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中国房地产市场:情绪疲软与分化

发布于 2025-06-18

<p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;"></span></span></p><section class="channels_iframe_wrp custom_select_card_wrp"><mp-common-videosnap class="js_uneditable custom_select_card channels_iframe videosnap_video_iframe mp_common_widget" data-type="video" data-id="export/UzFfAgtgekIEAQAAAAAAa2MzgkRK1wAAAAstQy6ubaLX4KHWvLEZgBPE-oJ4E2IfT4WIzNPgMIso14DnjiqF-4XX0iu-dVN7" data-url="https://findermp.video.qq.com/251/20304/stodownload?encfilekey=rjD5jyTuFrIpZ2ibE8T7YmwgiahniaXswqzWBUzCfSnAIibHcrmXqJicNg2fFbNkicQ3w8GLeokS9ewNicD1sVhsuicbJGLVZXq6Rt5ulbbibUE49SwKmlBXiadXnILw&amp;token=AxricY7RBHdXFsE8fEy6UIQgGEdDwfgPsZ6NkCoIhHUO5Of4mKq5icceUlhiaiathzsr9icd7JmgK69LVoTqcEu7heMwgISrgvpQtD9GX3DgVlrgjTJFz6unvPmFPR9PvbIvy7KADqicia5rRyibf93EG0l8zTgPGfotaQ1b3oib8lwm81ibE&amp;idx=1&amp;hy=SH&amp;m=&amp;scene=2&amp;uzid=1" data-headimgurl="http://wx.qlogo.cn/finderhead/OU2rqvx645smeBtlHNveXE6XcLXeodjdXdAlK6Hdq7LzSlMV3KAZAVRHEwMblpsOqdXNDRvjZoc/0" data-nickname="禾略" data-username="v2_060000231003b20faec8c4e18d10cbd6c80dee34b07736396e416723fd5650a5715e7448b841@finder" data-desc="中国房地产市场:情绪疲软与分化

