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【楼市复盘 019】佛山楼市1-2月:政策托底与市场分化并行

发布于 2025-02-20

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>宽松调控持续加码,地方举措细化</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策组合拳发力:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">佛山发布《推动2025年一季度经济“开门红”20条措施》,落实“佛9条”“佛13条”政策,推动存量房收购,并探索“凭购房合同入学”政策,非本地户籍购房者可凭满期限合同入学。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">信贷支持延续:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套商贷利率维持3.0%(LPR-60BP),公积金贷款额度提升至120万,叠加房企“首付分期”“工抵房”等促销策略,实际购房成本进一步降低。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>利率低位企稳,房企融资分化</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房贷利率处于历史低位:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套商贷利率3.0%,公积金利率2.85%,部分外资银行首套利率低至2.86%,但房企融资改善有限,国企项目仍占主导。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">购房补贴与促销并行:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政府发放5000万购房券,现房项目每平补贴800元,叠加房企“春节不打烊”活动,部分项目通过低价锁房、赠送家电等策略吸引客流。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>成交量低位回升,价格分化显著<o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">成交量:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1月新房成交2288套(环比-47%),二手房成交3711套(环比-38%),但春节后市场活跃度回升,第7周(2.10-2.16)新房网签量环比增138%,二手房成交面积反超新房。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">价格趋势:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区抗跌:禅城、南海千灯湖等板块新房均价超2.1万/㎡,部分高端项目如保利灯湖天珺成交均价达2.9万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">外围承压:三水、高明等区域新房均价不足1万/㎡,部分楼盘月成交仅个位数,价格同比跌幅超10%。</span><o:p></o:p></p></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>核心区与远郊“冰火两重天”</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心板块:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">禅城绿岛湖、南海桂城等区域依托地铁和成熟配套,改善型产品(如140㎡以上大平层)热销,如东建保利项目价格较去年低位上涨5%。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">南海千灯湖板块因广佛同城化红利,新房均价超3.3万/㎡,供需持续紧平衡。</span></section></li></ul></ol><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><ul type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-top: 0cm;margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;width: 556.469px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">三水、高明等区域库存压力突出,去化周期超24个月,部分楼盘推出“7折工抵房”仍难激活市场。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">新站、狮山等区域因配套滞后,价格竞争激烈,部分房源单价跌破1.2万/㎡。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>国企主导市场,改善型产品成主流</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">国企与品牌房企主导:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">顺控城投、保利、绿城等企业包揽成交前列,如顺控·博悦湾春节期间销售额同比上涨68%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">产品结构升级:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">140㎡以上户型占比超50%,四代宅、智能家居等创新产品受改善客群青睐,如大华紫樾府叠墅成交同比增300%。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>客户态度</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">改善需求积极入市,刚需仍显谨慎</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">优先选择核心区国企开发项目(如保利灯湖天珺),关注圈层溢价与教育资源,部分家庭接受现房溢价10%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚需客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">倾向地铁沿线(如佛山新东站片区)或价格洼地(如容桂),但受限于高总价持币观望,部分转向二手房市场。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>展望</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">短期温和回暖,长期分化加剧</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-bottom: 24px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期(1-2季度):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策刺激下成交量或小幅回升,但价格以“以价换量”为主,核心区抗跌性凸显,远郊需依赖产业导入。<o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中长期(2025全年):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型产品持续主导市场,核心区土地稀缺性支撑房价,但涨幅受限。</span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p style=""><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块需解决配套落地滞后问题,否则库存压力或拖累整体市场。</span></p></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 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