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【客研月报 009】2025年1-2月:南京房地产客户研究月报

发布于 2025-03-03

<p><span style="font-size: 24px;text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-size: 24px;font-family: 黑体;"></span></strong></span></p><section style="margin-top: 24px;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">一、市场概况</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.整体市场表现</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交量价:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">1-2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月南京新房成交面积</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">39.82</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万㎡,同比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">24%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">;成交均价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">26,699</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡,同比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。二手房成交热度回升,库存量从</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">14.8</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万套降至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">14.0</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万套,降幅达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5.5%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">供应与去化:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房供应量同比下滑</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">51%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,主城区核心板块(如河西、大校场)因土地稀缺,优质项目去化率超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">80%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">;远郊区域(六合、溧水)依赖价格优势,但去化周期延长至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">18</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">个月以上。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">结构性分化:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">改善型需求主导市场,</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">100-120</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡户型占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">45%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,总价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">300-500</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万成交占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">32%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.政策与热点事件</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策支持:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">央行降准降息、南京“购房即落户”政策持续释放红利,都市圈公积金贷款同城化助力跨城购房需求。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">热点事件:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;苏宁集团破产重组,影响本地商业地产信心;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;地铁十号线漏水事件暴露江北新区基建短板,短期内板块价值承压;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;贾西万象汇开业、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">7</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线全线开通,带动</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">S3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线沿线(雨花、江宁)客流量增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">20%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">二、客户画像分析</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.客户基础特征</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">年龄与家庭结构:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">25-35</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">岁刚需客群占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">58%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">(首套房为主),</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">35-45</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">岁改善客群占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">32%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">(二胎家庭及学区需求)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">职业与收入:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">私营企业员工占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">45%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,国企</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">事业单位占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,家庭年收入中位数</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">28</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元,购房预算集中于</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">200-400</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.行为偏好</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品选择:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">偏好品牌房企项目(招商、华发、保利),精装交付占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">70%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">;河西、鼓楼学区房溢价率超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">15%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">决策因素:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">交通便利性(地铁</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">1</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">公里内)、教育资源(优质学区)、商业配套(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">公里内综合体)为前三大购房驱动力。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">三、区域市场对比</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.分区域表现</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">核心区(河西、鼓楼):</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房均价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5.2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡,去化周期仅</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">6</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">个月;二手房学区房成交占比超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">50%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">(如金陵汇文学区房单价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">6.4</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新兴板块(江北核心区、江宁滨江):</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">均价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2.8</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡,成交面积占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">35%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,但投资属性弱化,自住需求占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">75%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊(六合、高淳):</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交均价</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">1.2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡,房票安置项目占比</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">40%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,去化依赖政策推动。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.板块价值分析</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">河西:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">金融产业集聚</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">南外分校落地,地价涨幅领跑全市(鼓楼小桃园地块溢价率</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">16.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">江宁:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需主力板块,金宁风华、金茂晓棠热销带动成交量居首(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">7.27</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万㎡)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">溧水:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">房票安置集中备案推动短期成交,但长期人口导入不足,库存压力显著。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">四、竞争格局</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.房企排名:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">全口径销售额</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">TOP3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">招商蛇口(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">13.81</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿)、华发股份(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">11.47</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿)、保利发展(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">8.93</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿),头部房企市占率提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">42%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">项目销售榜:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">金宸熙苑(秦淮区,</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">7.13</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿)、招商金陵序(河西,</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">4.79</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿)领跑,高端项目溢价率超周边</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">20%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.产品策略:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需型:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">主打小户型低总价(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">80-100</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡,</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">150</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万以下),集中在江宁、浦口。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">改善型:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">科技住宅(如华润云上润府)、四代住宅(阳台庭院化)成差异化卖点。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">五、客户需求与痛点</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.核心需求:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">教育配套:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">学区房成交周期缩短至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">90</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">天,鼓楼、玄武区教育资源稀缺性推高溢价。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">交通便利:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">地铁</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">5</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线、</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">10</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线二期开通预期带动沿线(城南、仙林)购房意愿提升</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.主要痛点:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">总价压力:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">主城区购房门槛达</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">300</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万,普通家庭月供收入占比超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">50%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,依赖“父母支持</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">组合贷”。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">交付风险:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊项目停工现象频发,客户对民营房企信任度下降,现房销售占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">25%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">六、风险与建议</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.风险提示:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">市场分化加剧:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊板块库存去化周期超</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">24</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">个月,存在价格下行风险;</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策不确定性:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">若房贷利率回调或限购重启,改善需求可能收缩。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.发展建议:</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">房企端:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">加大核心区土地储备,优化产品力(如绿色建筑、智能家居);</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策端:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">完善二手房“以旧换新”流转机制,试点共有产权房扩围;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">客户端:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">优先选择国企</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">央企项目,规避远郊非品牌开发商。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">七、未来展望</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.短期(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2025Q2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">):</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">“金三银四”行情可期,核心区改善盘(如河西招商臻境)或现“摇号热”;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策红利持续释放,预计二季度成交量环比增长</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">15%-20%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-top: 24px;margin-bottom: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.中长期(</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">2025-2026</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">):</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">产业驱动:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">低空经济、人工智能等新兴产业导入,江北研创园、江宁开发区或成新增长极;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">人口支撑:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">落户政策优化</span><span style="font-family:Calibri;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">都市圈协同。</span></span></p></li></ul><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">注:</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考。</span><br /></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0pt;text-indent: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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