官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

【楼市复盘 030】郑州楼市1-2月:主主城改善量价趋稳,远郊库存缩量阴跌

发布于 2025-02-21

<p style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;text-align: center;line-height: 2em;visibility: visible;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">01&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">市场表现与政策效应</span></strong></p><p style="text-align: left;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">量价走势</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">新房量缩价稳</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span>1月新房网签684套,同比+13.6%,环比下降57.3%;价格环比上涨0.3%(连续两月上涨),主城区改善盘(如金水区豫发豫园、惠济区春江观澜)支撑价格韧性。2月上半月春节后单周成交451套,环比+73%,主因返郑客群需求释放及“双节”营销刺激。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">二手房以价换量</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span>1月成交1002套,同比+6.8%,但价格环比下跌0.7%,挂牌量激增导致次新房挂牌价同比下跌5%-10%,老旧小区跌幅超7%。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">政策驱动分化</span></strong><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">房票锁区效应</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">航空港区因房票政策单月成交</span>5.13万㎡(占全市40%),但数据受政策滞后性影响,不具备普适性。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">以旧换新成效</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span>2024年完成10816套目标,2025年首批50-60亿专项资金到位,短期提振置换需求,但长期依赖基本面修复。</span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><p style="vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"></span></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">02</span></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">客户态度与行为特征</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">需求分化加剧</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">刚需观望情绪浓厚</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">首付预算</span>80万元左右的购房者普遍等待政策放松或价格触底,远郊非地铁项目去化承压(如中牟、新郑部分项目降价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">600/㎡</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">仍滞销)。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">改善客群加速置换</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">主城核心区客户担忧优质项目价格上涨,金水北、郑东新区低密小高层项目(如春江观澜)开盘即去化</span>60%。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">现房偏好与价格敏感</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">现房销售信任重构</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">郑州试点现房销售,购房者直言</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“现房交付能直接验房,不用再担心烂尾风险”,金投豫发豫园等现房项目单日成交达30组。</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">二手房抛压显著</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">次新房挂牌价同比下跌</span>5%-10%,部分老旧小区业主因置换需求被迫降价</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">10万</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">-</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">30万</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="margin: 0px 0px 24px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span></span><strong><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"></span></span><span style="text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></strong></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></section><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">03</span></strong></strong></strong></span><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">机构观点与市场预判</span></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;">—</span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);letter-spacing: 0.5px;font-size: 16px;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);letter-spacing: 3px;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;"><br /></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;">政策评估与风险预警</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></span><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">短期刺激存</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“虚火”</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">房票安置等政策虽提振成交量,但居民收入预期偏弱、二手房库存超</span>16万套等问题仍制约市场信心,新房价格涨幅与成交量背离。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">远郊流动性风险</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">航空港区、荥阳库存去化周期超</span>24个月,机构提示警惕非地铁项目价格踩踏(部分开发商或降价$10%+送车位回款)。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">核心资产价值凸显</span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">主城改善盘为</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“安全垫”</span></span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">金水区、郑东新区土地稀缺性(去化周期</span>6个月)支撑价格中枢上移,预计主城新房价格或突破</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">3万/㎡</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">房企转型方向</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">建业等企业通过</span><span style="font-family:宋体;">“物业+生活服务”提升续约率20%,中小开发商转向代建、产业配套赛道。</span></span></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><strong style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;visibility: visible;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;font-size: 45px;letter-spacing: 0px;visibility: visible;">04&nbsp;</span></strong></strong></strong><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="font-size: 20px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">后市策略与趋势展望</span></strong></p><p style="margin-right: 0pt;margin-left: 21pt;padding: 0pt;vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="font-size: var(--articleFontsize);letter-spacing: 0.034em;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration-style: solid;text-decoration-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);">—</span></strong></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0px;text-decoration: none solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);"></span></strong></section><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">政策与市场博弈</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">二季度需求窗口期</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">:</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">契税补贴、公积金贷款额度提升至</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">130万</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">等政策持续发力,预计全年新房成交面积突破</span>1200万㎡(同比+15%)。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">分化格局延续</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">主城与近郊价差扩大,金水区、郑东新区房价涨幅领跑,远郊区域去化周期维持</span>18个月以上。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 24pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;">购房者策略建议</span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:宋体;mso-bidi-font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:0.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">核心区逢低布局</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">优先选择主城</span>120㎡+改善户型(如金茂未来府146㎡户型去化率超60%),利用现房优势锁定成本。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 48pt;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong><span style="font-family: Symbol;font-size: 10pt;">·</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;">规避远郊风险</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">:</span></span></strong><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;">警惕中牟、新郑等非地铁项目,关注次新二手房急售房源(挂牌价低于市场价</span>10%以上可入手)。</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="margin: 0px 16px;vertical-align: baseline;background: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:宋体;font-size:12.0000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><span style="font-family:宋体;"></span></span></section><section style="margin: 16px 0px;line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;font-size: 12px;caret-color: red;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">*</span><br style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;" /></section></section><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;min-height: 1em;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;min-height: 1em;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">关注分享</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;caret-color: red;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-size: 12px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;">FOLLOW US &amp; SHARE ON MOMENTS</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;line-height: 1.75em;"><br /></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(127, 127, 127);font-family: PingFangTC-Light;letter-spacing: 0.544px;">土拍交流群</span></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="outer" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-imgfileid="100035190" data-ratio="0.9763313609467456" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwl2VMPo5Qco6GDiaFrD2HHORKkqQ8WYGbb3mjzcezd08RRBeoB46kyEcbcg4B3wPaTpMic8cacvMwqA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="338" style="width: 207px;height: auto !important;"></p></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-bottom: 0px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><section data-role="paragraph" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;min-height: 1em;"><br style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;" /></section></section></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><br style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;" /></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-right: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 8px;outline: 0px;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;outline: 0px;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;">▼▼▼</span></section><p><o:p></o:p></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><br /></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库