官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

【客研月报103】2025年1-4月:贵阳房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-05-14

<p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一、整体市场表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月贵阳楼市呈现</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">量价趋稳、区域分化</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">特征,主城区网签总金额达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">89.96</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,成交面积</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">93.43</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万方,套数</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8,685</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套,均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9,628</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月市场超预期复苏,住宅销量环比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">74%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,季末节点性需求释放叠加政策利好驱动效果显著。但</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月商品房网签面积环比下降超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,呈现</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">新房价稳量缩、二手房量价双降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">态势,核心区与郊区差异加剧。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">政策端推出首付比例降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">、公积金贷款额度提至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万、契税返消费券等组合拳,但购房者对降利率等核心政策仍有更高期待,购买力释放不足。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.基础特征:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">客群以本地刚需(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元总价段)和改善型(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">140-200</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元)为主,占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,地州购房者占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,省外旅居客群占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年龄结构年轻化,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25-40</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁以下青年购房比例同比提升</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.83</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.行为偏好:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">产品选择聚焦</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80-140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡高层(占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">92%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),洋房、别墅需求集中于观山湖核心区。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">决策三要素:</span>地段(观山湖</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">南明核心区)、现房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">准现房(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">购房者关注)、教育资源(如华东师范大学附属项目)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.分区域表现:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">观山湖区:</span>量价双冠,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月成交</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9.87</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万方,均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10,981</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,占全市</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">份额。中铁阅山湖、洋浦·觀山玉等</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个项目入围</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,改善需求占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">南明区:</span>均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8,744</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,首钢·贵州之光支撑刚需市场(占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),华润万象城带动商业配套升级。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">白云区:</span>均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9,823</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,建发金融北城贡献区域</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">销量,低密产品受改善客群青睐。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">双龙经济区:</span>均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8,387</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,天瀑·南明府以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.61</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万方位列近郊销冠,低总价旅居需求突出。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.板块价值:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心板块:</span>观山东(中铁阅山湖)、金融北城(建发)依托交通</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">商业资源溢价能力领先。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">潜力板块:</span>龙洞堡(双龙)借低密生态住宅和政策倾斜成增量焦点;三马片区受基建制约短期热度有限。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、市场价格走势</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">整体均价保持</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9,500-10,000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡区间波动,但区域分化显著:</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">观山湖(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10,981</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)>白云(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9,823</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)>南明(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8,744</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)>双龙(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8,387</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">高端项目拉动</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">均价上浮</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,如洋浦·觀山玉成交价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10,655</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,而外围板块部分项目跌破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4,000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、竞争格局分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企梯队:</span>央企</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">国企占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">52.07%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,中铁置业(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.38</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)、龙湖(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6.32</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)、中国铁建(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.71</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)位列前三,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP10</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">集中度同比微增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.21</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品策略:</span>头部房企聚焦核心区差异化产品(如中铁阅山湖的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">核心地段</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">教育</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">模式),中小房企通过文旅盘等特色项目突围。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">市场份额:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">项目贡献</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">59.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">成交额,建发金融北城、洋浦·觀山玉、中铁阅山湖包揽前三,单盘月销破亿成常态。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、热销项目分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中铁阅山湖:</span>以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.08</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元蝉联销冠,主打</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">核心地段</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">华东师范附属学校</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">37688</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡成交面积、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">311</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套销量验证改善需求韧性。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">洋浦·觀山玉:</span>高端改善标杆,实景展示</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">五大服务体系,单月销售额突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.05</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">21913</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡销量领跑观山湖。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">首钢·贵州之光:</span>南明区性价比之王,地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">商业配套驱动,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月单月成交</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">188</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元总价段占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">七、专家与机构观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">铭腾机构:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月冲高后</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月进入淡季回调,全年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">低开高走</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">趋势明确,政策刺激(如契税补贴)仍是关键变量。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">正合地产:</span>市场分化加剧,观山湖</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">白云核心区抗风险能力强,花溪等近郊需警惕</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">19</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月去化周期压力。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">住建部智库:</span>贵阳需加快三马等板块基建落地,优化预售资金监管,防范中小房企交付风险。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">八、客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.核心需求:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">现房</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">准现房占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,教育配套需求达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,低首付政策关注度</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年轻客群偏好地铁沿线小三房(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60-100</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元),改善群体追求</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上智能绿色住宅。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.主要痛点:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">区域配套滞后(如三马路网)、价格信息不透明、中小房企交付风险。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">二手房市场流动性差,核心区次新房与老旧小区价格分化加剧,部分区域去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">28</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">九、风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.风险提示:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">库存压力:</span>全省商品房待售面积</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1,823</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡,非住宅类占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">41%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,南明区去化周期达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策依赖:</span>市场回暖高度依赖信贷宽松,若经济复苏乏力或政策退出,价格波动风险加剧。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.策略建议:</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企端:</span>聚焦核心区差异化产品(康养</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">科技住宅),利用</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">白名单</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">融资政策降低资金成本。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政府端:</span>加速城市更新(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年计划投入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">460</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)、完善房票安置机制,强化</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">人房地钱</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">"</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">联动。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #3daad6;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十、未来展望</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.短期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025Q2-Q4</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">政策红利(公积金新政</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">以旧换新)支撑销量,均价维持</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">9,500-10,000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡区间,观山湖</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">双龙为增长极。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">预计核心区二手房流动性提升,带动新房市场结构性调整,外围板块价格或回调</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%-15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.中长期(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2026-2030</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">城市能级提升(人口净流入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">产业升级)驱动市场扩容,智慧社区</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">绿色建筑成竞争关键。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">轨道交通网络(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">S2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线延伸)重塑板块价值,大数据产业带(贵安新区)催生</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">144</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上改善户型需求</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;caret-color: red;"><span leaf="">*</span></span><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 16px 8px 0px;outline: 0px;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;"><span leaf="">加入我们一起学习</span></span></p><p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin: 16px 8px 0px;outline: 0px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;caret-color: red;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-decoration: none solid rgb(127, 127, 127);"><span leaf="">Join our study group</span></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-imgfileid="100036047" data-ratio="0.4595300261096606" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlXfAQF3A26suo6p9w00eMZoyV7m9VamRjB8Rn2faCKibWCNNaATXll7jepE6jOCfgicm6dsIZH13Zg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="383"></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;DeepSeek 深度融合地产实操课</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp; &nbsp;<img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100036054" data-ratio="0.9777777777777777" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlXfAQF3A26suo6p9w00eMZA6slk3reAoDIyH2bXdmuAQicGJGalicdZIUSDHib8E95LVrZXCic3z5DZA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="135" style="text-align: center;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 12px;"><span leaf="">DeepSeek 深度融合公务员实操课</span></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100036055" data-ratio="0.9849624060150376" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlXfAQF3A26suo6p9w00eMZgJckNT1BQkkhCEibc2ic9hp4LUfwAshhwWEUmkgRFEYxPDyzVBCYDkGw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="133" style="text-align: center;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-top: 16px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100036069" data-ratio="0.43431221020092736" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/VXjHib6YROwlXfAQF3A26suo6p9w00eMZiaqkp43RyDGDbI8AlaicupWn33G6adtQibTgrOxS4vbrDzLBEOZ1L8ulg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="647" style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;width: 578px;height: 251px;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 16px;"><section style="display: none;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-top: 16px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库