官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

不盘活房地产,消费也难救。

发布于 2025-08-08

<section class="channels_iframe_wrp" nodeleaf=""><mp-common-videosnap class="js_uneditable custom_select_card channels_iframe videosnap_video_iframe mp_common_widget" data-type="video" data-id="export/UzFfAgtgekIEAQAAAAAA_Wo6vtlL4AAAAAstQy6ubaLX4KHWvLEZgBPEzYI4PyUoSPiPzNPgMItcJlrkhg9a6ZCkYPnpmx0g" data-url="https://findermp.video.qq.com/251/20304/stodownload?encfilekey=rjD5jyTuFrIpZ2ibE8T7Ym3K77SEULgkiawibJhqqVO3b2P3icibR7xsRMcibx95ec8qicwAS1XETBCU4JUWX7SxFa62cicRZuZNia6CKlGA5uT8ynATh5r6LXrrrQw&amp;token=x5Y29zUxcibD0uz715wE6KD6o1rpXoYV3lMzZZhCwGBIdQPfdnyv0QGGiaHnaKOoOtLyjGpibudTiceT59N3AEMnL5DEZrnolAEvD2iaia2aTDFw9yVV2DmlPZN0ZFwCV5lz7IicWhKbgL32M20YeGHzHM1DpUib2yUtZthRwHEJtTEzQRc&amp;idx=1&amp;hy=SZ&amp;m=&amp;scene=2&amp;uzid=1" data-headimgurl="http://wx.qlogo.cn/finderhead/OU2rqvx645smeBtlHNveXFt6ncL3rn767zgFy3U755zMJ66icKrkZOFlOeqlc6rQcH59D42aq8hs/0" data-nickname="禾略" data-username="v2_060000231003b20faec8c4e18d10cbd6c80dee34b07736396e416723fd5650a5715e7448b841@finder" data-desc="不盘活房地产消费也难救!当财富创造抵不过财富蒸发,经济什么时候才能好? #经济 #财经 #房地产 #房价 #财富

