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【楼市复盘 015】徐州楼市1-2月:政策驱动下的震荡筑底与结构性回暖

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">市场走势:</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">量价分化,政策催化结构性行情</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1月市场表现(缩量调整)</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交量:</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">1月全市新建商品住宅成交2834套,同比微涨0.6%,环比下降3.38%;市区成交1039套,环比下降22.4%,呈现“春节前冷启动”特征。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格:新房均价</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">12899元/㎡(环比+3.3%),但区域分化显著。核心区(如云龙湖、新城区)项目价格坚挺(如招商序单价2.9万/㎡),远郊板块以价换量(如铜山万科檐语间8500元/㎡起)。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">资金流向:房企销售榜单中,美的置业、万科、保利位列前三,改善型项目(如招商序、和著湖山)贡献主要成交额,刚需盘依赖促销。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2月上半月(触底反弹)</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">节后回暖:</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">2月10日-16日新房成交4.29万㎡(环比+65%),二手房成交5.81万㎡(环比+37%),政策利好(购房补贴、LPR稳定)推动需求释放。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格波动:新房均价</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">11675元/㎡(环比+8.05%),但受近郊低价盘集中备案影响,整体仍承压。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02&nbsp;</span></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度与观点</span></strong></p><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">刚需观望,改善进场</span></strong><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">刚需群体(持币观望</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">)</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格敏感:倾向二手房或远郊新房,对</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“返佣”“工抵房”等促销手段关注度高。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策依赖:期待房贷利率进一步下调及契税减免,部分因</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“卖旧换新”补贴转向新房市场。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">改善型客户(积极置换)</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">品质优先:核心区稀缺资源项目(如招商序</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">199㎡大平层、保利建发天瑞湖景洋房)成交火热,客户愿为高得房率、智慧社区溢价买单。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">全款占比提升:部分高净值客户选择全款购房(如招商序全款客户占比</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">10%),规避利率波动风险。</span></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点</span></strong></p><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">政策托底,聚焦品质升级</span></strong><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">政策端(宽松延续)</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">地方政策:徐州延续</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“卖旧换新”补贴(最高1.2%)、放宽公积金贷款条件,叠加LPR稳定(5年期3.6%),降低购房门槛。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">行业预期:机构认为市场已进入</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“政策底”,2025年将以“止跌回稳”为主线,高端改善盘持续领跑。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">房企策略(分化加剧)</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">头部房企:万科、保利等加速布局改善型产品(如叠墅、大平层),通过实景示范区、现房销售提升溢价。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">中小房企:远郊项目以</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“低总价+高佣金”去库存,部分面临退出压力。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">后市展望</span></strong></p><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">结构性机会与风险并存</span></strong><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">—</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">机会:核心区稀缺地块(如云龙湖、新城区)项目价值凸显,政策驱动下改善需求持续释放。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:宋体;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">风险:远郊板块库存压力未解,刚需购买力修复仍需时间。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp; &nbsp; <span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 13.3333px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;">·</span>策略建议:短期关注政策敏感型板块(如东湖新城、淮海新城),中&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 长期配置核心区高品质改善项目。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe 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