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【楼市复盘 020】东莞楼市1-2月:政策宽松难阻市场分化,核心区抗跌与远郊承压并存

发布于 2025-02-20

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>政策面</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>史上最宽松调控,供需双向刺激</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">限购限售全面取消:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">非本地户籍购房取消社保限制,商品住房取消转让年限(限售),推动存量房流通。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首付比例创新低:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套首付比例降至15%,二套20%,叠加“卖旧买新”税费优惠,降低置换门槛。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">专项政策精准发力:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">对现房项目每平补贴800元,多子女家庭公积金贷款额度提升至120万,强化改善型需求释放。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></span></section><section style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02 </span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>资金面</strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>利率低位企稳,房企融资分化</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房贷利率维持历史冰点:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">首套商贷利率3.0%(LPR-60BP),与公积金利率(2.85%)接近,购房成本降至近十年最低。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">房企促销策略分化:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">国企项目(如保利、华润)通过“工抵房”“折扣回收”维持价格,民企则依赖“7折工抵房”加速去化。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">市场流动性改善有限:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">受房企债务压力影响,实际融资规模未显著提升,国企仍占成交主导地位。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>技术面</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>成交量低位波动,价格分化加剧<o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><o:p></o:p></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">成交量:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1月新房成交1053套(环比-76%),二手房2362套(环比-35%),春节假期影响显著。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">价格趋势:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">核心区抗跌:松山湖、南城新房均价超3.5万/㎡,部分高端项目如保利天珺均价达4.2万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊承压:石排、桥头等区域新房均价跌破1万/㎡,部分楼盘同比跌幅超50%。<o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">库存压力:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">五区去化周期约11.9个月,但核心区供不应求,远郊(如洪梅)库存去化停滞。</span></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>板块分化</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>核心区与远郊“冰火两重天”</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>核心板块:</strong><o:p></o:p></span></p><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">松山湖依托华为产业外溢,新房均价达3.5万-6万/㎡,二手房成交创四年新高。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">南城CBD旧改推动区域价值,改善型产品(140㎡以上户型)成交占比超65%。</span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;">远郊板块:</span></strong></span></section><ul type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="margin-top: 0cm;width: 556.469px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">临深区域(塘厦、凤岗)房价较高峰期腰斩,部分楼盘单价跌破1.8万/㎡。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">石排、麻涌等镇街去化周期超24个月,价格竞争激烈。</span></p></li></ul><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 32px;margin-right: 32px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>主力动向</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong>国企主导市场,改善型产品成主流</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">国企与品牌房企主导:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">保利、华润、招商等央企包揽成交前列,如保利天珺单周去化26套。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">产品结构升级:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">140㎡以上大平层及科技住宅(如光伏外墙)占比超50%,溢价达15%-20%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">投资客退潮:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">二手房市场投机行为减少,业主议价空间达7.7%,部分房源挂牌价松动。</span><o:p></o:p></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>客户态度</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">改善需求积极入市,刚需仍显谨慎</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">优先选择核心区国企项目(如旗峰润府),关注教育资源与圈层溢价,部分接受现房溢价10%。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">刚需客户:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">倾向地铁沿线(如滨海湾新区)或价格洼地(如茶山),但受限于高总价持币观望。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策敏感度:</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">客户对购房补贴、利率优惠反应积极,但更关注政策持续性及交付风险。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>展望</strong></span></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;">短期温和回暖,长期分化加剧</strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">短期(1-2季度):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">政策刺激下成交量或小幅回升,核心区价格企稳,远郊仍需“以价换量”。<o:p></o:p></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">中长期(2025全年):</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><o:p></o:p></span></section><ol style="list-style: none;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;" start="1" type="1" class="list-paddingleft-1"><ul style="margin-top:0cm;" type="disc" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="font-size: 16px;">改善型产品持续主导市场,核心区土地稀缺性支撑房价,但涨幅受限。<o:p></o:p></span></p></li><li style="font-size: 16px;"><section style="margin-bottom: 24px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">远郊板块需依赖产业导入与配套完善,否则库存压力或拖累整体市场。<o:p></o:p></span></section></li></ul></ol><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span 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