【客研月报 028】2025年1-2月：厦门房地产客户研究月报

<p><br /></p><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">一、市场概况</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">1.整体市场表现</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交量：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2025</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">年</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1-2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月厦门一手住宅成交</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1540</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套，同比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">27%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">；</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月单月成交</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">600</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套，环比下降</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">36%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，但同比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">52%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。二手房市场活跃度更高，</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月二手住宅成交</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1199</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套，占比达</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">64.26%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格走势：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房均价同比下跌</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">16%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1-2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月均价</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">32805</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡），二手房均价环比下跌</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1.9%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，同比跌幅达</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">22.44%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。核心区域（如五缘湾、思明）价格相对坚挺，岛外刚需板块（如翔安、同安）价格承压明显。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">供需结构：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛内土地供应激增（同比</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">+370%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">），推动改善型产品主导市场；岛外以同安、翔安为主力，主打刚需和产城融合项目。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">2.政策与热点事件</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策松绑：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">全面取消限购限售，首付比例降至</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">15%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，公积金贷款额度提升至双职工</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">120</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元，房票政策撬动购房金额超</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">100</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">亿元。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">金融信号：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">中央释放财政赤字空间信号，但地方降息预期暂未兑现，市场观望情绪浓厚。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">热点事件：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房票政策成效显著（使用率</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">86%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">），同安、翔安贡献过半交易量；岛内将军祠地块起拍价</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">4.8</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡创纪录，预示未来高端市场竞争加剧。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">二、客户画像分析</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">1.客户基础特征</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">地域分布：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">本地改善客群集中于岛内（湖里、思明占比</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">32%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">），外地购房者占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">25%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，以福建周边城市（如漳州、泉州）及长三角投资客为主。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">年龄与家庭结构：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">35-45</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">岁家庭型客户占比超</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">60%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，多子女家庭因政策优惠（公积金加</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">20</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万额度）成为新房主力。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">2.行为偏好</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品选择：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛内客户偏好</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">120-143</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡改善型四房，青睐</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">TOD</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">项目（如海沧中心</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">TOD</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">）和低密生态住宅；岛外刚需客户聚焦</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">80-100</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡小三房，重视学区（如招商湾湖臻境）。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">决策因素：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格敏感度提高，</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">93</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">折以下促销房源去化快；现房销售试点推动二手房热度，部分客户转向规避期房交付风险。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">三、区域市场对比</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">1.分区域表现</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛内：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">湖里区（均价</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">58421</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡）和思明区（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">55616</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡）量价坚挺，依托成熟配套吸引高端客群；五缘湾二手房价企稳，与新房价差收窄。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛外：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">翔安（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">20380</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡）、同安（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">20411</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡）价格分化，同安因房票政策去化加快，翔安受地铁</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">号线延伸预期带动。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">2.板块价值分析</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">核心板块：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">岛内两岸金融中心、五缘湾定位高端改善，教育资源（如一中品牌）和生态资源（湿地公园）为溢价核心。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">潜力板块：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">集美东部新城（近软件园三期）承接码农刚需，翔安彭厝北依托厦航基地复制“五缘湾模式”。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">四、竞争格局</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房企表现：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">国央企主导市场，轨道、建发、国贸包揽成交金额前三，合计市占率超</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">50%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">；民企仅保利、中海等头部企业入围前十。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品策略：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛内项目加码“第四代住宅”（如建发宸启瑞湖），得房率</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">100%-103%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">；岛外主打“以价换量”，部分项目降至</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">1.24</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡（翔安大学城）。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">营销动态：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房企分销佣金提至</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">3%-5%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，个别项目推出“</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">60</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">天无理由退房”和精装补贴，但客户对降价预期强烈，促销效果有限。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">五、客户需求与痛点</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">1.核心需求</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">改善型客户：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">追求品质与配套，倾向现房或准现房，对学区、物业服务和生态资源要求高。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">刚需客户：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">总价敏感，偏好低首付、高杠杆产品，关注交通（地铁）和商业配套（如爱琴海购物中心）。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">2.主要痛点</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格博弈：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">买方普遍预期房价进一步回调，与卖方心理价差达</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">10%-15%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，导致成交周期延长。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">交付风险：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">部分岛外项目延期交付传闻加剧客户观望情绪，二手房占比提升至</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">64%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">六、风险与建议</span></strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">1.风险提示</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">政策传导滞后：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">降息预期未兑现，房票政策边际效应递减，或影响二季度去化。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">库存压力：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛外非核心区库存去化周期超</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">24</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">个月，同安、翔安部分项目面临价格踩踏风险。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">2.策略建议</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">房企端：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">加速岛内高端项目入市（如将军祠地块），岛外项目需捆绑产业、教育配套提升附加值。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">客户端：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">建议刚需客户关注</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">Q2-Q3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">促销窗口期，改善客户优先选择现房或国企开发项目。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;">七、未来展望</span></strong></span><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 24px;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">1.短期（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2025</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">年</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">Q2-Q3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">）</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">小阳春预期：</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:Cambria;">3</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月房企冲刺季度业绩，岛内新盘集中备案或推动成交量环比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">20%-30%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">，但价格仍以稳为主。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">政策变量：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">若中央降息落地或房票政策扩围，有望刺激改善需求释放。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">2.中长期（</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2025</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">年</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">Q4</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">及以后）</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">岛内高端化：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">10</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">宗优质地块入市后，新房均价或突破</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">8</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万元</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡，形成“豪宅圈层”。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">人口与产业驱动：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">2035</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">年常住人口目标</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">730</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万，软件园三期、翔安航空城等产业集聚将支撑刚性需求。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">风险与机遇并存：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">安商房集中入市（约</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">4</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">万套）或冲击二手房市场，但核心资产（如学区房、</span><span style="font-family:Cambria;">TOD</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">项目）保值性强。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Cambria;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul><p><span style="font-size: 14px;font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">注：本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研，分析结论仅供参考。</span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><h2 style="margin-left: 0pt;text-indent: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 0pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 14px;"><o:p></o:p></span></h2><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>