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【客研月报 018】2025年1-2月：大连房地产客户研究月报

发布于 2025-03-03

<p><br /></p><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">一、市场概况</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 整体市场表现</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2025年1-2月，大连楼市呈现“核心资产结构性上涨、边缘板块流动性收缩”的特征。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">新房市场：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1月成交1829套，环比微增3%，均价13625元/㎡（同比+0.4%），头部项目贡献超50%成交量（保利、万科、中海TOP3）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">二手房市场：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">成交5766套（同比+122.5%），以价换量特征显著，均价14278元/㎡（同比-8%），现房优势吸引避险需求。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">库存去化：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">截至2月，全市商品住房去化周期约19个月，目标6月底降至18个月内，年底16个月内。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 政策与热点事件</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">公积金新政：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">首套及二套房首付统一降至20%，硕士、多子女家庭最高贷款额度提升40万元，绿色建筑购房额外支持20万元。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">城中村改造：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">计划2025年完成8000套改造，通过房票消化存量商品房不少于3000套。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">土拍分化：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区（中山、西岗）地块溢价成交（如华润高新园区地块溢价18%），近郊地块多以底价或流拍为主。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">二、客户画像分析</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 基础特征</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">年龄结构：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">主力购房群体为20-40岁（占比68.7%），其中30-40岁改善型需求占比提升至35%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">收入水平：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">超60%客户可承受总价50万以下房源，核心区高端客群（总价500万+）占比约12%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">职业分布：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">本地企业主、外企高管、技术人才为主，硕士及以上学历占比提升至18%（受人才购房券政策刺激）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 行为偏好</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">区域选择：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">83%客户倾向市内四区（沙河口、甘井子为主），金州、旅顺等近郊板块因价格优势吸引年轻刚需。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">产品需求：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区偏好120-150㎡三居室（占比45%），近郊以80-100㎡两居为主；绿色建筑、科技系统（如超低能耗标准）关注度提升。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">决策因素：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">教育配套（65%）、交通便利（58%）、现房/准现房（52%）为前三考量。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">三、区域市场对比</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 分区域表现</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区（中山、西岗、沙河口）：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">量价齐升，中山区1月成交均价26940元/㎡（同比+1%），东港板块保利天珺（3.8万/㎡）为销冠。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">近郊（甘井子、金州）：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">甘井子依托地铁5号线成交活跃，金州北九里依赖城中村改造去化，但库存压力大（去化周期超24个月）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">远</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><strong>郊（旅顺、普兰店）：</strong>旅顺开发区均价跌破6000元/㎡，以价换量为主；长兴岛因产业人口流入（恒力重工招工3万）逆势上涨至8000元/㎡。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 板块价值分析</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">东港商务区：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">国际配套+海景资源支撑高端溢价，保利天珺、绿城海韵晓风（3.5万/㎡）领跑。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">高新区：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">科技产业集聚+地铁覆盖，华润TOD地块（楼面价7419元/㎡）成为2025年潜力板块。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">金州北九里：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策驱动型板块，房票安置消化库存，但教育、商业配套滞后制约长期价值。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">四、竞争格局</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">房企集中度：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">保利、万科、中海占据销量TOP3，市占率超50%；地方国企（如大连地铁）通过联合拿地提升份额。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">产品分化：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区主打“科技+绿色”高端盘（如保利天珺超低能耗设计），近郊以标准化刚需产品为主。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">渠道变革：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">线上成交占比提升至35%（VR带看转化率22%），全民经纪人渗透率突破60%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">五、客户需求与痛点</span></strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 核心需求</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">自住升级：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">改善型客户关注空间模块化设计（如可变书房/儿童房）及社区智能化。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">避险偏好：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">现房、国企开发项目热度上升，规避期房交付风险（2024年大连“保交楼”完成41.2万套）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 主要痛点</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">交付焦虑：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">部分边缘板块项目停工风险仍存，客户对民营房企期房信任度低。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">价格僵局：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">近郊板块买卖双方价格预期差距扩大，促销效果边际递减（特价房去化率不足30%）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">配套滞后：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">金州、旅顺等新区教育、医疗资源不足，制约长期居住吸引力。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">六、风险与建议</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 风险提示</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">交付风险：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">中小房企资金链压力未完全缓解，需警惕远郊项目停工。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策波动：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">若二季度去化不及预期，地方或加码限价政策，挤压利润空间。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">库存高压：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">金州、开发区库存去化周期超20个月，存在价格踩踏风险。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 策略建议</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策端：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">优化人才购房券投放（如扩大至本科），加强预售资金监管穿透式管理。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">房企端：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区强化产品力（绿色建筑+科技赋能），近郊加速存量去化（联合城投平台以房票置换）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">客户端：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">针对改善需求推出“以小换大”税费补贴，提升二手房交易便利度。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">七、未来展望</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1. 短期（2025年Q2-Q4）</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策红利持续释放，核心区量价稳中有升（预计东港板块均价突破</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">4万/㎡），年中库存或降至18个月目标。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">近郊板块以价换量加速出清，房票安置、保障房建设对冲市场下行压力。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2. 中长期（2025-2026年）</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">市场分化加剧：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心资产金融化（如REITs试点）、远郊边缘化趋势不可逆。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">存量赛道崛起：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">城市更新（8000套城中村改造）、老旧小区改造（4527部电梯更新）成新增长点。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">长效机制完善：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">保障房体系（公租房+人才住房）占比提升至30%，绿色建筑全面普及（2025年新开工项目100%超低能耗）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">注：</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研，分析结论仅供参考。</span><br /></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0pt;text-indent: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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