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【客研月报108】2025年1-5月：成都房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-06-05

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">一、整体市场表现：温和复苏中分化加剧</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月，成都房地产市场在政策持续宽松与市场自我调节双重作用下，呈现出温和复苏与内部分化并行的态势。从交易量来看，全市新建商品住宅成交总量达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45904</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套，同比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.79%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，显示出市场基本面保持稳健。二手房市场表现更为强劲，累计成交</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">103881</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套，同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">22.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，占总成交量的比重攀升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">77.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，创历史新高。值得注意的是，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月单月新房成交量出现环比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">16.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，这主要源于供应端收缩——当月新增供应仅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">76.97</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡，环比大降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">38%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">从价格走势观察，成都市场呈现出</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">结构性分化特征：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新房价格稳中有升：</span>一季度新建住宅成交均价达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.99</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，同比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.03%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月受高端项目集中入市影响，价格环比续涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.12%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，同比涨幅达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.41%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">二手房持续“以价换量”：</span>尽管成交量维持高位，但二手住宅均价同比下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.24%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，环比跌幅扩大至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.71%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。挂牌量持续攀升（截至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">521.7</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套，较年初增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）迫使业主降价出售，尤其非核心区域房源降价幅度普遍超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">市场分化不仅体现在新旧房源之间，还表现在不同产品类型和区域上。</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">改善型项目成为新房市场主力，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100-140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡户型占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">53%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">180</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上大户型需求持续增加。而外围区域库存压力显著，近郊去化周期约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，远郊更长达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">19</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，与核心区（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5-8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月）形成鲜明对比。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">二、政策与热点事件：宽松政策持续加码</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.关键政策演变</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">限购全面解除：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">29</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">日起，成都全面取消住房限购，不再审核购房资格，不限制购买套数。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">金融政策宽松：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月，首付比例统一降至最低</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，首套房利率最低至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.0%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">LPR-50BP</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。公积金贷款同步放宽，双缴存家庭最高额度提至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元，利率降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.6%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">土地供应收缩：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">20</span>25</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年住宅用地计划供应</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6900</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亩，同比大幅减少</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35.21%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，践行“提质降量”导向。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">“以旧换新”支持：</span>多区推出换房激励，如锦江区发放</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套消费券，青羊区提供</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">天解约保护期，武侯区给予最高</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元现金补贴。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.重大热点事件</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">轨道交通升级：</span>地铁五期规划获批，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线三期、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">27</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">号线等线路开工，带动龙潭寺</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">等板块价值提升。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产业园区加速建设：</span>天府国际生物城、东部新区未来科技城等产业聚集区发展迅猛，吸引高端人才近</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万，创造住房需求超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6500</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">“好房子”标准落地：</span>四川省发布《好住房设计导则》和《好住房评价标准》，推动产品力升级，新规项目得房率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">102-104%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，刺激改善需求释放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">三、土拍市场分析：核心地块争夺白热化</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月，成都土地市场呈现 “核心高热、外围平稳” 的显著分化格局，共成交涉宅用地</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">38</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">宗，总金额超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">300</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元，平均溢价率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">28.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，位居全国前列。核心区多宗地块刷新纪录，而郊区多以底价成交，反映房企投资策略更趋谨慎。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">央国企聚焦核心：</span>华润、招商等企业重仓核心地块，如华润</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20400</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡摘得成华区槐树店地块，溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">51.1%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">民企活跃度回升：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月成交地块中民企获取比例达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，如兴唐地产以溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20.66%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">竞得金牛区</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">62</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亩地块。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">平台公司托底外围：</span>简阳、青白江等区域地块多由地方国企底价获取，如成都交投善成拿下简阳</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55.79</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亩地块。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">土地市场热度分化与供应缩减直接相关。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年“</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5+2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">”区域宅地供应占比下降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">32%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，稀缺性推升竞价烈度，而新六区供应占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">68%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，但地价涨幅温和（同比仅涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">四、客户画像分析：改善主导、理性决策</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.