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中国万亿城市韧性指数

发布于 2023-04-24

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3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-inline-size: 100%;visibility: visible;outline: none 0px !important;"><br style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="outline: 0px;visibility: visible;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;"><span style="outline: 0px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;">▼</span></section></section></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">上篇文章</span><strong style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">《放出来的水都去哪了?》</strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">从全</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">国宏观角度讨论了钱的流向问题,总量增加并不能代表实力走强,还得</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">看资金来源,借来的是需要还的,不是硬核实力。</span><br /></p><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">如果要洞察一个城市的韧性呢?更不能看总量,需要<span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>看存贷结构关系</strong></span>。</span></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">有的时候总量越大,反而脆弱性越强,韧性越不足,恒大的故事,可以验证这点,大并非强,更不能体现韧性。</span><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>那究竟什么是城市韧性?</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">物理的定义是材料的断裂前吸收能量和进行塑性变形的能力,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">与脆性相反</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">有一本书叫</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>《反脆弱》</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,塔勒布著,讲述的就是这个内容,并以花瓶、乒乓球落地为例,解释什么叫脆弱与反脆弱。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">我认为韧性居于两者之间,不易变形、不易碎,好比一本书落地。一个地区/城市的韧性可以定义为:</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">抵御风险的能力,或者说,面对黑天鹅事件的应变能力。</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">具体风险如地方债务违约、龙头企业暴雷、居民信贷危机等等。用不恰当的例子来比喻,就是疫情封控能忍受的最长时间,有些城市或许只能1周,有些可以1个月,有些可以3个月。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">今天,我们聚焦到一二线核心城市,从城市</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">居民端存贷视角来讨论城市的韧性</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">因为住房消费主要的对象是居民家庭,实际城市的韧性还包括企业、政府等部门。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">本文选取全国24个2022年万亿GDP城市,根据不同城市2021-2022年年度的金融数据。从</span><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;"><strong>存款-贷款-杠杆率-净财富</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">四个角度研究城市的资金情况及韧性指数。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">主要讨论以下4个问题:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>收入不足,谁还有钱存?</strong></span></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>信贷宽松,谁能借到钱?</strong></span></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>预期转弱,谁在加杠杆?</strong></span></p></li><li style="font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>疫情之后,谁手中还有余粮?</strong></span><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></strong></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 48px;">01</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 24px;">哪个城市底子更厚?</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 17px;"><strong>存款增量:北京领跑、无锡最快、泉州垫底</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">首先来看看<strong>全国的一个本外币住户存贷款的增加情况</strong>。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">2022年存款增加17.9万亿,人均贷款增加3.8万亿,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">存款是贷款的4.67倍</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,2022年住户存款比2021年</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">增加81.2%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,而贷款则</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>减少51.6%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,一增一减预期不足体现得很充分。而且,今年的这个趋势还在加速,2023年一季度,住户存款增加</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">9.9万亿</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">元,超过去年全年新增额的一半。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">接下来,我们看看</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>哪个城市的居民最能存钱?</strong></span></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">我们不妨选择人尽皆知的人均存款来作对比,大家都知道北京上海人均20万存款,这次用过去一年的<strong>住户存款增速及人均增量</strong>作比较。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: left;">图1:万亿城市2022年住户存款增速及人均增量</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;margin-bottom: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="315" data-ratio="0.5778275475923852" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbeWgEXVibG3VkajeZlBGNCLEcKnTXVwNQRMjw4Z1OHc9wQjzcaXXfQz0w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="893" style="text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.034em;width: 546px;height: