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【楼市复盘 014】西安楼市1-2月：客户观望情绪加剧，机构预判分化中企稳

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">市场走势</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"></span></p><p><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">价格表现（</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">K线形态：连续阴跌）</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房：</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">1月价格环比下跌0.4%，同比降1%，连续5个月下跌（文献3、5、12）；144㎡以上大户型跌幅最大（-0.9%），刚需户型（90-144㎡）跌幅收窄（-0.2%）。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">二手房：环比降</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">0.3%，同比降7%，小户型（90㎡以下）领跌（-0.7%），核心学区房价格韧性较强。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">成交热度（缩量探底）</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1月新房成交67.61万㎡（环比↓14%，同比↓7%），春节假期致供需两淡；二手房网签6048套，环比断崖式下跌36.8%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2月上半月市场逐步恢复，周度来访量环比↑49%，但转化率仅5%，购房决策周期延长。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><strong>政策面（多空博弈）</strong></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">利多：限购取消、首付比例下调（首套</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">20%）、公积金贷款优化；</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">利空：经济疲软压制购买力，刚需客群转向二手房市场。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02&nbsp;</span></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度与观点分析</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需客群（占比</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">50%）</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">态度：价格敏感，总价预算</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">≤150万，偏好地铁盘及低总价二手房；</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">观点：</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“新房价格不透明，不如二手现房性价比高” 。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">改善客群（占比25%）</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">态度：关注核心区（高新、曲江）四代住宅及优质学区房，但议价意愿增强；</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">观点：</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“等待政策进一步宽松，或3月小阳春优惠释放”。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">投资客群（占比10%）</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">态度：谨慎观望，聚焦高新区及港务区潜力地块；</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">观点：</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“核心区抗跌，边缘区风险高” 。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">看多派</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">前瞻顾问：政策宽松叠加低基数，</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">3月“小阳春”可期，预计同比成交正增长。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">中指研究院：核心区（高新、曲江）价格企稳，改善需求释放将带动结构性回暖。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">谨慎派</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">克而瑞：市场分化加剧，非核心区库存压力大，价格或继续探底。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">柏文喜（经济学家）：</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">6-7月或为市场止跌关键节点，短期仍以“以价换量”为主。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">后市展望</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">—</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">短期</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">：</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策利好对冲经济压力，3月或现“弱反弹”，但价格难改下行趋势。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><br /></span><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">中期：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">核心区（高新、曲江）企稳回升，边缘区（秦汉新城等）继续承压。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><br /></span><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">操作建议：</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">刚需：关注港务区、城南低总价新房及二手地铁盘；</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">改善：择机吸纳曲江、高新优质改善盘，利用政策窗口期锁定利率；</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">投资者：规避郊区项目，聚焦主城核心地块土拍动向。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 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