客户基础特征</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年成都购房主力为&nbsp;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁人群（占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">），其中首次置业占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，改善需求占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，投资需求降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。收入结构呈现橄榄型分布：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">中等收入家庭（年收入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20-50</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元）占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">62%</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">高收入群体（年收入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25%</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">刚需购房者（年收入</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万内）占</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">13%</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">职业分布上，高新技术、金融和教育行业从业者合计占比超</span></font><font face="宋体"></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，天府新区和高新区购房者中科技人才占比达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，反映产业人才集聚效应。同时，外地购房者比例增至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，主要来自川内二级城市（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）和一线城市（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.行为偏好分析</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">户型选择务实化：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡三居室占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，二胎家庭偏好</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">四居室（占比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。但核心区豪宅需求上升，如嘉佰道二期</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">200-800</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡户型吸引高净值人群。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">决策因素多元化：</span>教育配套（优质学区）为首要关注点（提及率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">88%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">），医疗（三甲医院）和商业（社区综合体）紧随其后（提及率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">75%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">信息渠道线上化：</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">VR</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">看房、直播选房使用率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，但</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">85%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">&nbsp;用户仍需线下实地考察后决策。贝壳、安居客线上流量占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，但龙湖“小龙人”等私域平台用户黏性提升显著。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">值得注意的是，二手房买家更关注</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">即买即住和学区资源，而新房买家则更看重产品创新与社区品质。这种需求差异导致同一区域内新旧房源客群重叠度不足</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">五、区域市场对比：核心区领跑、近郊承压</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.分区域表现</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心五城区（锦江、青羊、金牛、武侯、成华）：</span>供应稀缺，均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.8-3.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，去化周期仅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6-8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。成华区表现最亮眼，一季度商品房成交</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">36</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡，同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">33%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，土拍溢价率最高达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">51.11%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。锦江区凭借金融城三期、白鹭湾等高端项目，均价突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.79</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，领跑全市。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">近郊区域（双流、龙泉驿、温江、郫都）：</span>成交量占全市</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.6-2.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，但库存压力显现。龙泉驿受益于东安湖发展，东城金茂晓棠月销</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">406</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套；双流依托怡心湖</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">开发保持热度；但温江光华新城因库存高企价格回调</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">远郊及新区（东部新区、天府新区）：</span>天府新区中央商务区高端项目去化加速，中海天府里精装均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，月销</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套；东部新区则依托产业导入，招商时代公园以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元起总价吸引刚需，月销</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">150</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.板块价值重构</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">高价值板块持续领跑：</span>金融城三期（产业集聚）、锦江生态带（教育资源）、新川创新科技园（数字经济）均价涨幅年超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，土地溢价率普遍超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">50%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">潜力板块崭露头角：</span>青羊新城（城市更新）、龙潭寺</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">（交通枢纽</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">产业导入）、简州新城（先进制造基地）成为新热点，其中龙潭寺</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">二期龙潭九玺取证即获市场高度关注。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">学区板块抗跌性强：</span>青羊区金沙、锦江区攀成钢等学区房价格坚挺，二手房溢价率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20-30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，即便在调整期价格波动也小于市场均值。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">六、市场价格走势：新房稳涨、二手承压</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月成都房价呈现 “新房结构性上涨、二手房普遍回调” 的典型分化特征：</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新房价格稳中有升：</span>一季度均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.99</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，同比涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.03%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月受核心区高端项目集中备案影响，锦江区均价达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3.79</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，天府新区为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡，拉动全市均价上行。上海、广州等一线城市</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月房价领涨（涨幅</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.47%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1.25%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">），成都虽涨幅温和，但趋势一致。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">二手房深度调整：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月百城二手住宅均价同比下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.24%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，环比跌幅扩大至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.71%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。成都虽未公布全域数据，但典型项目如华润城润府</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">82.59</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡房源成交价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">946</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元（单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">11.45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡），较</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2021</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年同户型</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">422</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元（单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡）降幅显著。价格回调主因挂牌量激增，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月以来</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">140</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">城挂牌量达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">521.7</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套，较年初增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，业主“以价换量”成为主流策略。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格梯度进一步拉大：</span>核心区（金融城、攀成钢）与近郊（温江、新都）价差比从</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">：</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">扩大至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">：</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.52</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，反映市场对稀缺资源的溢价认可度提升。