中国消费市场大裂变：新消费与旧消费的平行宇宙

<p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">在中国经济增速放缓的大背景下，消费市场正在经历一场深刻的结构性变革。美银证券最新发布的《中国消费(H/A股)：停滞中的失衡——新消费与旧消费》研究报告揭示了一个"平行宇宙"般的市场图景：一边是传统消费品牌的增长乏力，另一边是新消费品牌的爆发式增长。本文将带您深入解析这一现象背后的三大宏观主题、六大消费行为模式和五大新消费篮子。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">一、失衡的消费宇宙：三大结构性矛盾</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">中国消费市场正面临三个深层次的</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">结构性失衡</span></strong><span leaf="">，这些失衡构成了新消费崛起、旧消费停滞的宏观背景。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">第一个失衡</span></strong><span leaf="">是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">供给与需求的错配</span></strong><span leaf="">。中国作为"世界工厂"，商品供给已经高度同质化，消费者面临的选择过剩反而抬高了他们的满足阈值。根据马斯洛需求层次理论，当基本生理和安全需求被满足后，消费者开始追求更高层次的情感价值（如归属感、尊重和自我实现）。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWshibMpzAHKL4xpujia0KHHjunhEs1ZKHJBrRf3AUWBcW1UudYdkNLNpQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.3962962962962963" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042543" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">第二个失衡</span></strong><span leaf="">是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">渠道与媒介的碎片化</span></strong><span leaf="">。电商、移动互联网和社交媒体的兴起彻底重构了供需之间的连接方式，导致媒体去中心化、信息过载和触点分散。企业发现，传统的渠道投入和媒体投放越来越难以获得预期回报，形成了"企业想接触消费者的地方不是消费者去的地方，企业想传达的信息不是消费者关心的内容"的尴尬局面。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWPNO3qIXghzMd5JOn1jDP6j7icto84AUz8hmIsicichEIhUKLSrFCIGAtw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6591375770020534" data-type="png" data-w="487" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042540" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">第三个失衡</span></strong><span leaf="">是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">预期与现实的落差</span></strong><span leaf="">。新一代中国消费者成长于中国经济高速发展期，对未来的预期普遍较高。但疫情创伤和高企的青年失业率（2025年6月仍达14.5%）形成了强烈反差，催生了寻求情感慰藉的消费需求。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWtfAPSMfl5AL1eicDAzZSlYp0b9tG6QC5TOzvnsqMSBia8YnjibQfrklew/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6498993963782697" data-type="png" data-w="497" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042542" /></section><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">二、Z世代的消费密码：六大行为模式</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">在上述宏观背景下，中国消费者特别是年轻群体展现出六大鲜明的行为特征：</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">1. 情感价值的极致追求</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">在压力山大的社会中，消费者尤其是年轻人通过"多巴胺消费"获取即时快乐。从泡泡玛特的盲盒到把芒果核当宠物养，这些看似匪夷所思的行为背后，是消费者对抗焦虑的情感出口。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWXQxicia59R6ZibfZ3TmJwF74O12eoTWTHYVycn1bW0T2aQparDMEEIqhw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5919540229885057" data-type="png" data-w="696" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042544" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2. 即时满足与碎片化快乐</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">短视频、直播等媒介形态培养了消费者对即时反馈的依赖。年轻一代越来越难以接受延迟满足，转而将大目标拆解为小任务，通过不断获得"颗粒状多巴胺"维持动力。这种趋势甚至重塑了年轻人的恋爱观，"纳米恋爱"（超短期关系）、虚拟恋爱游戏等新型关系模式兴起。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">3. IP内容与亚文化圈层</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">IP成为年轻人心理投射和社会交往的媒介。从动漫、游戏到耽美文学，各种亚文化圈层通过社交媒体的连接形成强大的消费社群。泡泡玛特Labubu的全球成功就是亚文化主流化的典型案例。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWznGo7lHA02WhxpVxFLEiaGblQJIHRtR6JS5qo2ELzIbiaiaTCriaymLArg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6504065040650406" data-type="png" data-w="492" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042541" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">4. 她经济的全面崛起</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">女性消费者正以前所未有的力度重塑消费叙事。低生育率和婚姻率让女性将更多资源投向自我需求，形成了注重情感价值、热衷社群分享、追求性价比的消费特征。值得关注的是，"性别模糊化"趋势也在加强，男性消费者开始接受传统意义上的"女性化"产品。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">5. 品牌祛魅与叙事重构</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">信息透明化打破了品牌溢价的神话。在媒介碎片化时代，品牌讲故事的逻辑发生了根本变化——一个事件如果能切中社会情绪（如健康焦虑、反富豪情绪等），就能通过用户生成内容(UGC)和算法推荐形成病毒式传播。最近的"娃哈哈vs农夫山泉"事件就是典型案例。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">6. 升级与降级的辩证统一</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">消费升级与降级并非绝对对立，关键在于产品是否提供足够的功能或情感价值。拼多多的成功既是一二线城市的消费降级，也是下沉市场的消费升级。而老铺黄金的崛起，则是将奢侈品珠宝中的品牌溢价替换为具有保值功能的黄金，形成了一种特殊的"降级式升级"。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWQUXjnFZmbiafakTdwqKmQOriajboFictZCxjzlZgckrNiad6yogJAhS1Qw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7063829787234043" data-type="png" data-w="470" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042547" /></section><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">三、新消费的五大投资篮子</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">基于上述消费行为变迁，美银证券提炼出新消费赛道的五大投资方向：</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">1. 