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【楼市复盘 017】济南楼市1-2月:政策宽松难掩市场分化,改善主导与刚需承压并存

发布于 2025-02-20

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>地方调控持续加码,精准刺激需求</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">公积金政策优化:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1月4日,济南将二套房首付比例从30%降至20%,贷款额度计算倍数从15倍提至25倍,并放宽灵活就业人员贷款条件。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">购房补贴与现房支持:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">山东1月底推出《住房消费行动计划》,济南同步发放5000万购房券,并对现房项目每平补贴800元,首套利率贴息0.5%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策时效性调整:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房贷利率重定价周期缩短至3个月至1年,增强利率灵活性,但当前首套/二套利率仍维持在3.1%的低位。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>利率低位企稳,房企融资分化<o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房贷利率“按兵不动”:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套商贷利率连续5个月维持3.1%(LPR-50BP),二套利率同步,政策宽松空间有限。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房企融资环境:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策鼓励定向降准,但受房企债务压力影响,实际融资改善有限,国企项目仍占主导。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">购房成本对比:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区现房项目因补贴可省20万,但远郊楼盘需“7折工抵房”仍难去化。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>成交量分化显著,价格趋稳但区域差异明显</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">成交量:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1月新建住宅网签2862套(环比+12.5%),但受春节假期影响,2月市场活跃度回落;二手房成交3875套(环比-13.4%),价格环比下跌0.37%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">价格趋势:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区抗跌:历下、高新等区域新房均价超2.3万/㎡,现房项目售价达4.2万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊承压:唐冶、孙村等区域新房均价不足1.2万/㎡,部分楼盘月成交仅个位数。</span></p></li></ul><p><br /></p></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">库存压力:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">五区去化周期约18个月,远郊板块如章锦、彩石去化停滞。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"></span></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></p><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>核心区改善主导,远郊以价换量</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心板块:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">历下、高新等区域140㎡以上户型成交占比达45%,改善型产品如银丰玖玺城、海信长岭山地块热销。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">现房项目平均去化周期仅2.8个月,租金倒挂现象突出(如核心区现房租售比跌破1:600)。</span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ul type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-top: 0cm;width: 556.469px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">唐冶、港沟等区域供应集中,但去化周期超24个月,部分楼盘推出“7折工抵房”仍难激活市场。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">张马屯片区成为刚需供应焦点,但价格竞争激烈,部分楼盘单价跌破1.2万/㎡。</span></p></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>国企主导市场,改善型产品成主流<o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">国企与品牌房企主导:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">济高绿城春月锦庐、城投绿城理想之城等国企项目包揽成交前列,依托资金实力和政策倾斜抢占份额。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">产品结构升级:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">140㎡以上户型占比超50%,科技城、长岭山等片区集中供应高端改善项目,如海信长岭山地块主推130-230㎡户型。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">投资客退潮:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">二手房市场投机行为增多,部分业主“边挂边撤”,议价空间达10%-15%。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>客户态度</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">改善需求积极入市,刚需仍显谨慎</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区现房及品质次新二手房成交占比提升,客户关注圈层溢价与教育资源,部分家庭接受现房溢价10%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚需客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊盘与老破小成交周期拉长,部分购房者转向地铁沿线(如新东站片区)或价格洼地(如药山片区)。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策敏感度:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">客户对购房券、利率补贴等政策反应积极,但更关注政策持续性,观望情绪仍存。</span></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></p></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>展望</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">短期温和回暖,长期分化加剧</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期(1-2季度):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策刺激下成交量或小幅回升,但价格以“以价换量”为主,核心区抗跌性凸显,远郊需依赖产业导入。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中长期(2025全年):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型产品持续主导市场,核心区土地稀缺性支撑房价,但涨幅受限。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块需解决配套落地滞后问题,否则库存压力或拖累整体市场。</span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 16px;">风险提示:</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 16px;">房企债务问题可能引发局部交付风险,政策放松节奏与美联储加息周期或加剧市场波动。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 0pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><br /></p><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: 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