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【楼市复盘 026】宁波楼市1-2月:政策宽松传导遇阻与板块分化下的结构性博弈 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2025年02月22日 09时56分 郑永祥

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>市场走势</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">量缩价涨,结构性分化加剧</span></strong><p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;">价格表现</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">:</span></strong><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">新建商品住宅价格环比上涨</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">0.6%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">(连续</span>3月收阳),二手住宅环比上涨</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">0.3%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,结束</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“18连阴”并形成“W底”雏形。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">结构性分化</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>144㎡以上大户型领涨(新房</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">+0.5%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">,二手</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">+1.4%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">),而</span>90-120㎡刚需段去化周期仍长达25个月。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">成交量能</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1月新房成交2034套(市六区894套),二手成交3610套(市六区2360套),同比分别下降</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">11.04%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">、</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">28.17%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,呈现</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“缩量上涨”特征。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">高价盘虹吸效应</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:单价</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">3.5</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万以上新房成交占比</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">34%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,主要由江北湾头豪宅(如江山万里</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">·玖洲)集中网签推升均价。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">政策面</span></strong></p><section style="line-height: normal;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">托底与分化并行</span></strong></section><section style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;line-height: normal;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong><br /></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">中央专项债扩容</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">:</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">允许用于土地储备及存量房收购,叠加宁波“促进住房消费大提振”目标,形成政策预期支撑。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">地方增量抓手</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">城中村改造(</span>92个项目/2.6万户)释放需求,房票新政加速货币化安置。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">保障性租赁住房累计筹建</span>21.3万套,分流刚需市场压力。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">资金流向</span></strong></p><h4 style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">土地冷热分化,刚需购买力衰减</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: 20px;font-family: 宋体;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">土地市场:</span></strong><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1月市六区经营性用地成交建面2.27万㎡,同比缩量</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">55.86%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,但鄞州核心区</span>2宗宅地挂牌楼面价达</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">12040</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span>/㎡,溢价预期升温。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">新房资金结构</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">总价</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">600</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万以上成交占比扩大(主要由豪宅拉动),</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">200</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span>-</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">300</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万刚需段占比同步上升,中产改善(</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">300</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">万</span>-</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">500</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万)需求衰减。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">技术面</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.68px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></strong></section><p style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">趋势反转但量价背离</span></strong></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">—</span></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">K线形态</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:新房价格连续</span>3月阳线,二手结束“18连阴”后二次探底回升。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">&nbsp; <span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 13.3333px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">·</span>风险信号</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1月量能萎缩(新房去化率仅</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">39%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">)但价格加速上行,短期&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; 或面临获利盘抛压。</span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05 </span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">主力板块</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">鄞州、慈溪领涨,刚需外溢明显</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"></span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">鄞州</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">:</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">GDP</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">2803.3</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">亿稳居第一,二手成交占比</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">22%</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">,核心地块楼面价突破</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">1.2</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">万元/㎡。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">慈溪</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房成交</span>421套(全市第一),工业用地供应占比</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">45%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">,产城融合加速需求外溢。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin: 12pt 0pt;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">价格博弈加剧,观望情绪主导</span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;font-size: 20px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">买卖方价差拉大</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">海曙青林湾</span>119㎡房源挂牌价</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">265</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万,买家还价</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">226</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万,价差达</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">14.9%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,春节后</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“看房热、成交冷”现象凸显。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">刚需转向二手房</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">总价</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">300</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">万以下二手成交占比</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">86.7%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">,但主城区小户型新房供应不足</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">30%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">,购房者认为</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“房价仍高于承受能力”。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">07&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin: 12pt 0pt;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">政策驱动反弹,长期结构性矛盾未解</span></strong><section style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-left: 24pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;font-size: 20px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">短期政策红利</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">克而瑞预测若专项债、城中村改造持续发力,</span>2025年下半年核心城市房价或止跌趋稳。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">结构性风险</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">新房</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:豪宅热销掩盖刚需疲软,</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">130</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">㎡以下库存去化周期</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">25</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">个月。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">二手</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1月降价房源量是涨价房的</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">9</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">倍(</span>13152套 vs. 1487套),安置房成交占比上升进一步拉低均价。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">长期谨慎</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:10.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">·</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">人口增速放缓(</span>2023年常住人口同比</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">+0.3%</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">)</span>+库存高企(市五区显性库存201.8万㎡),远郊板块价格松动风险上升。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">08&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">策略建议</span></strong></p><section style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-left: 24pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;font-size: 20px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">短期</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">关注政策敏感型板块(如鄞州江东地块、姚江新城),规避高杠杆房企及远郊滞涨项目。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">长期</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">警惕保障房入市(价格约周边商品房</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">4</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">-</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Times New Roman&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;">5</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">折)对刚需市场的分流效应,布局</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“好房子”试点及城市更新衍生需求。</span></span></p><section style="margin: 16px 0px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, 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