情感价值篮子</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">泡泡玛特通过盲盒机制和社群运营，将玩具转化为情感载体和社交货币。演唱会经济的火爆同样源于粉丝为面对面互动和情感共鸣支付溢价。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWdAibKRowg2Tj2U7kNOUbdwqaLyz7NcxNqpUD1cvpkIicQmTAtjgvzZTw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7183673469387755" data-type="png" data-w="490" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042546" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2. 健康养生篮子</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">后疫情时代，健康意识推动无糖茶、户外运动等品类快速增长。农夫山泉东方树叶无糖茶在2020-2024年实现了53%的年复合增长率，而安踏旗下的户外品牌Descente和Kolon在2024年获得了超50%的收入增长。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">3. 成瘾性篮子</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">咖啡、能量饮料等具有成瘾属性的品类展现强大韧性。东鹏特饮以"同样的品质，一半的价格"策略，从红牛手中夺取市场份额；瑞幸通过生椰拿铁等爆品和联名营销，牢牢抓住年轻消费者的心智。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">4. 极致性价比篮子</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">蜜雪冰城和东鹏特饮代表了一种精明消费趋势——消费者不愿降低生活品质，但追求用一半的价格获得同等体验。蜜雪冰城的"雪王"IP通过自嘲文化成为年轻人对抗高物价的精神符号。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">5. 新渠道篮子</span></strong><span leaf=""><br /></span><span leaf="">渠道变革呈现多方向裂变：线下向会员店(Sam's)、零食折扣店(零食很忙)、即时零售(美团闪购)迁移；线上则向社交电商(抖音)和价值导向平台(拼多多)集中。三得利啤酒与美团闪购的战略合作，以及盐津铺子提高零食折扣店渠道占比，都是传统品牌适应新渠道的典型案例。</span></p><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">四、新旧消费的攻守道</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">旧消费的自我革命</span></strong><span leaf="">主要体现在三个方面：</span></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">产品创新</span></strong><span leaf="">：如农夫山泉通过东方树叶无糖茶突破增长天花板，安踏通过收购Descente等户外品牌抓住健康潮流。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">品牌年轻化</span></strong><span leaf="">：蜜雪冰城通过"雪王"IP和用户生成内容打造草根文化符号；肯德基"疯狂星期四"文学成为Z世代社交货币。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">3.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">渠道重构</span></strong><span leaf="">：华润啤酒与美团闪购合作开发定制产品；盐津铺子提高零食折扣店销售占比至15%。</span></span></li></ol><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">新消费的三大陷阱</span></strong><span leaf="">同样不容忽视：</span></p><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">规模瓶颈</span></strong><span leaf="">：情感价值和亚文化天然具有小众属性，过度主流化可能稀释核心用户认同。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">生命周期</span></strong><span leaf="">：年轻消费者兴趣转换快，泡泡玛特通过全球化布局不同发展阶段的市场来延长产品生命周期。</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);min-width: 13px;"><span leaf="">3.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">监管风险</span></strong><span leaf="">：盲盒可能涉及赌博争议，二手市场价格剧烈波动可能引发社会关注。</span></span></li></ol><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">五、资本市场的选择与思考</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">2025年上半年，新消费成为港股市场的明星板块，泡泡玛特、老铺黄金等公司股价平均上涨70%，而旧消费板块基本持平。这种分化反映了在宏观疲软背景下，资金对稀缺增长标的的追逐。</span></p><section nodeleaf=""><img data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnpYnrBRibrsodg2RkeaaBoWg7dyrWG04U8IoICI8ttm29y0FrJIzFVelkF3Xw7BASpNMzR6boloDQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7111553784860558" data-type="png" data-w="502" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;max-width: 360px;border-radius: 4px;min-width: auto;min-height: auto;max-height: 320px;cursor: pointer;display: block;object-fit: cover;height: auto;" data-imgfileid="100042545" /></section><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">美银证券建议投资者保持选择性关注：</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">新消费</span></strong><span leaf="">：泡泡玛特(9992.HK，目标价370港元)、老铺黄金(6181.HK，目标价958港元)</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">融合新元素的旧消费</span></strong><span leaf="">：毛戈平(1318.HK，目标价125港元)、东鹏饮料(605499.SH，目标340元人民币)、农夫山泉(9633.HK，目标50港元)</span></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown,#000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">谨慎看待</span></strong><span leaf="">：蜜雪冰城(2097.HK，减持评级，目标价465港元)</span></span></li></ul><h2 style="margin: 22px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 600 !important;font-size: 20px;line-height: 1.25;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);"><span leaf="">结语：在失衡中寻找平衡</span></h2><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">中国消费市场的"平行宇宙"状态仍将持续。对投资者而言，关键不是简单划分新旧，而是识别那些能够持续适应消费变迁的企业能力——无论是传统品牌的自我革新，还是新消费品牌突破增长陷阱。在这个供给过剩、需求分化、渠道碎片化的时代，唯有深刻理解消费者情感需求和行为变迁的企业，才能穿越周期，持续增长。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">未来已来，只是分布不均。新消费代表的不仅是产品创新，更是一整套关于情感价值、圈层认同和即时满足的新消费伦理。而旧消费的自我革命也证明，传统与创新之间，本就没有不可逾越的界限。在这个意义上，消费市场的"平行宇宙"终将在更高维度上实现统一。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>