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【6月】上海土地拍卖价预测!

发布于 2016-06-06

<p>上海土地市场5月份成交火热,南桥、泗泾、周浦陆续拍出多块地王。6月预计将拍卖5宗纯宅地,范围覆盖宝山、嘉定、奉贤区县。以下为本月土地拟成交日历——</p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncgLSCYCmTMVXuV55QPpiaNt868pruKo5N7p5ew78VkZSG8r5iav54FHWdA/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="1.3327338129496402" data-w="" /></p><p><br /></p><p>禾略在<strong>顾村村住宅地块</strong>拍卖前曾做过<a href="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIzMjE5MDQxMQ==&amp;mid=2650964776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f180a275d64eee270a3bb65dae8effa1&amp;scene=1&amp;srcid=0531nDqzITHah3L4Gghqt2B0&amp;pass_ticket=BfUiZzP92XSnEaDr2b2KkrbtYXdZ1VsSEV6H6sA1HEUR9EEloPKR3LgC93yED9di#rd" target="_blank" data_ue_src="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIzMjE5MDQxMQ==&amp;mid=2650964776&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=f180a275d64eee270a3bb65dae8effa1&amp;scene=1&amp;srcid=0531nDqzITHah3L4Gghqt2B0&amp;pass_ticket=BfUiZzP92XSnEaDr2b2KkrbtYXdZ1VsSEV6H6sA1HEUR9EEloPKR3LgC93yED9di#rd">预测</a>(30190元/平方米),然而pia pia 被打脸——</p><pre ng-bind-html="message.MMActualContent"><span style="font-size: 14px;">宝山区宝山新城顾村A单元10-03、10-05地块,商住用地。占地106369.2㎡,容积率1.5,建面157052.95㎡,由信达以58.05亿夺得,楼板价36962元/平米,溢价303%。</span></pre><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-type="gif" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncgibHLwQEuSvQMoicMaY6BglhQ8yZK7Uz05ibtde849VB9qEqUkiaSDQkZew/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.7138888888888889" data-w="360" /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>但禾略又怎么会轻易放弃!所以聪明的我们换了另一种方法——</p><p><br /></p><p>分别拿5月二手房房价涨幅(此指标主要反映了大众对该板块房地产市场的预期)与周浦、南桥、泗泾的地价做线性回归、二项回归以及指数回归</p><p><br /></p><p><img data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncgwCWGqk7QRefbfhpVviaroiaopt2YM8OBEyHfdCPccSKNbkqoMBszb7zg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-ratio="0.2715827338129496" data-w="" /><br /></p><p>结果发现Sig为0.61<0.1,即<strong><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">房价涨幅显著影响着地价预测</span></strong><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">,</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">且</span>线性回归R方高达0.991,即模型拟合<strong>准确率高达99%!</strong></p><p><strong><br /></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-s="300,640" data-type="jpeg" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncgpq6Q5HcrHwRn5bApclvhegeNb2DUUaLK54Brnj4Y91lbeuAdy1hh5g/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-ratio="0.5670103092783505" data-w="388" /><br /></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">吓得小编赶紧</span>通过<strong>一般线性回归以及二手房房价涨幅</strong>来预测地价<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">——</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">通过这个方法,将“</span>宝山区宝山新城顾村A单元10-03”进行重新计算,拍卖预测价为37956元/平米(实际为36962<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">元/平米</span>)</p><p style="text-align: center;"><img data-type="gif" data-src="http://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz/zd226QNNqG5FFo1OLkI3fBeaPlVdsncg9BNtkib3ym35WIC8gF0jOCVT17snG4AQuhJaM6BNJPGVa2fKv5h8dUw/0?wx_fmt=gif" data-ratio="0.7194444444444444" data-w="360" /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span><br /></p><p>内心充满愉悦地,对接下来6月拟成交<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">4</span><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">宗纯宅地,进行<strong>拍卖价范围预测</strong>——</span></p><p><br /></p><p>嘉定区徐行镇06-04地块:33268-34716元/平米</p><p><br /></p><p>嘉定区嘉定新城E27-1地块:<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">33268-34716元/平米</span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">奉贤区南桥新城15单元23A-01A区域地块:<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">22885-23650</span><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">元/平米</span><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"></span></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><span style="line-height: 25.6px;">奉贤区南桥新城10单元01D-03区域地块:22885-23650<span style="line-height: 25.6px;">元/平米</span></span></span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="line-height: 25.6px;"></span></p><section class="tn-Powered-by-XIUMI" style="margin-top: 0.5em; 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