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中国家庭住房财富状况

发布于 2023-04-07

<section data-role="outer" label="Powered by 135editor.com" style="margin-bottom: 0px;white-space: normal;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 1px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;justify-content: flex-end;line-height: 1.5em;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;width: 562px;vertical-align: top;height: auto;border-width: 0px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;text-align: justify;font-family: Optima-Regular, PingFangTC-light;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.31203703703703706" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB7H7mn59Kat87CicjGmWQmTnQ7Ix0JKHnqibQHrM2XZnrunqRiajTWyibbYia8QxrILu0fWzWBuiaPalQ/640?wx_fmt=png" 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border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(62, 62, 62);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section style="text-align: justify;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;width: 89.3594px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="margin-top: 10px;justify-content: center;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;display: inline-block;vertical-align: top;overflow: hidden;height: 20px;width: 20px;background-color: rgb(160, 160, 160);border-width: 3px;border-radius: 100%;border-style: none;border-color: rgb(227, 125, 106);box-shadow: rgb(247, 212, 114) 0px 0px 0px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><section style="text-align: justify;font-size: 30px;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><p style="cursor: text;max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: right;cursor: text;font-size: 18px;letter-spacing: -1px;caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);max-width: 100%;max-inline-size: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;"><br /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">▼</span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;text-align: center;max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></section></section></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">根据央行的调查数据,我国城镇居民家庭的实物资产中,</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 18px;"><strong>74.2%</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">为住房资产,金融资产占比较低,仅为20.4%。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我国城镇居民家庭有一套住房的家庭占比为58.4%,有两套住房的占比为31.0%,有三套及以上住房的占比为10.5%,户均拥有住房</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">1.5套</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。<br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">评估家庭财富水平的核心指标不是收入或存款,而是住房价值</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">接下来,采用七普的人口住房数据+二手房实时挂牌数据,计算全国各大城市的住房资产价值及人均资产价值。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">01</span></strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="font-size: 20px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="font-size: 24px;">@全国住房总货值</strong></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>核心问题:全国商品房到底值多少钱?</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">计算公式:家庭拥有商品住房户数*套均总价*假设1.5套/户(考虑多套住房的情况)</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在我们统计的310个样本城市中,全国各城市家庭总户数4.54亿户,全国各城市家庭套均总价109万元/套。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">通过分别统计全国310城市,计算结果加总,商品住房总货值为</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">407万亿</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">按照过去20年商品住房/商品房的销售额比例85.24%换算,得出全国商品住房总货值为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>477万亿</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;若再加上到2021-2022年新增的31万亿商品房销售额,那当前全国商品房货值为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>508万亿</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><p style="margin: 24px 16px 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">508万亿,是个什么量级的数据呢?</span></strong></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2022年全国生产总值120万亿的4.23倍。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">2023年2月份咱们居民存款是128.2万亿,房屋价值是存款的3.97倍。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">住房资产的稳定性极其重要</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,尽管这两年房地产市场经历的巨大的波动,但主要还是企业端口的现金流危机,市场端口的销量下滑、而非价格。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们可以看到2022年全国市场情况是销售额、销售面积同比下降的幅度是基本同步的(24%-27%),价格基本稳定。</span><br /></section><section style="margin: 24px 16px 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><strong>4.23倍、3.97倍,是高还是低?</strong>&nbsp; </span><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape></section><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="554" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="374" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.675" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIynia59gLTrNtjQvw675CTFsicZiajibr5iaSEtNUooibZkroYvTak30n2mfYw0zGSWlZx8TeRH3by5xTCg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 554px;height: 374px;" /></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们跟美国比较一下看看,根据2021年美国国家房地产经纪商协会的数据,美国住房总价值约为37.5万亿美元,美国2021年GDP 23.03万亿美元,美国居民存款总额为15.04万亿美元,倍数分别是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">1.60倍、2.46倍</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">美国的住房比值不到中国的一半,可以说</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>中国的住房资产货值是相对高的</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">02</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; </span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 24px;">@城市住房总货值</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">具体到不同城市,我们制作一张表格,方便大家查阅所在及关注的城市,命名仅为便于大家理解。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从住房资产总量角度,各个城市属于几线城市,同日常所见的GDP排名差距会很大,可以理解为</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>城市居民总财富排名</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">(因为住房是家庭财富的最主要组成部分)。