" data-mediatype="" data-width="1924" data-height="1080" data-nonceid="10700373932627041225" data-parentwidth="344" data-isdisabled="0" data-errortips=""></mp-common-videosnap></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;font-style: italic;">很多人觉得房价跌了挺好房子便宜了吗?</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;font-style: italic;">但问题没那么简单,这背后牵扯的是整个经济的神经。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">先看数据,这可是实打实的硬指标。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><br /></span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2021</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年咱们国家新建的房子面积达到了一个高峰,差不多是</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">18</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">亿平方米。那会儿市场还挺热乎,结果到了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2022</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年,咣当一下直接掉到十三四亿平米,这可不是小打小闹,是断崖式下跌。</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">然后呢,</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2023</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年、</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2024</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年一路往下走,现在估计连</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">10</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">亿平米都不到,甚至可能不到</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">9</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">亿平米。这说明什么?说明整个房地产市场的活跃度或者说需求量已经大幅萎缩了,而且不光是盖的房子少了,卖出去的钱,也就是销售额和面积也在持续负增长。虽然幅度不大,大概</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">到</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">3%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">,但这趋势是明确的,还在往下走,这就像一个曾经的巨人,突然开始快速瘦身,而且看起来还没完。光看盖了多少房子还不够,还得看这些房子值多少钱。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5583333333333333" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040824" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoicc8SLuFcGJ54orrlibibT45EIT7sG7Kb1LuvzNUCYe3lGlL2KFSGOJrvDQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这里有个关键数字,根据估算,到</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2024</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年底,全国平均房价大概跌了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">30%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">左右。注意,这是个平均数,实际操作中,不同地方差别很大,尤其是一些二三线城市,甚至远郊,那跌幅可能比</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">30%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">还狠的多。</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">你想想,如果一个地方房价跌了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">50%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">甚至</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">60%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">,那对当地居民的心理冲击得多大?所以,这个</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">30%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">的平均跌幅其实是个比较保守的说法,很多地方可能更惨,这不仅仅是数字上的变化,它直接影响到老百姓的财富感受和未来的信心。</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5574074074074075" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040825" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoiccHASqjBLGiaC0VxqFe6kEbDpYr2WXBoQMdSSmcdQRZ0srNzjy6kxUeJA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">面对这么明显的下滑,政府也不是没出手,去年</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">9</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">月份,央行和财政部一起上场搞了一系列政策,又是降息,又是其他支持措施,想给市场加点油,当时确实有点效果,你看五月份的数据,好像市场回暖了一点点,这就像给一个发烧的人喂了退烧药,体温暂时降下来了,但是这种反弹并没有持续住,很快就又掉头向下,这说明什么?说明房地产市场的问题可能不是简单的缺钱或者缺政策就能解决的,它背后有更深层次的原因在起作用,或者说外部的刺激力度还不够,或者说市场自身的惯性太大了。</span></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5564814814814815" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040826" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoicceEXpLgbibXLypINXBKsl0AbrKTCTh2uI8xhmLZ6ibKpQVfJO6VNaGwiaA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">除了直接影响投资,房地产下跌还会通过消费产生连锁反应。这得从两个方面看,第一,装修,你买了新房是不是得装修买家具家电?在一线城市,一套房子装修加这些东西少说也得四五十万吧,这可是笔不小的开销,现在大家不买房了,这一大块消费就没了。</span></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5592592592592592" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040827" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoiccWOTjaTJq8ibTly49v4YDghdeD7Y34ASzVQ3O6ia4UBwP0ceXbkibMHCAA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">第二,日常消费。很多人可能会说,你看街上吃饭旅游的人也不少啊,消费好像还不错。这话没错,但问题是这种日常消费的总量是有限的。你想想一个人一年吃喝玩乐能花多少钱?很难达到几十万的级别。而买房、装修这种大额消费,它的频率虽然不高,但一旦发生,就能带动一大片相关产业。现在这部分引擎熄火了,整个消费大盘自然就显得动力不足。</span></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5555555555555556" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040828" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoiccibt8zANkURvibWQWQHsxuDZNA90lUibWuX9tLgibIPvKsQSaViaGhaiaIjzQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">接下来这个点可能很多人没太意识到,但它非常关键,叫做财富效应。就是当房价涨的时候,哪怕你没卖房套现,但看到自己家的房子越来越值钱,心里也会觉得,哎呦,我好像变富了,于是就更愿意花钱消费,这是一种心理上的满足感。</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">反过来,如果房价一直在跌,你看着自己的房子价值缩水,心里肯定慌啊,感觉自己的财富在蒸发。这时候就算银行账户里的存款数字没变,甚至因为工资收入而增加,但因为你感觉账面上的财富减少了,你就会变得特别谨慎,不敢轻易花钱,这就好比你的虚拟资产贬值了,你玩游戏都不想氪金了,现实生活里自然也无紧钱包。</span></span></p><section style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5564814814814815" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100040829" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkx3OmHNEktfxRfDDlxAoiccyxTPH31ZvFqehH264PtE6vHrKgjz74poc8e4RmNWN1lcRy2wwFPomg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">咱们算笔账,全国城镇房产总价值大概</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">400</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿,跌了</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">30%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">,那就是</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">120</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿的账面财富蒸发。假设财富对消费的影响弹性是</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">1%</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">,也就是说财富减少</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">100</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">块钱,消费就减少一块钱。那这</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">120</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿的损失就会导致消费减少</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">1.2</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿。</span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><br /></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这说明房地产价格的波动对整体消费的影响是极其巨大的,远远超出了我们日常看到的菜篮子消费。</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">最后咱们来看一个有点矛盾的现象,大家手里的钱好像越来越多了。数据显示居民储蓄存款从</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">2019</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">年的</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">70</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">1</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">路涨到现在的</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">150</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿以上,这几年每年新增的存款都超过</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">18</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿,今年估计还得超</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">20</span></span></span><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">万亿,这说明老百姓确实是在存钱,而且存的越来越多可问提示,为什么大家普遍感觉没钱不敢花钱呢?</span></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="" style="color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-size:17px;font-family:&quot;mp-quote&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;line-height:1.6;letter-spacing:0.034em;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;"><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这背后的逻辑很大程度上就是我们刚才说的财富效应。房子是很多人最主要的财富,房价下跌相当于他们的财富被悄悄偷走了一部分,而且这笔钱还不好量化,不知道丢哪儿去了。这种不确定性和失落感会让人产生强烈的不安全感,自然就捂紧钱袋子不敢消费了。所以,房地产市场的稳定不仅仅关乎这个行业本身,它关系到整个经济的信心和活力。</span></span></p><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库