auto;" /></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">可以看到与GDP以及住户存款排序还是有很大的区别:</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">从</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>人均增量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">北京、上海</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">人均增量稳居榜首意料之中,果然最能存钱的人还是在北上,人均增加4万多;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">杭州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">在GDP里排名第9,但在人均增量位列第三,反超深圳仅次于上海,杭州人的钱包也很鼓,藏富于民特征明显;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">除了北上杭深以外,最能存钱的还有</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">无锡、南京、宁波以及南通</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,人均存款增量都超过了广州;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">较为意外的是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>重庆</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,GDP高于广州次于深圳,但增量低于全国水平,与济南、泉州齐平;</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">从</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;">储蓄增速</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">一线城市增速来看,深圳(24.7%)&gt;上海(23.4%)&gt;北京(20.2%)&gt;广州(16.1%),上海比北京高3%;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">增速前三的城市分别是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>无锡25.9%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,杭州25.3%,宁波25.0%;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">全国增速是17.3%,24个万亿GDP城市中仅14个高于全国水平</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">;</span></section></li><li><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">重庆、广州、苏州GDP排名4-6位,增速却低于全国水平,分别为14.5%、16.1%、15.2%。</span></section></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 48px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br /></span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 48px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">02</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 24px;">哪个城市接“水”多?</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);">贷款增量:苏州最多、上海很稳、重庆为负</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">信贷是我们国家货币的主要传导机制,本次选择<strong>住户贷款人均增量</strong>做一个比较:</span></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="text-align: center;letter-spacing: 0.578px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;">图2:万亿城市2022年人均贷款情况</span></section><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="518" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="931" data-ratio="1.7974068071312803" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbeH8WSOzSou1jhjibialibRYyWJ08codIsBKhcyrWRbKGjGju2qBjiaJ6ic3w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="617" style="width: 518px;height: auto;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">从</span><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;">人均贷款</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">杭州、南京、深圳</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">分别以19.8万、17.6万、17.2万位居人均贷款第一梯队,过去多年累积下来,从人均视角看,这3个城市借钱最多。</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">从</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 18px;"><strong>贷款增量</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">苏州、广州、杭州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">三个城市人均多贷款1.5万,为万亿城市贷款增量均值0.78万的2倍多;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">南京、深圳</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">位居第二梯队,人均贷款增加1.29-2.31万元;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">的人均贷款增量仅为0.47万,低于万亿GDP城市均值;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">其中</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">重庆</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">人均贷款增量减少了0.05万,是唯一一个住户贷款下降的城市,从侧面反映出重庆楼市的大跳水。</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 48px;"><br /></span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 48px;">03</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">哪个城市居民杠杆高?</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 17px;"><strong>居民杠杆率:杭州当下最高、广州加的最猛、重庆降的最多</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">本次我们选择用<strong>城市住户贷款/城市GDP</strong>定义居民杠杆率,首先我们看下2022年的情况:</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;">图3:万亿城市2022年居民杠杆率情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbe4tjbp8icWVGKqMmUZJyoQBVUxxJSYz6V4fbOibaMwbohBhK54m2iayGSg/0?wx_fmt=png" data-cropx1="108.76249999999999" data-cropx2="1123.1392857142857" data-cropy1="88.87300026812049" data-cropy2="1064.2541782107428" data-ratio="0.961576354679803" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbewSiaXSTic16bjIvt41p2lpcHk5GP49K7P8zJC3ymNZ43021Rct4jhibMg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1015" style="width: 457px;height: auto;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">可以看到,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>杭州</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">的杠杆率最高,达到130.8%,其次为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">郑州</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">99.7%,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">南京</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">94.8%;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">一线城市来看,深圳(94.1%)&gt;广州(90.3%)&gt;上海(66.6%)&gt;北京(57.1%);</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">全国的居民杠杆率为61.9%,仅有6个城市低于全国水平,分别是无锡(37.8%)、南通(41.6%)、泉州(42.3%)、济南(56.9%)、北京(57.1%)以及青岛(59.3%)。</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">杠杆的高低通常跟城市的特点相关</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,比如人口年轻的城市,住房需求高,贷款相对高,而积累相对少,所以,还可以看下变化情况:</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;">表1:万亿城市2021-2022年杠杆率情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="482" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="481" data-ratio="0.8814814814814815" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbecXnxGVCiaeI21cPyia7KOKOorjqd1iakd5qjicsO8SnicXbJ5b9qdLdtMEw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">可以看到,全国杠杆率变化率为0,但24个核心城市有</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">19个城市为加杠杆</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">、仅5个降杠杆;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">其中,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>广州、郑州、杭州</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">3个为持续高杠杆城市;苏州、东莞等2个工业城市为中杠杆城市+杠杆提升;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">重庆、长沙</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">2个低房价、消费型城市降幅最大,也许是疫情对实体消费冲击最大,居民越保守。