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【楼市复盘 029】青岛楼市1-2月:主城改善放量筑底,远郊库存缩量承压

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>市场概括</strong></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">缩量调整后企稳,政策底初现</span></strong><p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-size: 17px;font-family: 宋体;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><p style="text-align: left;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></strong></p><p style="vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;">2025<span style="font-family:宋体;">年</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">1</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月青岛楼市呈现</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">“</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">量缩价稳</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">格局,受春节假期影响,新房成交环比下降</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">53.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,但同比上涨</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">6.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,二手房结束</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">21</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">连跌企稳</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span>2月上半月市场逐步修复,新房周成交环比激增171.2%,政策端持续释放利好信号(如山东省20条促消费措施),市场情绪边际回暖。</span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01 </span></strong></strong><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>量价分析</strong></span><span style="font-size: 20px;"></span></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">新房结构性上涨,二手房筑底</span></strong><p><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-bottom: 24px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0px;font-family: 宋体;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></h4><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: 0pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;"></span></span></strong></section><section style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">新房市场</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月均价</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">13312</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">元</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">/</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡(主城占比下降拖累整体),环比微涨</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">0.1%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,连续两月上涨;但同比仍跌</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">5.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,反映长期调整压力。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月总成交</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">5084</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套(同比</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">+6.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">2</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">月上半周成交环比回升</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">93.9%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,刚需主导下</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">110-120</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡户型占比</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">21%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">二手房市场</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">价格</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月环比持平终结</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">21</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">连跌,同比</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">-7.8%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">90</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡以下房源微涨</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">0.2%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,改善型产品仍承压。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">成交</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月成交</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">3802</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">套(环比</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">-38.6%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),但需求韧性高于新房,房东捂盘惜售现象增多。</span></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">板块异动</span></strong></p><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">即墨领涨,李沧去化加速</span></strong><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">即墨区</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span>1<span style="font-family:宋体;">月新房成交</span>1043<span style="font-family:宋体;">套(同比</span>+40.6%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),鲁商学府等三盘贡献</span>60%<span style="font-family:宋体;">成交量,资金虹吸效应显著。</span></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">李沧区</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">去化周期仅</span>9<span style="font-family:宋体;">个月(全市最短),东李世博园板块存量锐减,峯悦湾等项目量价齐升。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">张村河板块</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">高端项目扎堆(如海信君玺、华润崂山悦府),同质化竞争引发价格战,分化加剧。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度与观点</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">—</span></strong></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><br /></span></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">购房者分化</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">刚需客户</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:受政策利好(如公积金利率下调至</span>2.85%<span style="font-family:宋体;">)和促销刺激加速入场,春节期间线上咨询量同比增</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">35%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">改善客户</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:聚焦主城核心区(如李沧世博园、崂山张村河),偏好低密、均好型产品,对同质化刚需盘兴趣低迷。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">二手房买家</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:偏好总价</span>200<span style="font-family:宋体;">万以内成熟现房,次新房源需求升温。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">卖方策略</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房东惜售</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:核心地段房源挂牌价上调</span>10-20<span style="font-family:宋体;">万元,远郊仍降价抛售。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">开发商分化</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:主城央国企联合拿地(如市南轮渡湾),远郊项目降价</span>30%“<span style="font-family:宋体;">以价换量</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">(如城阳鲁昊棠琳湾)。</span></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span></section><p style="padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">05 </span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">资金与政策</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><h4 style="margin-top:12.0000pt;margin-right:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:12.0000pt;margin-left:0.0000pt;text-indent:0.0000pt;padding:0pt 0pt 0pt 0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;background-image: initial;background-position: initial;background-size: initial;background-repeat: initial;background-attachment: initial;background-origin: initial;background-clip: initial;"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;letter-spacing: 0pt;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;font-size: 17px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">央地协同托市,房贷利率下调</span></strong><h4 style="margin-top:0.0000pt;margin-bottom:0.0000pt;vertical-align:baseline;background:rgb(255,255,255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></strong></h4><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"></span></strong></strong></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">政策端</span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">山东省</span>20<span style="font-family:宋体;">条促消费措施(群团购、公积金优化等)叠加青岛</span>“<span style="font-family:宋体;">返乡置业</span>”<span style="font-family:宋体;">促销活动,刺激需求释放。</span></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">资金端</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">存量公积金贷款利率自</span>2025<span style="font-family:宋体;">年起下调(首套</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">5</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">年以上</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">2.85%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">),降低购房成本。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">06&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点与后市展望</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;padding: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><section style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><h4 style="margin-top: 0pt;margin-bottom: 0pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></h4><p style="margin-left: 24pt;letter-spacing: 0.578px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;font-size: 20px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">短期策略</span></span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-family: &quot;Segoe UI&quot;;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:开发商加速去库存,主推中小户型(</span>90-144<span style="font-family:宋体;">㎡占比</span>65%-80%<span style="font-family:宋体;">),精装改毛坯占比提升至</span>45%<span style="font-family:宋体;">。</span></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">长期风险</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">库存压力</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:全市新房去化周期</span>18.7<span style="font-family:宋体;">个月,远郊(胶州、平度)库存高企。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">债务约束</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:居民杠杆率达</span>72%<span style="font-family:宋体;">,主城区月供收入比超</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">45%</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">,制约需求释放。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">机会点</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">核心区(市南、崂山)价格抗跌性强,轨交沿线刚需盘(如保利青铁和著)或持续跑赢大盘。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">&nbsp;策略建议</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">短期</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:关注政策催化下的</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">“</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">小阳春</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">行情,主城改善盘(如青铁芳华地)及地铁沿线刚需项目为优选。</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: inherit;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">长期</span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:规避远郊同质化板块,配置</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">“</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">地段</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">+</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">产品力</span><span style="font-family:Segoe UI;">”</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">双优资产</span></span></p><section style="margin: 16px 0px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 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