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">七、竞争格局：头部房企聚焦高端市场</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">头部房企主导：</span>万科、保利、华润合计占市场份额</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">28%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，其中华润凭借锦江悦府等项目在高端市场领先。本土房企德商、万华在豪宅领域表现突出。</span></font></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品策略升级：</span>新规项目普遍采用高得房率（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">102-104%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）、横厅设计（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">米宽厅）、智能家居等卖点。绿城、建发等房企更将绿色建筑（装配式、近零能耗）作为核心竞争力。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">渠道变革深化：</span>虽然贝壳、安居客线上流量占比超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，但房企自建渠道崛起，如龙湖“小龙人”</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">APP</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">私域用户转化率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，高于行业均值。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">八、专家与机构观点：谨慎乐观中关注分化</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.研究机构判断</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中指研究院：</span>预计</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月政策环境保持宽松，专项债收储、城中村改造等政策落地将提振市场。核心城市有望持续修复，但分化行情仍将延续。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">克而瑞研究中心：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月房企推盘力度加大，主城区改善供应占比提升，成交环比有望持增，但去化率可能从</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">降至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">34%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">麟评居住大数据研究院：</span>成都市场分化将加剧，核心区优质项目供不应求，价格看涨；非核心区去化压力加大，需警惕局部风险。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.学者观点</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">西南财经大学房地产研究院：</span>成都人口净流入（年均</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万人）支撑长期需求，但需警惕商业地产过剩风险（空置率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">仲量联行：</span>产业升级推动“职住平衡”趋势，近郊产城融合板块（双流航空港、龙泉汽车城）潜力突出，</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">开发加速区域价值重构。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.开发商策略</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">建发国际董事会：</span>“优质地段始终受市场欢迎，房企稳健发展需依靠优质土储，‘优地’才能实现‘优价’。”</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">成都越秀地产营销：</span>“五一特价房和送家电措施带动成交环比涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80-150%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，显示促销仍是去化有效手段。”</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">九、客户需求与痛点：品质升级遭遇交付焦虑</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.核心需求升级</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">“好房子”标准明确化：</span>客户对高得房率（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">&gt;100%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）、智能安防、健康建材的关注度提升</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，新规项目去化率普遍超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">80%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">“交房即交证”成标配：</span>超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">&nbsp;购房者将即时办证列为关键决策因素，中海、华润等项目因交付效率高获市场溢价。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">社区服务需求上升：</span>养老托幼（提及率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">75%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）、社群活动（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）成为改善型项目标配，绿城、万科物业因此获</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15-20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">&nbsp;品牌溢价。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.主要痛点待解</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">交付质量不稳定：</span>部分项目减配引发投诉，客户投诉率同比增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，尤其精装房交付标准不符问题突出。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">换房成本高企：</span>二套房首付（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">40%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）及利率（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">LPR+60BP</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">）仍具压力，制约改善释放。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">二手房价格踩踏：</span>非核心区大户型因置换需求集中挂牌，部分业主降价超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">15%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，引发价格踩踏焦虑。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十、风险与建议：控风险、抓机遇</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.潜在风险提示</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域库存分化：</span>远郊都江堰、崇州去化周期超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月，简阳部分地块楼面价与房价倒挂。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">商业地产过剩：</span>写字楼空置率攀升至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">26.8%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，商圈空置率达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，招商压力加剧。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">交付信任危机：</span>部分民企项目延期交付致市场信心波动，购房者转向央国企及现房。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.策略建议</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">优化供地结构：</span>减少远郊土地供应（如新津、青白江），转向产业用地供应，推动职住平衡。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品创新提速：</span>强化绿色科技（近零能耗）、适老化设计（全龄友好社区）、智慧服务（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">AI</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">物业）等差异化卖点。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">促销去库存：</span>非核心区项目可联合政府补贴（如房票安置、契税减免），加快存量去化。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十一、未来展望：短期修复与长期重构</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.短期趋势（</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">Q2-Q4</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">）</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策延续宽松</span>：预计</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">LPR</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">可能再降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10-15BP</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，地方补贴（如房票、以旧换新）持续加码。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年中成交小高峰：</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月房企冲刺半年度业绩，预计推盘量增</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，核心区新盘（如麓湖天琴澄音、源启金沙）去化率有望超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">70%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格温和回升：</span>核心区新房均价或再涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3-5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，二手房跌幅收窄至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">以内，市场整体进入弱复苏通道。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.中长期趋势（</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025-2026</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年）</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">城市格局重构：</span>成渝双城经济圈驱动东部新区、天府新区发展，到</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2026</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年两大新区住宅需求占比或提至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品代际革命：</span>“好房子”标准全面落地，绿色低碳（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">装配式）、智慧互联（</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">AIoT</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">社区）成为新标配。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">租赁市场崛起：</span>保障性租赁住房供应占比将提至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">，年供应超</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万套，分流部分刚需压力。</span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">十二、总结</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年成都房地产市场正在经历深刻的结构性变革。随着“好房子”时代全面开启，房企需从三方面构建核心竞争力：精准投资（聚焦核心地块）、产品创新（落实绿色智能标准）、信用重塑（保障高品质交付）。对于购房者而言，核心区改善型项目和中高端二手房仍是资产配置的优先选项，而外围区域购房则需更关注产业导入和配套落地进度。政府层面，需通过土地精准供应和存量优化政策，推动市场实现“总量控制、结构优化”的软着陆目标。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">（本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研，分析结论仅供参考）</span></font></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section 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