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【楼市复盘 027】长沙楼市1-2月:核心区量价突围,远郊板块价格阴跌

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>市场走势</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">量能修复与价格分化</span></strong><h4 style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;">量能表现</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;">2025年1月长沙内五区商品住宅成交24.91万方(同比+33%),成交金额34.07亿元,春节假期(1.28-2.4)网签套数同比暴增142.86%,形成短期放量信号</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span>2月上半月(2.10-2.16)成交309套,环比+147%,但全市新房均价环比持平,同比下跌6.5%。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">价格分化</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">内五区</span>1月新房均价15072元/㎡(同环比双涨),突破1.5万/㎡关键位,但全市均价仅9665元/㎡(环比微涨0.01%),呈现“核心区冲高、远郊躺平”格局</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">。雨花区长沙瑞府(成交</span>8.9亿)带动板块均价至1.8万/㎡,而望城区、长沙县远郊盘仍以“6字头”促销。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度与行为分析</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">情绪分化</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">返乡置业群体</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:春节假期网签套数同比</span>+142.86%,返乡客通过“亲友代看+特价房抄底”加速入场,核心区高赠送户型(如零公摊)成首选。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">改善型需求</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>144-200㎡面积段成交价环比+10%,部分业主为置换核心区房源“割肉甩卖”二手房(同比跌8.5%)。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">远郊观望情绪</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:金星北等远郊库存去化周期超</span>24个月,购房者认为“价格再低也无人接盘”,等待核心区降价或政策加码。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">核心矛盾</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">价格敏感度</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:刚需客紧盯</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“6字头”特价房,但对开发商“送车位”“返现”等促销手段信任度低。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">政策期待</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:购房者普遍关注专项债收储进展及</span>LPR下调幅度,认为“政策力度决定抄底时机”。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点与市场预判</span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">政策驱动逻辑</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">中指研究院</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:预测长沙</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“小阳春”确定性高,核心区改善盘3-4月或涨价5%,但远郊库存可能拖累整体数据。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">克而瑞</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:专项债收储(</span>2月启动)和公积金贷款额度提升至80万是关键催化剂,政策与市场需“双轮驱动”。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">世联行</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:市场呈</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“核心区缺货、远郊滞销”两极分化,建议刚需客3月前锁定梅溪湖、洋湖板块高性价比房源。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">风险提示</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">政策落地风险</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:专项债收储规模若不及预期(目前仅征集芙蓉区、天心区等存量土地),可能引发技术面假突破。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">价格博弈加剧</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:新房均价虽突破</span>1.5万/㎡,但全市均价仍处“躺平”状态(1月环比微涨0.01%),买卖双方对涨价持续性存疑。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.68px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">资金与技术面分析</span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;">资金流向</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">主力资金</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>TOP10房企销售额占比47%,国央企(华润、招商、保利)持仓集中度提升,北向资金(外地购房者)加仓梅溪湖、洋湖板块。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">游资炒作</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“零公摊”概念受捧,40余个新盘主打零公摊户型,现房销售试点吸引短线资金。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">技术指标</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">MACD</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1月DIF上穿DEA形成金叉,但2月上半月量能略有背离,需警惕节后获利盘回吐。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">筹码分布</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:核心区库存去化周期</span>8-10个月(梅溪湖、洋湖),远郊盘(金星北)库存压力超24个月,存在踩踏风险。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"></span><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">操作策略与趋势展望</span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">多头策略</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">逢低布局核心区改善盘(如长沙润府</span>C区),关注3-4月“小阳春”政策催化行情。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">空头警示</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">远郊盘、商铺、写字楼流动性风险高,建议规避;二手房同比跌</span>8.5%,置换需求或引发抛压。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"></span><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">长期趋势</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">城市更新(</span>38个老旧小区改造+30个城中村项目)催生新改善需求,产品力(零公摊+现房销售)取代价格战成核心卖点。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong 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