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三一重工二季报超预期!现金流强劲分红26亿,高盛为何仍喊“卖出”?

发布于 2025-09-03

<blockquote style="margin: 6px 0px;padding: 6px 12px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;border-left: 4px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><span leaf="">挖掘机指数背后的冷暖</span></p></blockquote><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">【图:三一重工挖掘机作业现场配图】</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">8月22日盘后,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">中国工程机械龙头三一重工(600031.SH)交出了一份亮眼的成绩单</span></strong><span leaf="">:二季度净利润同比猛增38%,经营现金流飙升41%,同时宣布豪掷26亿元现金分红。但令人意外的是,国际投行高盛在最新研报中却维持“卖出”评级。这背后究竟隐藏着怎样的行业密码?</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">超预期三连击:利润、毛利、现金流全线飘红</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">三一重工二季度实现净利润27.5亿元</span></strong><span leaf="">,不仅同比大增38%,更超出高盛预期5个百分点。这份惊喜主要来自两大引擎:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">毛利率逆势突围</span></strong><span leaf="">:在行业成本压力下,28.2%的毛利率反而比预期高出0.3个百分点。尤其是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">混凝土机械、挖掘机和起重机三大核心产品</span></strong><span leaf="">,毛利率同比提升2-3个百分点,展现出强大的成本控制能力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">费用管控显成效</span></strong><span leaf="">:虽然销售费用超预期,但管理费用大幅缩减,使总运营费用比预期低2%。最终</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">营业利润率达到12.4%</span></strong><span leaf="">,同比提升1.1个百分点。</span></p></li></ol><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">【图:三一重工近三年毛利率趋势图(标注28.2%最新数据)】</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">更亮眼的是现金流表现——</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">经营现金流暴涨41%至57.2亿元</span></strong><span leaf="">,相当于净利润的2.1倍!叠加资本支出同比下降38%,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">自由现金流飙升至51.9亿元</span></strong><span leaf="">,同比激增62%。真金白银的造血能力,让三一有底气宣布中期分红26.1亿元,分红比例高达50%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">产品分化:路面机械暴涨30%,混凝土设备拖后腿</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">深入拆解业务板块,呈现冰火两重天:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">明星产品</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">路面机械销售暴涨30%</span></strong><span leaf="">,远超行业21%的增速;</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">起重机逆势增长20%+</span></strong><span leaf="">,在行业下滑2%背景下靠海外市场强力驱动;桩工机械和挖掘机保持约10%稳健增长。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">短板领域</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:混凝土机械成为唯一下滑品类,同比下跌9%,拖累整体表现。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">【图:三一各产品线增速与行业对比柱状图】</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">区域市场同样呈现分化格局:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">国内市场韧性超预期</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:同比增长约20%,成为业绩压舱石</span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">海外增速明显放缓</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:从去年三季度开始的两位数增长回落至中高位数(HSD%)。上半年海外增长12%,略低于公司15%的目标。其中非洲市场表现最佳(+40%),亚太稳健(+16%),而欧美市场基本持平。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">高盛“卖出”评级背后的三大隐忧</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">尽管业绩亮眼,高盛却维持17元目标价和“卖出”评级,这背后是对行业周期的深刻担忧:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">国内需求寒冬未过</span></strong><span leaf="">:工程机械行业自2021年二季度进入下行周期,至今已持续4年。高盛认为,</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">国内市场需求仍未触底</span></strong><span leaf="">,下一轮高峰可能只有2020年峰值水平的55%。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">产品结构小型化冲击利润</span></strong><span leaf="">:无论是国内新农村建设,还是海外新兴市场拓展,都更依赖小型设备。高盛指出:“</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">产品结构向小型机械倾斜,将拉低单机利润</span></strong><span leaf="">”,影响下一轮周期的盈利能力。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">海外增速已现疲态</span></strong><span leaf="">:二季度海外增速明显放缓,而海外业务贡献了公司71%的毛利。若全球化红利减弱,将直接影响业绩弹性。</span></p></li></ol><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">【图:工程机械行业周期波动示意图(标注当前所处阶段)】</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">机械巨头的转型突围之路</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">面对周期挑战,三一正在双线作战:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">技术革命</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:重金投入电动化、数字化研发,财报显示研发费用持续高企。电动挖掘机已在国内市场占据25%份额。</span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">全球布局</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:在印尼、非洲等新兴市场建立本地化工厂,半年报显示</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">海外收入占比已突破50%</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">一位湖南泵车经销商向我们透露:“</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">今年农村小型工程机械需求明显增加</span></strong><span leaf="">,但单价只有大型设备的1/3。三一推出的微型挖掘机虽然走量,但经销商利润空间确实被压缩了。”</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">投资者该如何看待?</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">三一重工当前动态市盈率约17倍,1.5%的股息率在制造业中颇具吸引力。但周期股的估值核心在于对行业拐点的判断:</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">看多者认为</span></strong><span leaf="">:基建投资加码+设备更新周期将至,龙头将率先受益。真金白银的分红印证现金流质量。</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">看空者担忧</span></strong><span leaf="">:房地产下行拖累需求,海外市场面临地缘政治风险。高盛预测“下一轮行业高峰利润可能不及预期”。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">结语</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">三一重工作为“机械茅”的这份成绩单,展现了中国制造的硬实力。但摆在投资者面前的,依然是那个经典命题:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">当行业凛冬未过时,是否该为春天的到来提前布局?</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;或许正如施工现场的智慧:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">最好的开挖时机,不是在暴雨倾盆时,也不是在烈日当空后,而是在泥土将干未干之际。</span></strong></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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