</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 48px;">04</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 0.034em;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 24px;">哪个城市盈余多?</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 17px;color: rgb(217, 33, 66);"><strong>人均盈余:南通、无锡多,南京、杭州少</strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">盈余有很多种定义方式,这次我们将(居民存款-居民贷款)/常住人口定义为城市的净盈余,即不考虑资产的情形下,口袋里的钱,可以理解为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>现金流充裕度</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;">图4:万亿城市2022年居民人均财富情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="301" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="301" data-ratio="0.5509259259259259" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbej99uG4ZLibrUxsWHOEt1xG9UqMfIWLwDqxkJSPC0mBql8fHzZ54UeKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="864" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">可以看到财富差距愈加明显,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京遥遥领先人均盈余接近16.0万</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,相当于二、三位城市之和;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>南通、无锡、天津</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">净财富突出,均高于成都,仅次于上海;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一线城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看,北京(16.0万)&gt;上海(9.3万)&gt;广州(0.45万)&gt;深圳(-2.5万);</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">大湾区</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">来看,仅佛山(3.5万)高于全国水平(3.3万),东莞(0.48万)略高于广州(0.45万);</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">深圳、南京、杭州</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">净财富位居万亿GDP城市末位,有8个城市的盈余为负值,欠的钱比存的钱多;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">而</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">杭州</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">的人均财富情况相较不容乐观为-3.8万,这也与杭州的高杠杆有一定的关系。</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 0.034em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">最后,回到我们需要讨论的城市韧性,如何通过数据指标来定义呢?</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 48px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">05</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 24px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">哪个城市韧性强?</span></strong></span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">面对2022年疫情+经济收入下行的冲击,结合当下国内外复杂的经济环境特征考虑,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>2023-2024年城市韧性=2022年存款变多+2022年信贷走强+2023年初杠杆率低+2023年初手有余钱</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">或许有人觉得信贷增加不能代表韧性,我认为在经济环境不好的时候,你能借到钱,或者银行愿意把钱给你,就是一种能力。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">城市居民韧性=存款多*信贷强*杠杆低*有盈余</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,即我认为一个城市的内核实力+多元性决定了城市的韧性。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-align: center;">表2:万亿城市居民韧性情况</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="514" data-backw="546" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="514" data-ratio="0.9403437815975733" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB98CPScPOtNRJLkJySdbepfluTtb5rrzvPl1ys4Q0UMWkjugEEPo1JP4bibEmu4EMDXpdnxR6nZA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="989" style="width: 100%;height: auto;" /></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">具体,我们采用熵值法赋权,综合以上4个指标进行综合定义。得出:</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">北京、上海韧性超强</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,其中北京鹤立鸡群,有人说是因为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">吃皇粮的多</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,当然稳定,他不稳定,还有谁能稳定?貌似挺有道理。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">上海是因其超强的资金吸纳能力,作为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">全国经济中心</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,韧性强不能难理解;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">无锡、南通韧性十足</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,出乎意料地位居第2梯队,源于其过去一年及</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">潜在的爆发力强。</span></strong></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">当下居民杠杆率极低,仅40%左右,同时存款大幅高于贷款,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">财富盈余多</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,居民手中有钱,自然潜在抵御风险能力强;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>南京、杭州风险预警</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,两城存款高,且增量稳定,但伴随着持续的高信贷、杠杆率高和人均贷款已大于存款的情形下,居民手中余粮不足,对应的脆弱性高。</span></p><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">如果中国资产价格受到冲击,那这2个城市的潜在风险最大,即</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>高位下行的概率相对大</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">;</span></p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">长沙、重庆、郑州韧性不足</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,居民底子薄+消费意愿不足,如人均盈余不足,新增贷款有限等,可以理解为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">向上的弹性空间有限</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.6em;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">其他城市就不一一解读了,欢迎各抒己见。</span></p><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 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