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【楼市复盘 018】合肥楼市1-2月:政策宽松与市场分化并存

发布于 2025-02-20

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>多维度刺激需求,地方调控力度加码</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">购房补贴与公积金优化:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">合肥推出普惠性购房补贴(最高2%)、多子女家庭公积金贷款额度提升至120万,并动态调整首套房利率下限至3.5%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">信贷政策放宽:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套房商贷利率维持3.0%(LPR-60BP),二套首付比例降至25%,部分银行放宽收入流水审核标准。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">“卖旧买新”闭环设计:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政府搭建“换购超市”,推动旧房置换税费优惠,加速改善型需求释放。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>利率低位企稳,房企融资分化<o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房贷利率处于历史低位:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套商贷利率3.0%,公积金利率2.85%,部分外资银行首套利率低至2.86%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房企融资环境改善有限:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策鼓励定向降准,但受债务压力影响,国企项目仍占主导,民企依赖工抵房等“以价换量”策略。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">购房成本对比:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区现房项目补贴后总价可省20万,但远郊楼盘仍需“7折工抵房”促销。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>新房结构性上涨,二手房持续探底</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>成交量分化:</strong>1月新房成交1790套(同比+61.55%),但受春节假期影响,2月市场活跃度回落;二手房成交1458套(环比+13.4%),价格同比下跌11.4%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>价格趋势:</strong><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区抗跌:政务区、滨湖新区新房均价超3万/㎡,部分高端项目如绿城锦海棠均价达2.9万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">外围承压:新站、瑶海等区域新房均价不足1.5万/㎡,二手房单价跌至1.3万/㎡,部分房源降价超百万。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0px;"><br /></p></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">库存压力:</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;">五区去化周期约11个月,核心区供不应求,而远郊板块(如肥东)库存去化停滞。</span></span></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>核心区与远郊“冰火两重天”</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心板块:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">政务区因土地稀缺,新房总价普遍500万以上,滨湖新区依托金融规划,新房均价3.3万/㎡,供需紧平衡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型产品主导市场,如置地雲台映月、中海悦府二期等热销项目占比超60%。</span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 16px;">远郊板块:</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 16px;"></span></section><ol start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="width: 577.422px;list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><ul type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-top: 0cm;width: 556.469px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">新站、瑶海等区域供应过剩,价格竞争激烈,部分楼盘单价跌破1.2万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">去化周期普遍超24个月,需依赖产业导入与配套完善实现价值修复。</span></p></li></ul></ol><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>国企主导市场,改善型产品成主流</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">国企与品牌房企主导:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">绿城、置地、越秀等国企项目包揽成交前列,如绿城锦海棠1月成交金额4.62亿元。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">产品结构升级:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">140㎡以上户型占比超50%,滨湖金融板块、运河新城等规划新区集中供应高端改善盘。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">投资客退潮:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">二手房市场投机行为减少,业主议价空间达7.7%,部分房源挂牌价松动。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>客户态度</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">刚需积极入市,改善需求分化</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚需客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">关注地铁沿线(如新东站片区)或价格洼地(如瑶海),倾向于低总价次新房,部分接受现房溢价10%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">优先选择政务、滨湖等核心区国企开发项目,如高速壹品、越秀和樾府,但受高总价限制持币观望。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策敏感度:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">客户对购房补贴、利率优惠反应积极,但更关注政策持续性及交付风险。</span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>展望</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">短期温和回暖,长期分化加剧</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期(1-2季度):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策刺激下成交量或小幅回升,但价格以“以价换量”为主,核心区抗跌性凸显,远郊需依赖产业导入。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中长期(2025全年):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型产品持续主导市场,核心区土地稀缺性支撑房价,但涨幅受限。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块需解决配套落地滞后问题,否则库存压力或拖累整体市场。</span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;">风险提示:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;">房企债务问题可能引发局部交付风险,政策放松节奏与美联储加息周期或加剧市场波动。</span></section><section 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