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【客研月报102】2025年1-4月:厦门房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-05-14

<p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一</span></span><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">、</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">整体市场表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">量价特征:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年第一季度厦门商品住宅成交面积约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡,同比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年同期下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,主要受春节假期及市场观望情绪影响;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月成交量回升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡,环比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但同比仍下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。成交均价稳定在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡(岛内</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,岛外</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡),同比微涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策环境:</span>延续</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">房住不炒</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">基调,厦门出台公积金贷款额度优化政策(双职工家庭最高</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元),并扩大保障性租赁住房供给(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年计划新增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套)。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月央行宣布降准</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.25</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点,首套房贷利率降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.85%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,刺激部分改善需求释放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">热点事件:</span>厦门入选全国首批</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">完整社区</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">试点城市,推动</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">分钟生活圈建设;地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线集美段正式通车,同安进出岛通道启动施工;五缘湾片区挂牌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗商住用地,楼面价突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">基础特征:</span>本地客群占比提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">58%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),其中岛内改善客户占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25-35</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁首置客群占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">38%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,较</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点;家庭年收入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万以上群体购房占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">27%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行为偏好:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">商业</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">成为核心关注点(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">78%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">客户优先考虑);三房户型需求占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">52%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,四房需求提升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">33%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(二孩政策效应显现);超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">客户选择组合贷,贷款成数集中在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60-70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;线上</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">VR</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">看房使用率突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">85%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但最终决策仍需线下实地考察。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛内双核:</span>思明区依托教育资源优势,均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月;湖里区五缘湾板块受商业配套升级驱动,成交量同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛外四区:</span>翔安区(南部新城)依托第三东通道建设规划,成交量占比达岛外</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但库存去化周期延长至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月;集美区受益于软件园三期扩容(新增就业人口约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万),</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡产品去化加速;海沧马銮湾板块因供应量过大(在售项目</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个),价格出现</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">回调。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、市场价格走势</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岛内核心区(筼筜湖、五缘湾)价格保持坚挺,年均涨幅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;岛外同安环东海域(特房银溪墅府等项目)因配套滞后,部分项目降价促销(降幅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5-8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月全市二手房挂牌价环比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,议价空间扩大至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5-8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、竞争格局分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企梯队:</span>建发、国贸、联发占据</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">市场份额,央企保利、中海加速布局(保利</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年新增土储</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品分化:</span>岛内项目趋向</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">大平层</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">会所服务</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,岛外聚焦</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">低总价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">高得房率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、热销项目解析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">建发四里项目(思明):</span>单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,首开去化率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">92%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,核心卖点为双名校划片及建发</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">王府中式</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">产品力。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">保利国贸天琴(湖里):</span>五缘湾南板块,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">143</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡四房两周售罄,客群</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">为本地企业高管。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中海花湾(翔安):</span></span><span leaf="">依托地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线延伸段预期,以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">79</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡三房(总价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">230</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万起)吸引刚需客,月均去化</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">七、专家观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">厦门大学不动产研究中心指出:</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">市场进入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">'</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">量缩价稳</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">'</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">新常态,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年成交量预计同比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10-15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但核心地段资产仍具保值性。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">戴德梁行建议开发商:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">需重视社区智慧化改造(如加装新能源充电桩)提升产品溢价。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">八、客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.核心诉求:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岛内客户要求</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">教育资源确定性</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">购房者要求写入合同);</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岛外客户更关注</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">交付质量保障</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.主要痛点:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">总价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">600</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万以下岛内选择稀缺</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">部分板块商业配套落地滞后。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">九、风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.风险预警:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岛外库存去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,存在价格战风险;</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">房企资金压力加剧(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年厦门房企到期债务超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">200</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.应对建议:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">开发商需严控拿地成本(建议岛外项目地货比不超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">加强现房销售试点。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十、未来展望</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">下半年):</span>岛内土拍热度维持,岛外以价换量持续;二手房挂牌量可能突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套,置换需求进一步释放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中长期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2026-2030</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span>金砖创新基地建设带动高端人才住房需求;保障房与商品房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">双轨制</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">深化,预计</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2026</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年保障房占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;翔安国际机场(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2026</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年通航)重塑临空经济区价值。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;"><span leaf="">*</span></span><span 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