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一个盘,吃掉上海高端市场一半

发布于 2026-08-16

<section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;padding: 28px 0px 6px;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><p style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(201, 162, 75);letter-spacing: 5px;margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">上海高端住宅 · 深度观察</span></p><h1 style="font-size: 23px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);line-height: 1.45;margin: 12px 4px 10px;"><span leaf="">一个盘,吃掉上海高端市场一半</span></h1><p style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(154, 160, 166);margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">数据经多源交叉核验 · 核验明细见文末附录</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);border-left: 4px solid rgb(201, 162, 75);padding: 14px 16px;margin: 20px 0px;border-radius: 0px 6px 6px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 13px;color: rgb(92, 96, 102);line-height: 1.7;"><span leaf="">数据说明:本文所有数字均经公开多源交叉核验(克而瑞 / 中指 / 乐居 / 网易 / 焦点网等),核验明细见文末附录。</span></p></section><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;margin: 26px 0px;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px 10px;font-size: 11px;"><span leaf="">◆</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 30px 0px 14px;text-align: center;"><h2 style="font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">一、现象引入</span></h2><p style="width: 38px;height: 3px;background: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px auto;border-radius: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">2026 年 8 月,上海浦东后滩,一个叫</span><b style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">云启滨江</span></b><span leaf="">的楼盘交出一份成绩单:</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;background: rgb(247, 249, 252);border: 1px solid rgb(228, 233, 242);border-radius: 8px;padding: 16px 18px;margin: 16px 0px;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(92, 96, 102);"><span leaf="">8 个月 · 9 次开盘 · 1000+ 买家 · 累计销售额&nbsp;</span><span style="background: rgb(27, 42, 74);color: rgb(243, 230, 196);font-weight: 800;padding: 1px 6px;border-radius: 4px;"><span leaf="">220亿</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(92, 96, 102);"><span leaf="">首开认购率&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">225%</span></strong><span leaf="">,日光;最近一批次认购率&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">168%</span></strong><span leaf="">,触发限售。4 套总价过亿的顶复,全部卖光。</span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">上海 2026 年上半年高端住宅市场,</span><b style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">每卖出两套总价 2000 万以上的房子,就有一套来自这个盘。</span></b></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">这不是营销的胜利。这是</span><b style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">结构性套利</span></b><span leaf="">的胜利。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 30px 0px 14px;text-align: center;"><h2 style="font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">二、把"为什么卖得动"拆开算账</span></h2><p style="width: 38px;height: 3px;background: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px auto;border-radius: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></section><h3 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 22px 0px 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(201, 162, 75);"><span leaf="">第一层:市场——单盘吃掉高端市场一半</span></h3><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">把上海新房市场看成一个蛋糕:</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 12px 0px;"><p style="margin: 7px 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">▍</span></span><span leaf="">整个上海新房市场(TAM):全年约&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">2800亿</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 7px 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">▍</span></span><span leaf="">其中总价 1500 万以上的高端住宅(SAM):约&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">456亿</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 7px 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);font-weight: 700;margin-right: 8px;"><span leaf="">▍</span></span><span leaf="">云启滨江一个盘(SOM):</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">220亿</span></strong></p></section><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;margin: 18px 0px;padding: 14px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="margin: 0px;font-size: 18px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">SOM / SAM =&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);"><span leaf="">48.2%</span></span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">翻译成人话:上海高端住宅市场,</span><b style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">一半的成交金额被这一个盘拿走。</span></b><span leaf="">这不是正常市场结构,是"以盘代市"——高端市场供给严重不足,云启滨江是唯一大规模放量的供给方。买家不是被营销说服的,是没得选。</span></p><h3 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 22px 0px 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(201, 162, 75);"><span leaf="">第二层:价格——倒挂 40%,买到即赚到</span></h3><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">云启滨江备案均价&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">13.94万/㎡</span></strong><span leaf="">。同板块一线滨江次新二手挂牌多少?18-21万/㎡,取中位&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">19.5万</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">一手比二手便宜&nbsp;</span><span style="background: rgb(27, 42, 74);color: rgb(243, 230, 196);font-weight: 800;padding: 1px 6px;border-radius: 4px;"><span leaf="">40%</span></span><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">用对偶翻转定价重算一遍:竞品新房中海安澜 17.29万/㎡、绿城潮鸣 17.5万/㎡,都比它贵;周边二手 19.5万/㎡,更贵。四路替代成本里最低的一条是"放弃购买"——14.78万/㎡,还是比它贵。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">价格天花板算出来是&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">19.29万/㎡</span></strong><span leaf="">。现价 13.94 万,离天花板还有&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">5.56万</span></strong><span leaf="">的安全垫。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;margin: 20px 0px;padding: 18px;background: rgb(27, 42, 74);border-radius: 8px;"><p style="color: rgb(243, 230, 196);font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;margin: 0px;line-height: 1.75;"><span leaf="">所以结论很反直觉:这个盘不是卖贵了,是卖便宜了。</span><br /><span leaf="">它是刻意用倒挂换流速——价格不是卖点,是套利空间。</span></p></section><h3 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 22px 0px 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(201, 162, 75);"><span leaf="">第三层:增长——卖得快不是因为贵,是因为便宜</span></h3><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">用 LMDI 分解首开到前 5 批的金额增长:</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">97.3%</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;来自成交量效应,只有&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">2.7%</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;来自涨价。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">翻译成人话:这个盘卖得越来越猛,不是因为涨价预期,是因为价格锚定在二手之下,买家觉得"现在不买就亏了"。</span></p><h3 style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;font-size: 16px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 22px 0px 10px;padding-left: 10px;border-left: 3px solid rgb(201, 162, 75);"><span leaf="">第四层:操盘——高频推盘制造稀缺</span></h3><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">8 个月 9 次开盘,月均&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">117套</span></strong><span leaf="">。