" data-mediatype="4" data-width="1920" data-height="1080" data-nonceid="" data-parentwidth="344"></mp-common-videosnap></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span style="font-size: 15px;background-color: transparent;caret-color: var(--weui-BRAND);letter-spacing: 0.034em;">我们来看一下最新的中国房地产市场调查结果。</span><br /></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">核心发现是,尽管整体情绪依然疲软,但市场内部的分化趋势正在显现,尤其是一线城市与二三线城市的走势明显不同。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562037037037037" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039499" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasZYFW92CcWcQwPRnZQUvW56vkloClOl65y7p8lzKMnrZhvx82DuBwUg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">首先看购房意愿。数据显示,无论是计划两年内购买还是更长远的计划,比例都较去年九月有所下降,而明确表示不打算买房的人群比例更是达到了历史最高点,接近百分之五十。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这说明整体市场信心在减弱。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">但请注意,这种降温并非均匀分布。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">一线城市购房意愿相对稳定,甚至可以说企稳,而二三线城市则面临更大的压力,购房意愿持续下滑。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">同时,租房意愿也达到了历史新高,超过七成的受访者认为租房比买房更划算,这反映了市场对房价预期的普遍悲观。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">此外,业主出售意愿也在同步下降,这可能意味着市场流动性进一步收紧。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5666666666666667" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039500" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasvib8viaZyAZSuyhI57q8JQicg5svjohCXdR6pGKMW09gsWyk8LoGNKRGQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">刚才提到的分化,在库存、价格和销售数据上体现得淋漓尽致。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">看这张图,库存销售比,也就是去化周期,一线城市明显低于二三线城市,这意味着一线市场的库存压力相对较小。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">再看价格,自去年四季度以来,一线城市房价开始企稳回升,而二三线城市则持续下跌。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">销售方面,同样是一线城市回暖,二三线城市则持续低迷。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这种背离现象非常清晰地表明,当前中国房地产市场并非铁板一块,而是呈现出明显的结构性特征,不同层级城市面临的挑战和机遇截然不同。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5648148148148148" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039501" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasRFeXywJ6W8gVAQ3LDiby5DJYFt7sX2Yy9nf0ye0Opw77su5fC9TZ5Sg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5657407407407408" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039502" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasCMMWxsscsZwfOoibX5Gn9IObsbgNxX7WA4p2Ywy9JVxUJV4wQGyBa7g/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">面对市场的疲软,政府自2022年以来持续推出宽松政策,尤其是在2024年,力度空前。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">包括大幅降低房贷利率、首付比例,放松限购,以及允许地方政府使用专项债来支持房企去库存等。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这些政策确实产生了一定的效果,比如调查显示,过去六个月里,降低房贷利率、降低首付要求和房价下跌本身,被认为是提振信心的最重要因素。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">然而,我们也要看到,政策效果似乎有边际递减的趋势。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">虽然房贷利率已经降至历史低位,但市场信心的恢复仍然缓慢,出售意愿的温和化也仅是小幅改善。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这说明,单纯的政策刺激可能不足以扭转局面,需要更精准的发力点。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5648148148148148" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039503" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKcias6EaJFc9W84SzheGPzicBgBPgiamze7YuDwBogfib72SgQqLsiaTovq1vVg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5648148148148148" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039504" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasSNmodu47QkPhmL6eIFDP3kv33ibKjibeDFc0JgQ2ROibuo1uCBbkGzQgw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">接下来我们关注大家最关心的房价预期。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">调查结果显示,高达百分之四十二的受访者预计未来一年内房价还会继续下跌,这个比例和去年九月相当,远高于预期上涨的比例。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这表明,市场对房价下行的担忧依然普遍存在。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">具体来看,大部分预期下跌的人认为跌幅不会太大,集中在百分之十到百分之二十之间。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">但值得注意的是,对于房价何时触底,大家的看法非常分散,没有形成明确的共识。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这种持续的、不确定的下跌预期,无疑会进一步加剧市场的悲观情绪,抑制购房需求。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5675925925925925" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039505" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciastSibKX5wqfc1Zlqtk972AYQOWPY3JaIU7iaJlUJSgdPe8qZWWa8BgGmA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5638888888888889" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039506" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasGgUx00QJQddPia9icElib39BuXu10OLLmHB0Q0H0NGone38qZohbf5RvQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">房价预期的低迷直接导致了负财富效应的显现。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">调查显示,近一半的受访者,也就是百分之四十七,表示他们现在的房子价值低于买入时的价格,这意味着他们承受了纸面亏损。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这个比例相比去年九月的百分之二十九,以及四月份的百分之十七,显著上升。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">而且,这种亏损在二三线城市更为普遍,只有少数一线城市居民还能保持微弱的盈利。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">考虑到房产在中国家庭资产中占比高达百分之五十到百分之六十,这种大规模的财富缩水,对消费者信心和消费意愿的打击是巨大的。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">它就像一个无形的紧箍咒,让许多人不敢轻易花钱,从而影响整体经济活力。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039507" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasuLficDllRO5umDtNhmYpEACtI8YAnvqgibOjnljBbKYiadiaGWBqC4WlDQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">虽然房贷利率大幅下降,百分之七十五的受访者表示感受到了,但实际的负担减轻情况并不乐观。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">一方面,提前还款的意愿并没有明显增加,说明大家对未来收入增长的信心不足。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">另一方面,由于房价下跌,平均负债率,也就是贷款占房产价值的比例,反而有所上升。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">更重要的是,收入增长预期在减弱,实际收入增长也放缓了。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这意味着,即使房贷利率降低了,但因为收入跟不上,或者房价下跌导致的负债增加,房贷支出占收入的比重,也就是月供收入比,仍然维持在较高水平。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这种收支矛盾的加剧,使得购房者,尤其是刚需购房者,依然感到压力山大。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039508" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasHEqUrmiaw14vgFe1IGA7yoq9LwuJco9EZljbj8jAuuReyMZMpztnoyQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100039509" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasAIJfvaly761ysTTrFibxaLtPSQuVZ3v9t6Y2fPVUePBBiazPQkabMCNQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">烂尾楼”问题一直是购房者的心头大患。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这次调查再次印证了这一点。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">潜在购房者中,选择购买现房的比例飙升至百分之七十一,而愿意购买期房的只剩下百分之九,这是自2022年8月开始调查以来的最低值。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这反映出购房者对项目能否顺利交付的极度担忧。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">事实上,担心项目停工延期依然是拖累市场信心的主要因素之一,占比百分之二十六。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">虽然政策层面也在讨论推动预售制向现售制转变,但目前来看,市场对期房的信任度已经降至冰点。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这也解释了为什么期房销售占比从2020年的超过百分之九十,大幅下降到现在的百分之六十五到七十左右。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">解决烂尾问题,保障项目交付,是重建市场信心的关键一步。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100039511" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciaspwCuwEW4nP0icH1otwncibtHmPiazOiclMIvhibxgpgg4Mygy6UZxWn0Hvg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100039510" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasNJAeasr1Xc78hl7xMGGQz3z5Dp77NxDLHYw9m4K3fFUxVSpaeX8CQQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">那么,到底什么才能真正提振市场信心呢?</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">调查给出了明确的答案。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">受访者认为,工资没有上涨、经济增长放缓、房价继续下跌、房贷利率上升等因素是信心不足的主要原因。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">反过来,能提振信心的因素包括:更快的经济增长、工作晋升或工资增加、更好的房屋交付、库存减少、更低的首付要求等。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">然而,一个令人担忧的信号是,受访者对未来收入增长的预期变得更加悲观,净预期增长比例下降了。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这无疑给信心提振带来了更大的挑战。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">因此,我们认为,要有效提振市场,必须多管齐下:</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">一是加大促增长、稳就业的政策力度,让老百姓看到实实在在的收入增长;</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">二是加速推进房屋交付,解决烂尾问题;</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">三是下大力气解决库存积压问题,打通销售链条;</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">四是继续提供必要的融资支持,帮助房企和购房者渡过难关。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562962962962963" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039512" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasqlfyib06q8aEpPBnuMiaQWUtuDvsm9UeNicAbV19lKYgYeW2wOjHprc3Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100039513" data-ratio="0.562037037037037" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasxoTUn8ibMomtLxKk2fyQaS8oGhhCpScvoibpuwLPlTZwXhCtLWtoKRtw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">综合来看,我们判断,2025年中国房地产市场的下行趋势还将延续,但降幅可能会比2024年有所收窄。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">这主要是因为前期的政策刺激和市场自发调整已经产生了一定效果,但同时,市场面临的挑战依然严峻,特别是烂尾问题和库存压力,已经成为新的信心拖累因素。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">因此,我们预计,2025年房地产销售、新开工面积和投资活动的降幅将小于2024年。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 15px;">但这并不意味着可以掉以轻心,市场下行压力依然存在,需要持续的政策支持,特别是要解决好库存去化这个关键瓶颈,并为开发商和购房者提供必要的融资支持。</span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5611111111111111" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" data-imgfileid="100039514" style="height: auto !important;" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwmaicBpiaAIoETpy7qRhjKciasNg7B0PcjDduVsUVz88RiaPuckicI1gNYng4JFc4bF17OR49KCUzlYic6g/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100039515" data-ratio="0.5666666666666667" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" type="block" style="height: auto !important;" 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