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【客研月报136】2025年1-5月:厦门房地产市场与客户研究月报

发布于 2025-06-12

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []" style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">1.市场整体表现</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月,厦门房地产市场呈现出显著的区域分化与温和复苏态势。商品住宅(不含保障性住房)成交面积达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">66.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">29.6%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;成交套数</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6021</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20.0%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。这一增长主要得益于政策刺激和积压需求的释放,但不同区域表现差异巨大。分月度看,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月市场回暖势头尤为明显,单月成交面积</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">14.31</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万㎡,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">44.55%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">;成交套数</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1273</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">套,同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">29.24%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">从供需结构看,市场呈现出以下特征:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">供应端:</span>开发商推盘节奏保持谨慎,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月新批上市面积同比小幅下降,销供比维持在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.8-1.2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">的均衡区间。岛内思明区因土地稀缺,新增供应持续紧张;而岛外围区域如集美、翔安等地供应相对充足。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">库存去化:</span>全市商品住宅库存去化周期约为</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">18</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,但区域分化明显。岛外新兴板块如翔安南部新城、同安环东海域等区域去化压力较大,库存去化周期超过</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月;而岛内核心区及优质学区板块库存去化周期普遍短于</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品结构:</span>成交主力面积段集中在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90-144</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡的刚需和改善产品,占总成交量的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">65%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">以上;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">144</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上大户型占比约</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,主要集中于岛内高端项目。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">2.政策与热点事件</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">落户政策重大调整</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">30</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">日,厦门市公安局发布《关于完善优化落户条件的通知(征求意见稿)》,宣布全面放宽岛外落户条件,逐步放宽岛内落户限制。这一政策调整是厦门近年来最大幅度的户籍制度改革:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛外落户:</span>合法稳定就业且居住登记满半年,并在岛外四区(集美、海沧、同安、翔安)连续缴纳社保或合法稳定居住满半年即可落户。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛内落户:</span>条件由原先的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年大幅降低至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年,要求在我市合法稳定就业且居住登记满两年,并在思明区或湖里区连续缴纳社会保险满两年、合法稳定居住满两年。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">配套措施:</span>全面放开社区公共户设立条件和落户范围,实行以经常居住地登记户口制度,配偶和未成年子女可一并随迁。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">此项政策预计将释放大量购房资格,尤其有利于岛外刚需市场。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年末厦门常住人口已达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">535</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万人,人口增量</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万人(增长率</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.43%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)位居全省之首,新政实施后人口吸引力有望进一步增强。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">经济刺激与消费政策</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年初,厦门市政府出台《关于实现</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年一季度经济社会发展良好开局的若干措施》,围绕七个方面推出</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">23</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">条措施:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">促消费:</span>安排</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1000</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元对个人消费者购买乘用车新车予以分档补贴,与汽车以旧换新补贴政策叠加;举办促消费活动</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">场以上。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">房地产支持:</span>适时发放购房消费券,继续推动房产展销会,加快商品房销售;落实房地产融资协调</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“白名单”扩围增质要求;进一步优化完善房票制度。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">企业扶持:</span>完善支持小微企业融资协调工作机制,力争实现对正常经营小微企业走访全覆盖;充分发挥政府性融资担保作用,力争一季度末政府性融资担保机构融资担保在保余额达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">100</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">亿元以上。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">3.土地市场分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">3.</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp;</span></span><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">土地成交情况</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2024-2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年厦门土拍市场呈现量缩价稳、理性回归的特征:</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">溢价水平:</span>除将军祠地块溢价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">41%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">外,其余地块均以底价成交,反映出房企在拿地时更加谨慎和理性。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月,厦门土地市场延续了理性态势,岛内地块仍受房企青睐,但竞价激烈程度较前几年明显降温,房企更加注重地块的盈利能力和去化风险。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">4. 客户画像分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">4.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">客户基础特征</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年厦门房地产市场客户结构呈现以下特征:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">户籍构成:</span>本地需求稳步释放,新落户人口成为重要增量。思明区作为厦门本地户籍比例最高的区域,落户比例高达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">91.4%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,远高于湖里区的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">43.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。落户新政实施后,预计将吸引更多年轻人才落户岛外。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年龄结构:</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">25-35</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁年轻客群占比提升,主要集中于岛外刚需项目;</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">35-45</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">岁改善型客群则更关注岛内核心区和优质学区房。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">支付能力:</span>岛外主力总价段集中在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">200-400</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元,岛内主力总价段在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">600</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元以上。二手房买家对价格敏感度更高,议价空间普遍在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">以内。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">4.