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三胎政策放开,真的能生起来吗?

发布于 2021-06-02

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1.59em;margin-left: 15px;margin-right: 15px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;caret-color: red;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: #5D5A5A;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></span></p><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.59em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="text-indent: 0em;caret-color: red;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: #5D5A5A;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">中共中央政治局5月31日召开会议,听取十四五时期积极应对人口老龄化重大政策举措汇报,审议《</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;caret-color: red;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: #5D5A5A;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》。会议指出,党的十八大以来,党中央根据我国人口发展变化形势,先后做出实施单独两孩、全面两孩政策等重大决策部署,取得积极成效。同时,我国人口总量庞大,近年来人口老龄化程度加深。进一步优化生育政策,实施一对夫妻可以生育三个子女政策及配套支持措施,有利于改善我国人口结构、落实积极应对人口老龄化国家战略、保持我国人力资源禀赋优势。</span></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;max-inline-size: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-backh="197" data-backw="578" data-ratio="0.3410981697171381" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwMcibPLU6Okhqzzklrqdyce2R3X9v20t7UuTqdvfG7noxE2mBqt2noZYfZReECAtadDTg9cSGMtDQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1202" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(93, 90, 90);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">为什么国家会在这个时间节点提出放开三胎政策呢,主要因为近年来人口老龄化态势愈发严峻,生育水平持续走低。从2001年到2019年全国人口出生率经历三个时期。第一个时期是2001-2015年,整体呈缓慢下降趋势,人口出生率年均下降0.09个千分点;第二个时期是2015-2016年,全面二胎政策提出,整体呈显著提升态势,人口出生率增长0.88个千分点;第三个时期是2016-2019年,整体呈急剧下降趋势,人口出生率和年均下降0.82个千分点,是第一个时期下降水平的9倍,生育水平下降趋势之惨烈可见一斑。</span></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;"><img data-ratio="0.4879074658254469" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwMcibPLU6Okhqzzklrqdycezsfksp5NHem1vUJqicNCQryCeibRQ7OwYicVcvet1McjKVV6AUqbEXsSA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="951" /></p><section style="text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(93, 90, 90);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">看完全国整体的发展趋势,我们再从空间结构来看各省生育率的分布情况。从现状来看西藏自治区生育率最高,是唯一突破14个千分点的区域,达到了14.6‰,北京、上海以及天津三大直辖市和东三省人口生育率垫底。从趋势来看,2016-2019年人口生育率变化广东、吉林、贵州、四川以及宁夏五大区域为正增长,人口生育率在全国大的下降趋势下实现了区域增长,而山东和新疆两大区域则年均下降2个千分点,生育率下降最为显著。综合生育率当前现状和发展趋势两个维度看,广东、贵州、四川以及宁夏四大区域现状生育率高且过去三年生育率正增长,可能会成为响应这一轮人口新政的先行者。</span></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;"><img data-ratio="0.46877912395153776" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwMcibPLU6OkhqzzklrqdycewDBOEsMOgNBhIib3uv62EKPlibl9QMD8tzGqibdc2WiaK98pR2P3a7ekwA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1073" /></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:justify;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 2em;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><section data-role="outer" style="max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;max-inline-size: 100%;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;font-size: 12px;color: rgb(123, 127, 131);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;">///</span></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;margin-right: 15px;margin-left: 15px;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;max-inline-size: 100%;cursor: text;line-height: 1.75em;letter-spacing: 1px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p><section style="margin-top: 10px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;box-sizing: 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!important;">我们去看全国历年人口年龄结构变化,会发现2020年(七普)和2010年(六普)相比,有两个大的发展趋势。第一个是适龄劳动人口的显著减少,从2010年的占比74.5%下降至2020年68.5%,下降了6个百分点;第二个是人口老龄化趋势显著,65岁以上人口占比从2010年8.9%上升至2020年13.5%,上升了4.6个百分点。</span></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;"><img data-ratio="0.4995242626070409" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwMcibPLU6OkhqzzklrqdyceOATDS7O8JYRLYJOcc5MJne0iawongrmZAsusYvPT24iaGkE8W95Jic1oA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1051" /></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(93, 90, 90);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">从这两个大的发展趋势之中我们可以看到一个严峻的问题,中间部分的劳动力人口负担越来越重,这也跟三胎开放政策公布以来的近两天大家在各大信息平台调侃的一样,一胎都养不动,怎么去养二胎三胎呢。我们从全国历年抚养比的变化同样能清晰的看到这个问题。从数据走势可以看出,抚养比在2010年发生重大转折。全国非劳动年龄人口与劳动年龄人口之比(总抚养比)开始显著提升,同样在2010年发生显著变化的还有少儿抚养比,其在2010年之后转跌为升,而老年抚养比则是持续保持上升态势。</span></section><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><p style="text-align:center;text-indent: 0em;"><img data-ratio="0.4976613657623948" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwMcibPLU6OkhqzzklrqdycepRxxro6dHnmr2appkkibwN28qE4RPryPnoHPYpESAiaH6xa8S0lHRFcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1069" /></p><p style="text-indent: 0em;"><br /></p><section style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;"><span style="max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(93, 90, 90);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">所以可以看出生育率的持续下降,推动着人口结构的老龄化,进一步导致劳动人口的总体规模减少和人均负担的增加,那三胎开放的现实负担问题仍会成为提高生育率、改善人口结构目标的重大掣肘。所以当前社会生与不生的决策可能并不全是观念问题,而更多的可能是现实负担问题,那新政中所提及的配套支持措施可能是战略目标实施的关键因子。</span></section><section data-role="paragraph"><p><br /></p></section><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></p><p style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></p><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section 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