每次开盘都触发高认购率,反复制造"抢不到"的认知。稀缺反哺价格,价格反哺流速,正循环。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 30px 0px 14px;text-align: center;"><h2 style="font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">三、为什么只有它能这么干</span></h2><p style="width: 38px;height: 3px;background: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px auto;border-radius: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">三个不可复制的条件叠在一起。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">第一,土地。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">后滩九宫格最后一幅纯宅地。整个九宫格规划供应约&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">3640套</span></strong><span leaf="">,云启滨江是收官地块。稀缺叙事是写进土地里的,不是营销编出来的。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">第二,品牌。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">华润置地 + 南房集团,双央企。2025 年 8 月华润联合南房&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">244.7亿</span></strong><span leaf="">摘得后滩 + 余庆里资产包,创全国单次拿地纪录。买家买的是"交付安全"——在烂尾焦虑蔓延的市场里,这是硬通货。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">第三,客群。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">世博 - 后滩 26 家央企近 80 家公司,前滩近 300 家企业,七成外企。2000 万级客群占近一半,3000 万级 27%,5000 万级 22%。这不是散客市场,是职住一体的内生购买力。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 30px 0px 14px;text-align: center;"><h2 style="font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">四、泼三盆冷水</span></h2><p style="width: 38px;height: 3px;background: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px auto;border-radius: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">这套打法有边界。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">倒挂会收窄。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">40% 的安全垫建立在二手不跌的前提上。二手一旦抛压加大,倒挂收窄,"买到即赚到"的叙事就松动。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">政策会变。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">限购 / 限贷收紧,直接冲击高净值客群。</span></p><p style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 16px 0px 8px;font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">竞品会跟。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 8px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">若竞品跟进降价,价格锚定优势被稀释。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">还有一层要盯:认购&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">936套</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;和网签&nbsp;</span><strong style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">362套</span></strong><span leaf="">,两个口径差了一倍多。认购是意向,网签才是真金白银,回款节奏值得关注。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 30px 0px 14px;text-align: center;"><h2 style="font-size: 19px;font-weight: 800;color: rgb(27, 42, 74);margin: 0px 0px 8px;"><span leaf="">五、收尾</span></h2><p style="width: 38px;height: 3px;background: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px auto;border-radius: 2px;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></section><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">云启滨江的 200 亿,本质是一道算术题:当供给断档遇上价格倒挂,</span><b style="color: rgb(27, 42, 74);"><span leaf="">确定性就成了最稀缺的商品</span></b><span leaf="">。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">它证明了一件事:在高端市场,买家不是为"贵"买单,是为"确定"买单。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 14px 0px;text-align: justify;"><span leaf="">一个盘吃掉半个市场,不是这个盘太强,是市场太缺。缺的不是房子,是让人敢立刻掏钱的确定性。</span></p><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;text-align: center;margin: 28px 0px;"><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(201, 162, 75);margin: 0px 10px;font-size: 11px;"><span leaf="">◆</span></span><span leaf="">&nbsp;</span></section><section style="color: rgb(31, 35, 41);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin: 24px 0px 10px;"><h3 style="font-size: 15px;font-weight: 700;color: rgb(92, 96, 102);margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span leaf="">数据核验摘要(2026-08-16 核验)</span></h3></section><table style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;width: 394px;border-collapse: collapse;margin: 12px 0px 6px;font-size: 12.5px;color: rgb(31, 35, 41);"><thead><tr><th style="background: rgb(27, 42, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 9px 8px;text-align: left;font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">数据</span></section></th><th style="background: rgb(27, 42, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 9px 8px;text-align: left;font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">报告值</span></section></th><th style="background: rgb(27, 42, 74);color: rgb(255, 255, 255);padding: 9px 8px;text-align: left;font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">核验结果</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">累计销售额</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">220亿</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">截至 6/28 为 210亿+,8/5 官方口径 220亿,双口径</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">首开认购率</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">225%</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">多源一致</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">认购率 168% 触发限售</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">168%</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">九批次一致</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">备案均价</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">13.94万/㎡</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">官方网签 134156-139688 元/㎡,一致</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">二手次新</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">19.5万/㎡</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">一线滨江次新 18-21 万区间中位</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">竞品中海安澜/绿城潮鸣</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">17.29/17.5万</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">17.28/17.5 万,一致</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">华润上海</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">289.5亿全口径/296亿操盘</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">上海第一(原 417.9亿无来源,已修正)</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;background: rgb(250, 246, 236);font-weight: 600;"><section><span leaf="">后滩九宫格供应</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">3640套</span></section></td><td style="border: 1px solid rgb(230, 225, 214);padding: 8px;"><section><span leaf="">一致</span></section></td></tr></tbody></table><section style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.3px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;margin-top: 26px;padding-top: 14px;border-top: 1px dashed rgb(216, 201, 160);font-size: 12px;color: rgb(154, 160, 166);text-align: center;"><p style="margin: 0px;"><span leaf="">商务合作欢迎加微👇</span></p></section><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="502360136" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmecoa.qpic.cn/mmecoa_png/mNkpYvnxIA02T7G0HWrSzOOj1NAJK5VPqnMudPe4deOmUD4qp59YjS0U0sqduTnZia3R5G1IgGvvAb9TVzvCdcrDrh9aqTBzbqNfOmfmjKgU/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block"></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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