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5425925925925926" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIynia59gLTrNtjQvw675CTFssEPjsVgAeoSalqP7AlgS2ibweZu3TnQHGr1Hzklks8jAJVVX2Az7m5w/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 296px;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以TOP20为例,看下具体的数值及全国占比,可以发现,相比GDP城市增加值总产出,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">居民财富聚集在核心城市的现象更加突出</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上海、北京为例,2022年GDP分别为4.46、4.16万亿,占全国GDP比重仅3.72%、3.47%;</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-indent: 0em;text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">但上海住房价值高达59.7万亿,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">单城占比14.6%</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,高出GDP10.88%;</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">反观广州、深圳,只有15.7万亿、12.8万亿。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">所以,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">上海、北京才是全国真正的吸金城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,真正资产沉淀池,广州、深圳还差一大截。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">用我司郑老板的比喻,1个上海=2个深圳+2个广州=3.5个苹果=20个腾讯。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这个从日常娱乐八卦吃瓜也可以看出,80%的明星都会选择这两个城市定居。&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="442" data-ratio="0.8101851851851852" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIynia59gLTrNtjQvw675CTFsGnGNEBQ0oh2AUeqHhpcuUwgIIfQyG3WVKXmCicEXV9OjRnFdJ2GicTAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 443px;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">除此之外,还有一些城市比较特殊,比如</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">重庆</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">主要是因其超大规模性,3000多万人口,基本就是一个小体量省份。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">杭州</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">虽然住房单价比深圳低,但商品房比例率高且多,排名接近深圳。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">厦门</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">因其高房价挤进20强,东北</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">沈阳</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">出人意料地排在19位。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 48px;">03</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong><span style="font-size: 24px;">@人均住房资产</span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">上面有说到,个别城市可能因其规模优势,挤进了全国20强,我们考虑城市人口数,来看下全国城市的人均住房资产排序表:</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="296" data-ratio="0.5685185185185185" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIynia59gLTrNtjQvw675CTFso0EgtgBfkVlwjPYL0jibgHianHBg2twdQcUYarAeo7NibmcabGabLUjKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 311px;" /></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">重点说下人均同总量排名的变化,有哪些城市变化大:</span></section><p style="margin: 24px 16px 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>前8强:</strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">南京、杭州、厦门、青岛排名上升;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">广州、深圳</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">下降,跟2 个城市商品房比例低关系大,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>以城中村为主</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">其中</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">厦门</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">上升幅度最大,从18名提升至第6位,它就是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>福建人的上海与北京</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 24px 16px 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>第9-28位:</strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">珠海、三亚、舟山</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,提升最大,无一例外都是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">海滨城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,三亚的文旅属性最强,而舟山还在于其规模体量较小;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">常州、扬州</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">也表现突出,估计是得益其</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">独特产业禀赋及宜居的属性</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,相比珠三角,留下来置业的人群更多;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">降幅最大的是</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>重庆、成都</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,这两个西部城市虽然发展快,平均而言,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">人均城市水平还是不高</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin: 24px 16px 16px;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong>第29-53位:</strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">东营</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">提升了58位,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">鄂尔多斯</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">提升50位,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>一个炼油的、一个挖矿的</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>郑州</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">下降了15位,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">东莞</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">下降11位,都是年轻人口多,本质都是一群人,从事外贸加工,劳动密集型聚集,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>农村青壮年人口占比高</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">同理,我们可以看下全国TOP20城的具体数据:&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="546" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="447" data-ratio="0.8194444444444444" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIynia59gLTrNtjQvw675CTFsLr9q4ia650HtGTknLMgb8IWOOXc83iaQWS2FTmvZZFkEyyIxrqBsdWhQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 546px;height: 448px;" /></p><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">可以看到:</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">上海、北京依然遥遥领先,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">上海人的住房财富水平为全国平均水平的13.1倍</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">(全国城市平均值是</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">18.23万/人</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">),达到240万。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、</span></strong></span><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">南京、杭州人均住房价值也达到了百万级水平</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;">,这就好理解了,为何江浙地区的文旅发展要远超珠三角了,关键的品质好很多,还有后面的苏锡常,都排到了全国20强。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">深圳同青岛、天津</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">相当</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,很多人都不理解,我认为这是因为深圳是以外来人口为主,都是空口袋来,准备来搞钱的,起初没什么财富。