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【客研月报104】2025年1-5月:北京房地产市场与客户研究月报 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2025年06月05日 10时21分 か℃簡簡單單

发布于 2025-06-05

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一、市场整体表现</span></span></font><font face="宋体"></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">成交量与趋势</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新房:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月累计网签量同比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">22.14%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月单月网签</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3045</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套(环比降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,同比增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">13%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">二手房:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月累计网签量</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月网签</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14277</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套(环比降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8.3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,同比涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">特征:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月降息后日均成交量激增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">58.26%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,政策刺激效果显著;市场呈“先抑后扬”,节后周均成交高于</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格走势深度分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count:1;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt;"><tbody><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="93" width="93" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">类型</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="475" width="475" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">表现</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td data-colwidth="93" width="93" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">新房价格</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="475" width="475" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">58,403</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡(同比涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,环比降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),主因海淀高端项目集中签约过峰;核心区西城同比涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.4%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15.36</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡),远郊房山同比跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.37</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr><td data-colwidth="93" width="93" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">二手房价格</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="475" width="475" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月挂牌均价环比降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,同比跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11.64%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;议价空间扩大</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.68</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点至年内最大,“以价换量”主导市场。核心学区房半年单价涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,但“老破小”跌幅显著</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">房企销售额</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1306.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元,中海、华润、保利市场份额超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;土地市场热度回升,海淀树村地块溢价率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11.95%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(楼面价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10.23</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、政策环境与金融支持</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.限购优化</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">非京籍五环内社保要求</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年→</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年,五环外→</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年;高层次人才社保满</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年可购两套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">多子女家庭二套房享首套政策,公积金额度上浮</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.金融松绑</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">首付比例:首套</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">、二套五环内</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">五环外</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;首套房贷利率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.05%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(历史低位)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">公积金新政:余额可签约前提取用于首付,激活改善需求(占比升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、供需关系与区域分化</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">供需结构</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt;"><tbody><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="112" width="112" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">指标</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="456" width="456" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">表现</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="112" width="112" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">供应</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="456" width="456" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月住宅新开工面积</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">375.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),但新房上市量同比降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">66.48%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="112" width="112" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">需求结构</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="456" width="456" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以内刚需占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">21.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月↑</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);改善型(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90-200</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)占主导(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">74.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="112" width="112" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">库存压力</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="456" width="456" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">远郊去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月(房山、顺义),核心区高端项目缩至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域分化特征</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心区(东城、西城、海淀):</span>学区房溢价支撑价格(海淀万柳书院均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14.08</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡),去化快。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">近郊(朝阳、丰台):</span>亦庄经开区依托产业外溢(集成电路</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">生物医药),去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月;部分板块因竞争降价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5-8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">远郊(房山、密云):</span>库存高企</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">无产业支撑,房山均价同比跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,推“首付分期”促销。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、客户特征与行为偏好</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.基础画像</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35-40</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁改善需求超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">);科技</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">金融从业者占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">支付能力:</span>主城区承受</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">600</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-1000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万,近郊</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">300</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-500</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.决策偏好</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品需求:</span>三居室为主(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),精装、绿色科技住宅受青睐(如海淀四季青地块)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心因素:</span>交通便利性(地铁</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">公里内)>教育资源(学区房溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%-20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)>社区配套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">信息渠道:</span>线上平台(贝壳、安居客)使用率超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、机构与专家观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期预判(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025Q2-Q3</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">)</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中指研究院:</span>政策宽松延续,核心城市房价分化加剧(核心区微涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1%-2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,远郊或再跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">麦田房产:</span>二手房“以价换量”持续,业主价格让步增大,带看量环比下降反映观望情绪升温。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">北京链家:</span>改善客群“慢入市”与刚需“韧性”并存,海淀价格波动属正常。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中长期趋势</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">乐观派(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">S&amp;P Global</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span>政策支持下,新房价格或于</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025H2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">触底回升,一线城市表现优于全国。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">谨慎派(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">IMF</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">):</span>经济增速放缓或冲击远郊市场,房企流动性风险(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">Q2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">债券到期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">300</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元)需警惕。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">购房策略建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><table style="border-collapse:collapse;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-top-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-right-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-bottom-alt:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insideh:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-border-insidev:0.5000pt solid windowtext;mso-padding-alt:0.0000pt 5.4000pt 0.0000pt 5.4000pt;"><tbody><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="85" width="85" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">群体</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="483" width="483" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-width: 1pt;border-style: solid;border-color: windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">策略</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="85" width="85" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">刚需</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="483" width="483" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">优选地铁沿线低总价房源(昌平回龙观、大兴义和庄),规避远郊。</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="85" width="85" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">改善</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="483" width="483" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">关注核心区</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“四好社区”(地段</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">品质</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">服务),如海淀四季青地块。</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:28.3500pt;"><td data-colwidth="85" width="85" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">投资</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td data-colwidth="483" width="483" valign="center" style="padding: 0pt 5.4pt;border-left: 1pt solid windowtext;border-right: 1pt solid windowtext;border-top: none;border-bottom: 1pt solid windowtext;"><p style="text-align:center;"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">回避非核心区(流动性差),学区房警惕政策收紧风险。</span></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、未来展望与风险警示</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.机遇</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">城市多中心深化:</span>亦庄经开区、南城临空经济区产业外溢带动需求。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策托底:</span>房贷利率低位</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">城中村改造加速,支撑市场韧性。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.风险</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房企流动性:</span>中型房企债券集中到期(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">Q2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">300</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元),交付风险上升。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域分化:</span>远郊无产业区库存压力持续(房山去化周期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策不确定性:</span>学区政策收紧或冲击核心区房价预期。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-top: 16px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: 宋体;font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.476px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 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