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【客研月报087】2025年1-4月:常州房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-05-13

<p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一、整体市场表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月,常州房地产市场呈现“量价趋稳、分化加剧”的特征。据常州市统计局及第三方监测机构数据显示,全市新建商品住宅成交面积约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">85</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万平方米,同比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年同期微降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,环比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年四季度增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,显示春节后市场逐步回暖。供应端新增预售房源约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套,同比持平,库存去化周期为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,较</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年末缩短</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,主城区核心板块库存压力较小。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">政策环境保持</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“稳预期、促刚需”基调,延续了</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年四季度出台的优化公积金贷款额度政策(首套最高可贷</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元)、放宽人才购房补贴范围等举措。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月,常州经开区获批省级“城市更新试点”,推动区域旧改项目加速落地,间接带动部分置换需求释放。热点事件方面,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月常州地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线正式开工,沿线青龙、湖塘板块关注度显著提升。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">基础特征:</span>购房客户以本地改善型需求为主导(占比约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),年龄集中在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">72%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),家庭年收入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-50</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元占比超六成。新市民(非户籍常住人口)购房占比提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">28%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,主要集中于新北区、武进高新区等产业聚集区。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行为偏好:</span>三房户型成交占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">63%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120-140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米为改善主流面积段。超七成客户关注教育资源配套(如天宁局小分校、外国语学校等),五成客户对社区智能化设施提出明确要求。线上看房工具使用率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">89%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但最终决策仍依赖线下实地考察(平均看房次数</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">次)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">天宁区:</span>核心地段稀缺性支撑价格坚挺,文化宫、翠竹板块均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-3.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米,以高端改善项目为主。红梅板块因老城更新推进,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米小高层产品去化周期缩短至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新北区:</span>高铁新城板块依托国际医院、总部经济园规划,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米以上户型成交占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">48%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,价格同比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。春江镇受产业人口带动,刚需项目去化率超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">武进区:</span>湖塘老城板块库存较高,开发商通过赠送车位、物业费减免加速去化。西太湖板块依托生态资源,低密洋房产品受常州本地及周边城市养老客群青睐。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">钟楼区:</span>青枫公园板块依托地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线,小户型投资属性减弱,自住需求占比提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">75%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。邹区镇因物流产业升级,外来务工人员购房占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">34%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、市场价格走势</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">全市新建住宅成交均价为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.85</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米,同比微涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。区域分化显著:新北区受土拍拉动上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(地价占比升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">42%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),而金坛滨湖新城因供应过剩,部分项目降价促销(折扣幅度</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。二手房市场挂牌均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.62</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米,议价空间收窄至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,学区房(如博爱路小学周边)价格保持坚挺。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、竞争格局分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">头部房企竞争白热化,华润、保利、万科三家市占率合计达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">39%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。本土房企如新城控股通过“社区商业</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">住宅”模式在乡镇板块保持优势。产品设计呈现两大趋势:核心区项目强化会所、私宴厅等高端配套;近郊项目主打“第四代住宅”概念,通过垂直绿化提升溢价。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、热销项目解析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">华润置地·万象府(天宁区):</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月单盘销售额破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,依托文化宫商圈区位,主打</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">143-195</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米科技住宅,装标达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米,客户中超六成为私营企业主。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">龙湖·春江天玺(新北区):</span>高铁北站</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">800</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">米范围内,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">98-128</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米全能户型实现当月开盘去化率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">92%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,购房者中</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁以下占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">58%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">碧桂园·江南映月(武进区):</span>以“</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">米挑高阳台</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">可变空间”设计吸引年轻家庭,精装交付单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.65</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元,低于板块均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,首月签约超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">200</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">七、专家观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">江苏省房地产协会指出:</span>常州市场正从</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“增量开发”转向“存量运营”,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年土地出让将更侧重&nbsp;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD&nbsp;</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">综合开发用地。中指院华东分院认为,随着常州新能源产业(理想汽车、比亚迪电池)扩产,产业人口导入或成为下半年市场关键变量。本地金融机构调研显示,二套改善客户贷款咨询量环比增加</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">17%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,反映政策宽松效果逐步显现。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">八、客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心诉求:</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">①地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">公里内通勤便利性(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">67%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);②优质公办教育资源覆盖(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">82%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);③社区医疗、养老配套完善度(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">53%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">主要痛点包括:</span>部分板块商业配套落地滞后(如钟楼新城)、精装交付标准争议(客诉占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">31%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)、二套房利率仍高于周边无锡等城市。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">九、风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险提示:</span>①土地市场过热可能引发调控加码;②经开区、金坛区库存去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,存在价格战风险;③房企资金链压力向三四线城市传导。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">策略建议:</span>开发商应聚焦产品力提升,控制</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120-144</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">平方米主力户型成本;政府需加快重点板块市政配套落地;购房者可关注地铁三期规划沿线价值洼地。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十、未来展望</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年下半年):</span>预计市场将延续温和复苏态势,全年成交量同比增幅或达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5%-8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,天宁、新北核心区房价存在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">上涨空间,远郊板块以价换量仍是主基调。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中长期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025-2026</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年):</span>随着长三角科创走廊建设深化,常州“新能源之都”定位将吸引更多高端人才定居,住房需求结构向“品质改善</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">人才安居”双轮驱动转变。智慧社区、绿色建筑标准升级将加速行业洗牌,具备综合运营能力的房企将占据更大市场份额。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(注:本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span 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