳互联网从业者占比超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">40%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">收入水平:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需家庭年收入集中在</span>30<span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">-50</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元,改善型家庭年收入</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">50</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">-100</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元,高端购房者(总价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2000</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)以企业高管、金融从业者为主。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.行为偏好</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">购房动机:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需以婚房、首套为主(占比</span>55%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),改善型以学区升级(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)和居住品质提升(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">40%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)为核心需求。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品偏好:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需偏好</span>60-90<span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡小户型(占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">56%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),改善型关注</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">100-140</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡四居室(占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">35%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),高端客户倾向核心区次新盘及低密洋房。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">三、区域市场对比</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.分区域表现</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">核心区:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">西城、海淀、东城学区房领涨(涨幅</span>5%-8%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),朝阳</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">CBD</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">、望京商圈回暖(成交价环比涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">1.28%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">近郊:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">昌平南(回龙观)、亦庄经开区因产业支撑逆势上涨(涨幅</span>3.93%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),通州、大兴部分项目以价换量(跌幅</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5%-10%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)。</span></span></p></li><li><p><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房山长阳、门头沟等无配套板块跌幅超</span>20%<span style="font-family:宋体;">,库存压力显著。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.板块价值分析</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">高潜力板块:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">海淀西北旺(科技产业</span>+<span style="font-family:宋体;">政策倾斜)、朝阳太阳宫(高得房率新盘)、亦庄河西(职住平衡</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">低总价)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">风险板块:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房山琉璃河、门头沟等远郊区域因供应过剩,价格或持续下行。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">四、竞争格局</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.房企动态</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">头部企业:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">中海地产以</span>40.08<span style="font-family:宋体;">亿元竞得丰台西南郊地块;北京城建国誉府推出低密洋房(均价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">10.7</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡),主打高端改善市场。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品策略:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房市场聚焦</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">“</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">好房子</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策(得房率</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">90%+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),如海淀永丰、朝阳崔各庄项目。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.品牌分化</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">二手房:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">链家、我爱我家主导市场,核心区房源去化周期缩短至</span>3<span style="font-family:宋体;">天。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">国企主导(如首开、城建),民企加速去库存(如恒大、融创)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">五、客户需求与痛点</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.核心需求</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">总价控制(</span>300<span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">-500</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万)、地铁通勤(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">小时内)、基础配套(商超、医院)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family:宋体;">改善:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">教育资源(九年一贯制学校)、社区品质(人车分流、绿化率</span>30%+<span style="font-family:宋体;">)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.主要痛点</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格倒挂:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊新房与二手房价差缩小,客户观望情绪浓厚。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">置换成本:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">核心区</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">“</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">老破小</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">业主面临高税费、贷款限制。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">六、风险与建议</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.风险提示</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">库存压力:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">郊区新房供应激增(</span>2025<span style="font-family:宋体;">年拟开业</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">25</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">个商业项目),或挤压二手房市场。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><strong><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策不确定性:</span></strong><span style="font-family:宋体;">两会后限购政策或收紧,影响短期需求释放。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 14pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.策略建议</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房企:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">加快郊区项目去化(折扣</span>5%-10%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),核心区聚焦稀缺资产(如学区房、低密盘)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:Calibri;"></span><span style="font-family:宋体;">客户:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需优先地铁盘(昌平南、亦庄),改善关注政策倾斜区域(海淀西北旺)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;">七、未来展望</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 16pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">短期(</span>3-4<span style="font-family:宋体;">月):</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">学区房交易高峰延续,核心区房价或再涨</span>5%-8%<span style="font-family:宋体;">;郊区以价换量持续。</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">中长期:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">轨道交通(</span>17<span style="font-family:宋体;">号线、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">6</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线南延)带动通州、亦庄价值提升;</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">“</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">好房子</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策推动产</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">品升级。</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策预期:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">五环外限购或优化(社保年限降低),激活郊区市场</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 宋体;">注:本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考。</span></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0pt;text-indent: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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