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行为偏好</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品选择:</span>岛外客户偏好</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">90-120</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡三房,岛内客户倾向</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">144</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上大平层或别墅。景观资源成为高端项目重要溢价点。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">决策因素:</span>学区仍是核心关注点,思明区因集中了厦门一双、实小等顶级学区,房价抗跌性最强</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。同时,社区品质、物业管理等非价格因素影响力上升。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">数字化趋势:</span>线上看房、</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">VR</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">实景等技术应用普及,但大宗交易仍需线下体验。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">5.区域市场对比</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">5.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">分区域表现</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">厦门房地产市场呈现明显的岛内岛外二元格局,各区域表现差异显著:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">思明区:</span>作为厦门传统核心区,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月商品住宅成交均价同比上涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20.0%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,是全市唯一实现两位数增长的区域。但受供应限制,成交面积同比下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">51.1%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。二手房市场表现强劲,单价前十名中占据</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">8</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">席,最高成交单价达</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7.72</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">湖里区:</span>成交面积同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">60.1%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,增速位居岛内首位。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">集美区:</span>表现最为亮眼,成交面积同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">478.8%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,成为岛外成交主力。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">IOI</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">棕榈半岛的景观大平层以</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4.4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡成为本期岛外最高单价。集美区人口首次突破</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">110</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万大关,人口基数支撑了住房需求。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">海沧区:</span>成交面积同比增长</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">52.9%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,成交均价同比微涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.8%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。海沧招商花园城等新兴商圈带动了区域热度。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">同安区与翔安区:</span>表现相对疲软,成交面积同比分别下降</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">20.5%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">和</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24.7%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,成交均价同比分别下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">27.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">和</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">22.4%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。去库存压力较大,价格竞争激烈。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">5.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">板块价值分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛内核心板块(思明</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">-</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">湖里):</span>拥有顶级学区、商务配套和稀缺资源,房价抗跌性强。思明区作为厦门“区域一哥”,集中了双子塔、白鹭洲、筼筜湖、中山街等地标,价值认可度高。湖里区五缘湾板块凭借优质海景资源和城市界面,成为高端改善热点。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">岛外核心板块(集美新城、海沧湾):</span>集美新城受益于文教区规划和</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">IOI</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">等商业综合体,成为岛外价值高地。海沧湾依托港口经济和生活配套成熟,价格相对坚挺。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新兴发展板块(翔安南部新城、同安环东海域):</span>供应量大,价格竞争激烈,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以下成交的楼盘占比高,是对年轻刚需群体最友好的板块。但配套成熟度不足,去化周期长。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">特殊价值板块:</span>教育资源集中板块(如思明学区房)、稀缺景观板块(如环岛路海景房)和产业聚集板块(如软件园三期周边)具有独特的价值支撑点。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">6. 市场价格走势分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月厦门房价整体呈现新房企稳、二手房深度调整的分化格局:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">新房市场:</span>全市新建住宅均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">29220</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月累计微涨</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.20%5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月单月价格同比下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">0.38%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,但环比已出现企稳迹象。分区看,思明区领涨(同比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">+20.0%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),而集美、同安、翔安跌幅显著(同比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-22.4%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">至</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-42.2%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">二手房市场:</span>调整幅度更大,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月价格累计下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5.20%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月二手住宅均价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">45058</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">元</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡,同比下跌</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">12.36%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,跌幅较去年同期扩大</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">6.54</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个百分点。岛内外价差明显,思明区二手房单价普遍在</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上,而岛外仅有个别景观、学区出类拔萃的地段能维持</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">3</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡以上。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格分化机制:</span>厦门楼市存在</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“心照不宣的鄙视链”,岛内价值认可度高于岛外。但市场调整期也出现了新变化——自住属性强的房源抗跌性优于投资属性强的房源,所谓“自己买的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">&gt;</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">非自己买的”。价格调整幅度方面,岛内一二手房价位调整幅度明显,全市</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">4</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡或</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">400</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万以上的比例大幅减少。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">7. 竞争格局分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">7.</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">项目销售表现</span></span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2025</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1-5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">月厦门住宅项目销售金额</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOP10</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">中,建发、国贸、象屿旗下项目占据主导地位:</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">高端项目:</span>岛内思明、湖里项目凭借稀缺地段和产品力占据榜单前列,如建发书香五缘等项目。