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【楼市复盘 004】杭州楼市1-2月:政策驱动下的结构性分化与市场韧性

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">全面松绑与精准调控并行</span></strong><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">限购全面取消</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:</span>2024年5月起杭州全域取消限购,2024年10月后新出让地块取消社保排序和限售,进一步激活市场流动性。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">信贷政策宽松</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:首套</span>/二套房贷利率降至3.1%(LPR-50BP),首付比例统一为15%,公积金贷款额度最高130万元,降低购房门槛。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">区域差异化补贴</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:西湖、余杭、富阳等区域推出契税补贴(最高</span>60%)、人才购房补贴(最高20万元),定向刺激需求。</span></p><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><p><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">流动性宽松支撑市场韧性</span></span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">房贷利率处于历史低位</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:当前首套</span>/二套房贷利率3.1%,较2024年同期下降1.5个百分点,月供压力显著减轻。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">公积金政策优化</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:绿色建筑、以旧换新等场景下公积金贷款额度可上浮</span>20%,支持改善型需求。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">保障房分流刚需</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:配售型保障房入市(售价为商品房</span>50%),缓解核心区压力,但可能抑制同板块二手房价格。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">量价分化与结构性修复</span></span></strong></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">新房市场</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">成交缩量</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:</span>1月成交3135套,环比下降56%,同比降6.47%,主因春节假期及供应减少。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">价格分化</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:核心区(钱江新城、未来科技城)新房均价稳定在</span>4万+/㎡,外围区域(临安、富阳)均价1.3万-1.9万/㎡,同比下跌4.5%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">土拍升温</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:</span>1月成交8宗涉宅地,平均溢价率45.3%,滨江集团以61.9%溢价竞得北干西单元地块,刷新板块楼面价纪录。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">二手房市场</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">量升价稳</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:</span>1月成交6064套(创近7年新高),环比增60%,但同比仍降8.5%;核心次新房价格企稳,外围区域以价换量。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">挂牌量高企</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:全市挂牌量达</span>15.97万套,去化周期28.1个月,临安、富阳压力最大。</span></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">核心区</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">“一房难求”与外围“冰火两重天”</span></span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">主城区领涨</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">滨江区去化周期仅</span>0.5个月,奥体、钱江世纪城新房限价突破5万+/㎡,二手房挂牌价环比涨5%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">申花、市北等板块次新房成交活跃,如馥香园</span>11天成交10套,单价达7万/㎡。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">远郊承压</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">临安、富阳库存去化周期超</span>17个月,部分项目通过“300万以下包税”策略吸引刚需。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">保障房入市冲击边缘板块,如临平汽车南站地块以</span>6478元/㎡成交,未来售价或低于预期。</span></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">民企主导与国央企回归</span></span></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">民企积极补仓</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:滨江集团</span>1月权益拿地金额82.5亿元,占全市55%,竞得北干西单元、西兴地块等核心地块。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">国央企深耕</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:华润以</span>45.9%溢价竞得世纪城南单元地块,招商、中海回归参与土拍,显示长期信心。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">新锐房企入场</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:呼伦贝尔汇嘉、量执房产等首次入杭,聚焦低密地块差异化竞争。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">客户态度与机构观点</span></span></strong></p><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">购房者情绪</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">核心区改善需求释放,如钱二、云城等板块中签率低至</span>20%;外围区域观望情绪浓厚。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">政策宽松预期强化,超</span>60%购房者认为小阳春将提前至2月。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">机构研判</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: var(--yb-font-body-large);letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:var(--yb-font-body-large);">:</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">合富辉煌</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:预计</span>2025年新房价格普涨30%,核心区高端项目突破6万/㎡。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">纬房研究院</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:同比跌幅收窄至</span>-10.83%,环比趋稳释放止跌信号,钱江新城抗跌性显著。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">DeepSeek</span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:市场分化加剧,刚需需警惕外围风险,改善聚焦核心区稀缺房源。</span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">展望与策略建议</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">短期展望(2-3月)</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">:</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">新房供应</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:预计</span>3月迎来推盘高峰,绿城玉澜月华、建发云城之上等红盘或带动成交回升。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">价格趋势</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:核心区房价或突破限价天花板,外围区域以稳为主。</span></span></p><p style="margin: 12pt 0pt;text-indent: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">长期展望(2025-2027):</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">核心区持续领涨</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:主城区宅地供应收紧,叠加改善型低密地块占比提升,供需矛盾推动新房价格年均涨幅超</span>15%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">产品品质升级</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:风雨连廊、</span>6米架空层、3.15米层高等成为标配,高端项目精装标准重回万元/㎡。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">政策与保障房重塑格局</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:配售型保障房冲击刚需市场,但核心区优质房源受影响较小。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">策略建议</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">:</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">购房者</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">o</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">核心区:优先选择奥体、申花等改善型项目,关注现房或准现房。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 42pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: &quot;Courier New&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">o</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">外围区:谨慎选择远郊高库存板块,关注保障房政策动态。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 10pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">投资者</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">:聚焦核心区低密地块项目,规避非核心区高溢价风险。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 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