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">好听的话叫做从渔村到魔幻大都市,不好听地说,骨子里是屌丝之城,</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">很多有千万住房的人,都是从城中村奋斗出来的</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;">莞佛也有类似的特征,所以20位之前就找不到身影了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">这几年发展趋势比较好的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">合肥、成都,分别位居19、23位</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">,拉长时间周期5-8年看,是典型的</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从蓝领爬上来的城市,高新制造带活城市</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">清晰地记得2014-2015年分析成都市场,典型区域就是三大刚需聚集地(大面、大丰、华阳),全是单价6000元、面积60-80平的刚刚需产品。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">现在大家讨论成都都是南部的高端住区了,动不动就是500万+,主流人群也变成了类似“中国电科”这类高级打工人了。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">以上就是本次讨论的一些话题和内容,核心结论有五个:</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>1.中国住房总货值高达<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">508万亿</span>,远超美国,资产价格稳定性极其重要;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>2.上海、北京才是全国真正的吸金城市,吸纳了全国<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">24.6%</span>的财富;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>3.长三角藏富于民文旅突出,6大中心城市人均住房价值高达<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">72.6万/人</span>;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>4.珠三角仍需大力城市更新,4大核心城市人均住房价值仅<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">54.2万/人</span>;</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 17px;"><strong>5.成渝总量突出(<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第4名、第9名</span>)、人均不足(<span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">第23名、第25名</span>)。</strong></span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="margin-bottom: 0px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 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255);background-color: rgb(136, 136, 136);box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">- 小军读城系列持续更新中&nbsp;-</span><br data-filtered="filtered" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" /></section><section style="margin: 5px 8px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);line-height: 2em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247501240&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=9be78e8d6cf412ee6d8fc8a3b50a7725&amp;chksm=9756bf9ca021368affa8145323b472c8db160804658f95227e66f4e02813a30ef3bfc0628d97&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="城市价值评估" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" wah-hotarea="click" hasload="1" style="outline: 0px;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);cursor: pointer;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">城市价值评估</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIxMTUxMzE2Mw==&amp;mid=2247502221&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=482a963668925980a37994a5ed71ca78&amp;chksm=9756b3a9a0213abf8fc9fe023e2b736039dcb4ffd07ca723b45b4a47d6b304c5b7bf948ad4d7&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="板块价值识别" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2" 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12px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: PingFangTC-Light;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">b站</span></p></section></section></section></section></section><section style="max-width: 100%;min-height: 1em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><section data-role="layout" style="flex-flow: row nowrap;display: flex;word-break: break-all;"><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="50" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="50" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIycoMZjGF8RrRlGEzqzackrSSVqK5SzNApiaN9vmWpNcEuzuMInkGCcu5SiaAn2iba30oI1cPAeJVnqw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;height: 50px;" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="18" data-backw="18" data-cropselx1="1" data-cropselx2="103" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="104" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIy3kArrxGazyPIK26bO7zZfQibibfZGIkjRNwTHwQ4KNp3zu2sgMcS5VLib1OHNDwOibjnPpUoribI5IcQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section><section data-role="layout" data-width="20%" style="box-sizing: border-box;width: 115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="1.0044247787610618" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIzdKK1pWxDY25IjWC6hzyuZPClD30iaLtAVGt7UszT4kJMlymjsJz0yLneTFRIJS1jvpr56X0OGLrQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="226" data-width="50px" height="71" style="box-sizing: 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115.594px;"><section data-role="layout-inner"><section data-role="paragraph"><p style="text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="13" data-backw="13" data-cropselx1="0" data-cropselx2="69" data-cropsely1="0" data-cropsely2="69" data-ratio="1" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIwaUyIuHQngl5c5PD5uQEXrh3UfLLLmbNNIYHsl0uM1fFRJCOicUgwgiaAoBNbUmeBiahGEFZBm9uXAw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="300" data-width="50px" style="box-sizing: border-box;z-index: -1;cursor: pointer;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);caret-color: rgb(255, 0, 0);width: 50px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;max-inline-size: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;outline: none 0px !important;visibility: visible !important;" width="50px" /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica 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16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br /></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">感谢你的每一个分享 | 点赞 | 在看</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(89, 89, 89);letter-spacing: 1.5px;text-align: center;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0.2px;font-size: 12px;font-family: 微软雅黑, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">SPECIAL THANKS</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: right;line-height: 1.75em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="max-width: 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