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">热销刚需盘:</span>多位于集美、海沧等岛外核心区,凭借交通便利、配套完善和价格优势(单价</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">2.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-3.5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">/</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">㎡)赢得市场。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">营销策略:</span>开发商普遍采取</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“低开高走”策略,新盘入市定价理性,优惠措施多样。春节期间,部分项目结合“以旧换新”政策,在家电、家居配套上推出优惠。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span><font face="宋体"><span leaf="" style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">8.客户需求与痛点</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">8.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">核心需求特征</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">自住主导:</span>市场已由投资主导向自住主导转变,</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“居者有其屋”成为主流购房理念</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">7</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。首次置业者占比提升,主要关注总价可控、功能实用的中小户型。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">改善升级:</span>二胎家庭和品质追求者推动改善需求,偏好岛内核心区或岛外优质板块的大户型产品,注重社区环境、物业服务和生活配套</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">学区诉求:</span>优质教育资源仍是购房决策的关键因素,</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“思明无弱校”的观念深入人心,学区房价格抗跌性强。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">8.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">市场痛点分析</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">支付能力不足:</span>尽管房价有所回调,但岛内均价仍是全市平均工资水平的</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">10</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">倍以上,普通工薪阶层购房压力巨大。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">交房品质担忧:</span>部分项目为控制成本降低配置,引发业主维权。购房者对开发商品牌信誉和产品质量的关注度显著提高。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">资产贬值焦虑:</span>二手房价格持续下跌(同比</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-12.36%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">),部分早期购房者面临负资产风险。有分析指出,厦门二手房价格较高峰期最高跌去</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">46%</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">,不少片区价格重回</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">5</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">年前。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域配套落差:</span>岛外新兴板块教育、医疗、商业配套滞后,生活便利度不足,影响居住体验和房产价值提升。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">9. 风险与建议</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">9.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">市场风险提示</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">价格下行风险:</span>二手房价格持续深度调整可能传导至新房市场,形成负反馈循环。部分岛外区域如翔安、同安库存高企,去化周期超过</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">24</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">个月,存在价格进一步下行压力。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">企业流动性风险:</span>中小房企融资渠道受限,销售回款压力大,可能引发资金链断裂风险。部分项目存在停工、延期交付隐患。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">经济转型阵痛:</span>厦门电子信息制造业下滑,外资撤离,就业岗位减少,可能削弱居民购房能力。房地产过度依赖导致产业空心化问题尚未根本解决。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">政策效应递减:</span>落户放宽虽释放需求,但实际转化率受收入预期和房价走势影响,政策刺激效果可能递减。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">9.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">发展建议</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">对开发商:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产品错位竞争:</span>岛内主打高端改善型产品,注重品质溢价;岛外聚焦紧凑实用户型,控制总价(</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">200</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">-350</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">万元)。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">交房品质保障:</span>强化施工管控,推广现房或准现房销售模式,消除购房者顾虑。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">精准营销策略:</span>针对不同客群制定差异化策略,如首置客群关注低首付、月供能力,改善客群强调品质提升和生活场景。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">对购房者:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">刚需客户:</span>可关注岛外价格洼地,如集美、海沧等配套相对成熟的板块,选择地铁沿线或优质学区辐射区</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">1</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">改善客户:</span>优先考虑岛内核心区或岛外稀缺景观资源项目,注重长期价值而非短期波动。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">投资客户:</span>需警惕库存高压区域,避免盲目抄底。凯恩斯名言警示:</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“市场可以比你预期的疯狂的时间更长”。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">对政府部门:</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">完善公共配套:</span>加快岛外学校、医院、交通等基础设施建设,缩短与岛内的差距。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">优化土地供应:</span>根据区域库存情况动态调整供地节奏,避免过度投放加剧市场失衡。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">发展产业经济:</span>推动产业结构优化升级,创造更多高质量就业岗位,夯实购房能力基础。<span textstyle="" style="font-size: 24px;color: #7c8b09;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">10.未来展望</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">10.1&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">短期趋势(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2025</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年下半年)</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">量升价稳:</span>在落户新政和购房消费券等政策刺激下,市场成交量有望延续回升态势,尤其岛外刚需市场受益明显。但价格预计整体企稳,不同区域继续分化。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">板块轮动:</span>岛内核心区(思明学区房、湖里五缘湾)价格率先企稳回升;岛外核心区(集美新城、海沧湾)成交活跃但价格平稳;新兴板块(翔安、同安)仍以价换量。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">企业格局:</span>国央企和优质民企市场份额进一步提升,问题房企加速出清。建发、国贸等本土龙头持续引领市场。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">10.2&nbsp;</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">中长期趋势(</span></span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2026-2028</span></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年)</span></span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">市场结构重塑:</span>房地产回归居住属性,投资属性淡化。产品力取代金融属性成为核心竞争力,高品质、绿色低碳、智慧社区成为主流趋势。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">区域价值重构:</span>随着跨岛发展战略推进,岛内外差距逐步缩小。轨道交通网络完善将重塑区域价值格局,</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf="">TOD</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">模式(以公共交通为导向的开发)项目价值凸显。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">产业与人口支撑:</span>厦门产业转型升级成效将成为房地产市场长期发展的决定性因素。如能成功培育电子信息制造外的第二增长曲线(如生物医药、新材料、高端装备制造),吸引高素质人才集聚,将为房地产市场提供坚实支撑。</span></font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">开放红利释放:</span>作为</span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">“一带一路”支点城市,厦门高水平对外开放政策红利将持续释放</span></font><font face="Calibri"><span leaf=""><br /></span></font><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">。“丝路海运”国际航运综合服务平台等创新举措将提升贸易便利度,吸引跨国企业区域总部落地,带动高端住宅需求。</span></font></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><font face="宋体"><span leaf="">(本报告数据均来自公开统计及行业调研,分析结论仅供参考)</span></font></span></p><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 10.5pt;"><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-top: 16px;"><span 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