【楼市复盘 006】南京楼市1-2月：核心资产回暖、库存去化加速与土拍升温共筑结构性复苏

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">政策工具箱持续发力，托底市场信心</span></strong><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">&nbsp;限售松绑：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">南京有条件取消限售政策，二手房挂牌量增加但未引发抛售潮，主城区次新房加速入市。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">金融支持：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">LPR维持3.6%不变，但全年预计降息40-50BP，首套房贷利率最低探至2.86%（佛山案例），南京首套利率3.0%仍有下调空间。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">供需优化：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">推进“好房子”建设，浦口试点产业人才购房补贴（800元/㎡），配售型保障房进入研究阶段，预计缓解刚需压力。</span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">量价分化，结构性回暖</span></strong><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">新房市场</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 量价齐升：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">1月新房价格环比+0.7%（全国第一），同比跌幅收窄至4.8%；认购量环比+16%，南部新城、燕子矶等板块收回优惠。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 库存低位：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">主城库存去化周期仅5.1个月（城南）-10个月（全市），河西库存不足2000套。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">二手房市场</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 止跌回稳：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">1月成交7847套（环比-24.5%但同比持平），均价22100元/㎡环比+0.7%，议价空间缩至-1.86%。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 库存去化：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">库存降至14万套（峰值18万套），学区房（如银城汇文片区）成交价企稳，河西、鼓楼“零议价”房源增多。</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">趋势指标现拐点</span></strong><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">·&nbsp;价格趋势：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">新房价格连续3月环比上涨，二手房结束6个月下跌，技术面呈现“双底”形态。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">·&nbsp;量能指标：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">节后二手房日成交恢复至200-300套，新增挂牌价环比-2.6%，市场进入“以价换量”尾声。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">·&nbsp;板块轮动：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">主城改善板块（河西、大校场）量价领涨，远郊刚需板块（江宁、六合）仍以价换量。</span></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></section><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">分化加剧，核心资产抗跌</span></strong><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">头部板块</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">河西：</span></span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">招商金陵序等豪宅单价破</span>6万，土拍楼面价逼近3万/㎡，金融城三期规划提振预期。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">南部新城：</span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">中信泰富·九庐单月认购超1.5亿，配套落地加速（南外开学、地铁10号线通车）。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">新兴板块</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">燕子矶：</span></span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">星叶燕尚玥府单价</span>2.8万/㎡，万象汇开业+南师附中落地，刚改客群占比提升。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">江北核心区：</span></span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">库存压力缓解，扬子江金茂悦二期成交价</span>3.4万/㎡，同比跌幅收窄至5%。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">远郊承压</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">溧水</span>/六合：</span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">新房均价1.1-1.2万/㎡，去化周期超20个月，依赖“以旧换新”政策去库存。</span></span></span></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">头部房企控盘，土拍热度回升</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 拿地策略：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">中海、华润、绿城高溢价竞得深圳、杭州等地块（溢价率21-70%），南京本土土拍（如鼓楼G88）溢价16%。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 产品升级：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">招商、金基等加速推出第四代住宅（阳台花园、科技系统），替代传统刚需盘，拉高价格中枢。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 去化分化：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">保利、万科等房企收回主城优惠，远郊项目仍以“特价房”促销（如江宁武夷七里湖山单价1.2万/㎡）。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;">客户态度与机构观点</span></span></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 买方心态：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">改善客群加速入场（河西豪宅周带看量+30%），刚需观望情绪仍存（100-150万成交占比最高）。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">· 机构研判：</span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">o 短期：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">易居预测“小阳春”行情可期，3月成交量环比+20%。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">o 长期：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">中指院认为核心区房价年涨幅5-8%，远郊仍承压。</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">展望</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong></h4><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;"></span></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 16px 0px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">短期（</span>3-6月）：</span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">政策宽松+学区房旺季驱动成交量回升，主城房价温和上涨（+3-5%），远郊以价换量延续。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 16px 0px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: Symbol;">·&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">长期（</span>1-3年）：</span></span></span></strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">人口回流（2024年新增常住人口12万）+产业升级（江北新区集成电路集群）支撑需求，但需警惕商业地产过剩风险。</span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></h4><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">08&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">策略建议</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong></h4><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 16px 0px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">刚需客户：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">优先江宁东山、浦口城南中心（单价2.8-3.2万/㎡），关注公积金新政及利率下调窗口。</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 16px 0px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">改善客户：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">锁定河西、大校场稀缺改善盘（如金基瞻月府），利用“卖旧换新”税费减免。</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 16px 0px;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">投资者：</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">规避远郊板块，关注主城地铁TOD项目（如雨花数字城）及核心区法拍房机会。</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span></h4><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: 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