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【客研月报053】2025年1-3月：唐山房地产市场和客户研究月报

发布于 2025-04-08

<section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style=""><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style=""><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">01</span><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">市场概况</span></span></font></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">整体市场表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月，唐山房地产市场延续了</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年以来的调整态势，呈现“量价双弱”特征。根据历史数据，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月唐山新房成交面积同比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，均价同比下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.4%710</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，而</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年一季度受政策利好及春节后季节性回暖影响，市场跌幅收窄，但未实现同比转正。新建商品住宅成交均价约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8500-9000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，核心区域如路南区、路北区价格企稳，但外围区域仍依赖“以价换量”策略。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策与热点事件</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">政策宽松加码】唐山响应中央</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“因城施策”要求，优化公积金政策（如首付比例下调至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）、契税补贴及人才购房优惠，刺激刚需释放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;" data-pm-slice="3 3 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">保障房建设推进：</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">】025</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月，唐山启动首批配售型保障房项目，以周边商品房价格的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">供应，严格封闭管理，缓解中低收入群体住房压力。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">土地市场分化】核心地块供应稀缺，房企聚焦优质地段，但整体土地成交规模同比下滑，地价涨幅趋缓。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">02</span><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;">客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">基础特征</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">年龄结构】主力购房群体为</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁，占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，以本地户籍刚需及改善型家庭为主。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">收入水平】家庭年收入集中在</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8-15</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元，对总价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-150</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元的房源接受度较高。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">区域偏好】购房者更关注教育资源（如路北区）、交通便利性（地铁沿线）及成熟配套区域。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行为偏好</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">产品需求】偏好三居室户型（占比</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">），注重得房率及功能性空间设计；绿色建筑、智能化配置关注度提升。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">决策周期】</span></font></span></span></font></span><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3-6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，价格敏感度提高，促销活动对成交拉动效果显著。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">03</span><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">分区域表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">核心区（路北、路南）】成交均价约</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2-1.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，以改善型需求为主，库存去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，价格抗跌性强。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">近郊（丰南、开平）】均价</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7000-9000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，依赖刚需客群，去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，部分项目以“工抵房”“特价房”加速回款。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">远郊（古冶、曹妃甸）】价格同比下跌</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5%-8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，以本地客群为主，去化压力大，部分项目暂停新推。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">板块价值分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">高铁新城板块】依托交通枢纽规划，吸引品牌房企入驻，但配套成熟度不足，成交依赖政策红利。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">南湖生态城板块】环境资源稀缺，高端项目溢价明显，但去化速度放缓。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">老城区板块】配套成熟但土地稀缺，以二手房交易为主，新房供应集中于旧改项目。<span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">04</span></span></font></span><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-weight: bold;">竞争格局</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">头部房企主导】保利、中海等央企凭借资金优势布局核心地块，市占率提升至</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">；本地房企（如唐山城投）依托政企合作参与保障房及旧改。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">产品差异化】高端项目主打</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“科技住宅”“生态社区”（如金隅·花溪云锦模式），刚需盘强化性价比及快周转策略。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">05</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">热销项目分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;" data-pm-slice="3 3 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">中海</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">·寰宇天下（路北区）】主打</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">98-125</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡三居室，精装交付，依托地铁及学区资源，一季度去化率超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">万科翡翠公园（丰南区）】以</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“低密洋房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">下沉庭院”为卖点，均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8500</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，通过渠道分销及首付分期加速去化。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;" data-pm-slice="3 3 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">唐山城投</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">·悦澜湾（保障房项目）】单价</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡（周边商品房均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡），吸引政策敏感型客户，开盘认购率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">06</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">专家与机构观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">中指研究院】唐山楼市处于</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“筑底期”，政策宽松下需求缓慢释放，但库存压力仍需</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2-3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年消化。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">住建部门】未来将加大存量用地盘活力度，严控新增商办用地，引导房企转向租赁及保障房领域。</span></font></span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">07</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">需求】高性价比房源、优质学区、现房或准现房交付保障。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">痛点】</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">对期房交付风险担忧加剧，现房偏好度提升；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">外围区域配套落地滞后，影响居住体验；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">房贷利率波动导致月供压力不确定性。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">08</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">库存高压】全市商品住宅去化周期达</span></font></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，远郊区域风险突出。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">资金链承压】中小房企销售回款慢，债务违约风险上升。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">政策端】进一步放宽限购、提高公积金贷款额度，定向补贴改善型需求。</span></font></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">企业端】加快现房销售转型，联合金融机构推出</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“保交付”保险产品。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">【</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" data-pm-slice="1 1 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;span&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;style&quot;:&quot;mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;; font-family:宋体; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;; font-size:10.5000pt; mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;},&quot;node&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;font&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;face&quot;:&quot;宋体&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]">产品端】强化户型功能性与社区服务，探索</span></font></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“保障房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">商品房”混合开发模式。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 50px;color: rgb(124, 139, 9);font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">09</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;font-weight: bold;">未来展望</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;" data-pm-slice="3 3 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><br /></span></font></span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;" data-pm-slice="3 3 [&quot;para&quot;,{&quot;tagName&quot;:&quot;p&quot;,&quot;attributes&quot;:{&quot;class&quot;:&quot;MsoNormal&quot;,&quot;data-pm-slice&quot;:&quot;0 0 []&quot;},&quot;namespaceURI&quot;:&quot;http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml&quot;}]"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.短期（</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Q2-Q4</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">）</span></span></font></span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">政策宽松叠加</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“银四”旺季，成交量有望环比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%-15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，但价格仍以稳为主；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">核心区高端项目热度延续，远郊以价换量仍是主流。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.中长期（</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025-2026</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年）</span></span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">市场分化加剧，核心区房价温和上涨（年均</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">），远郊持续调整；</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">保障房供应占比提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，推动市场向“双轨制”转型。</span></font></span></p><section style="text-align: left;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;float: none;display: inline !important;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">（注：本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研，分析结论仅供参考）</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span leaf="">*</span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, 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