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【客研月报099】2025年1-4月:郑州房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-05-14

<p style="margin-top: 16px;"></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一、整体市场表现</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">市场表现</span></span><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">:</span>2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月,郑州房地产市场呈现“政策托底、区域分化、品质升级”的态势。一季度商品房销售备案面积达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">165</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万平方米,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,扣除政府回购因素后实际增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。新房成交均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10861</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,同比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.37%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;二手房成交均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8969</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,同比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6.71%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但核心区域价格保持稳定。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月市场延续回暖,主城区新盘如华润润府二期、招商林屿境等项目开盘即售罄,带动销售金额</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">房企合计销售额达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">168.01</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策层面:</span>郑州市延续</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年购房补贴、降首付(首套</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)、降利率(商贷</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)、公积金贷款额度提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">130</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元等政策,叠加“以旧换新”全年目标</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套(国有平台收购</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套),加速库存去化。房票安置政策深化,航空港区通过房票成交超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2730</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套,带动新房销售额超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元。此外,保障性住房体系完善,人才公寓新增投运</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">21</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个项目约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套,覆盖金水、郑东等核心区。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">基础特征:</span>购房主力为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁家庭,占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,家庭年收入集中在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15-25</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元区间。改善型需求占比提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,首次置业占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,投资客降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。新就业青年(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25-35</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁)受人才公寓政策吸引,占比约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行为偏好:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上户型去化速度同比提升</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,高端改善(≥</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">47%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,偏好低密洋房、第四代住宅(溢价率超周边</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。刚需客群关注“得房率超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">”项目,如招商林屿境凭借高实用面积实现</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">开</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">罄。教育资源(如省实验中学)、地铁通达性(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线)为决策核心因素。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.分区域表现:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">郑东新区:</span>新房均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">26800</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡(北龙湖高端项目</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">37000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡),二手房抗跌性强,依托金融岛、高铁东站产业集聚,去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">金水区:</span>改善型需求主导,美盛教育港湾、金投豫发豫园等项目单月销售额破亿,新房均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">19600</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,二手房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10564</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">远郊区域:</span>中牟、新郑库存去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7000-8500</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,依赖“以价换量”策略,但配套滞后导致去化承压。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.板块价值分析:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心板块:</span>北龙湖、高铁东站凭借产业和商业配套(万象城、山姆会员店),房价涨幅预<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">期</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">5%-8%</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">。</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">潜力板块:</span>高新区(比亚迪产业园)、航空港区(智能终端产业)吸引年轻刚需,但配套落地缓慢。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险板块:</span>上街区、登封市因人口外流,价格同比跌幅超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、市场价格走势</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">新房均价稳中有升,主城区</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14300</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,环比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10.75%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,郑东新区领涨(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30771</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)。二手房市场“以价换量”特征明显,挂牌量超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">13</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">为老旧小区),部分业主降价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5-10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">加速置换,但学区房价格坚挺,均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">22287</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、竞争格局分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">头部房企市场份额集中,招商蛇口(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">13.88</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)、正商集团(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11.59</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)、万科(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9.78</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)位列销售金额前三。本土国企如郑州地铁、城发集团凭借资源优势崛起,正商集团在货币化安置助力下销售面积同比增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。产品竞争转向“质价比”,现房销售占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,倒逼房企强化工程管控。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、热销项目分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">招商林屿境:</span>全年销售额超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">98</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡户型得房率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">110%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,依托房票政策实现清盘。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">金投豫发豫园:</span>一季度销冠,主打</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120-140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡改善户型,教育资源加持,单月销售额</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.85</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">华润润府二期:</span>高端改善标杆,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">139-205</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡户型单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-3.1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,首开</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">小时售罄。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">七、专家与机构观点</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中指研究院:</span>政策边际效应递减,未来需关注结构性机会,建议房企转向租金回报率高于</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">的租赁项目。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">住建部:</span>强调“好房子”标准,推动绿色建筑(二星级以上)、智慧社区普及,倒逼行业升级。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">纬房研究院:</span>郑州房价定基指数</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">72.54</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(基准</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2023</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年),同比跌幅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10.95%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,短期或延续“阴跌”,中长期需政策强力刺激。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">八、客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心需求:</span>改善客群追求低密社区、智能家居(覆盖率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);刚需客群偏好地铁沿线、低总价(<</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">主要痛点:</span>远郊项目医疗、商业配套滞后;非品牌房企交付延期风险(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年待交付</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8779</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">九、风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.风险提示:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">远郊库存压力(航空港区去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">31</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月);</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">金融风险:</span>房企融资成本上升,保交楼资金监管压力。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.建议:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企端:</span>聚焦核心区改善产品,强化现房销售信用背书;</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策端:</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">加速地铁</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">6-8</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">号线建设,完善郊区教育配套;</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">购房者:</span>优先选择</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“房票适用”项目,规避远郊高库存板块。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十、未来展望</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025Q2-Q3</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span>政策红利持续释放,二季度销售环比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10-15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,主城区均价或突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,郑东新区高端项目挑战</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中长期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025-2030</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span>城市更新与</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">开发(如地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">19</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线)成增长点;产业驱动(超聚变全球总部、比亚迪基地)新增就业超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万,带动住房需求增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span></p><span style="font-family: Calibri;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 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