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中国金融股投资策略:流动性盛宴还能持续多久?

发布于 2025-09-03

<p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">近期中国股市的上涨行情引发市场广泛关注,尤其是金融板块表现抢眼。本文将深入分析当前市场上涨的驱动因素,评估流动性行情的可持续性,并为投资者提供银行和券商板块的精选投资策略。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">一、当前市场上涨的核心驱动力</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">(图1显示超额流动性占GDP比例从2023年三季度的9.1%升至2025年二季度的12.6%)</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">本轮A股上涨主要由两大因素推动:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">资产配置轮动</span></strong><span leaf="">和</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">超额流动性增加</span></strong><span leaf="">。与2015年杠杆牛不同,当前市场杠杆水平仍处于合理区间:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">融资余额占A股流通市值比例仅为2.3%,远低于2015年峰值时的8%</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">融资买入额占日均交易额比例约11%,2015年峰值时接近30%</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">与此同时,10年期国债收益率年初至今上升9.4个基点,而2024年同期下降88.5个基点,显示债券市场上涨暂歇,促使混合型基金和保险公司增加股票配置。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">二、流动性行情还能走多远?</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">(当前水平远低于历史峰值)</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">我们认为当前行情尚未见顶,主要基于以下判断:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">估值仍具吸引力</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:沪深300指数TTM市盈率15.6倍,与2016年以来的中位数15.4倍基本持平</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">杠杆水平可控</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:市场杠杆远未达到危险水平</span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">潜在增量资金可观</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:预计未来三年资产配置轮动可能为股市带来14万亿元新增流动性,相当于可流通市值的16%</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ol><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">不过需要警惕的是,如果宏观经济与股市表现差距持续扩大,政策干预降温市场情绪的风险将上升。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">三、券商板块:流动性盛宴的直接受益者</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">券商是本轮流动性行情的直接受益者:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">A股日均成交额从6月的1.34万亿元升至8月的2.07万亿元</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">融资余额在8月超过2.1万亿元,创2015年6月以来新高</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">我们看好以下券商:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">中金公司(H股)</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:港股IPO流动性的最佳代表,权益投资敞口较高</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">东方财富</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:更侧重零售经纪业务,零售活动持续改善将使其受益更多</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">华泰证券(A/H股)</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:估值具有吸引力,IPO市场份额增长显著</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ol><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">四、银行股:高股息策略仍具吸引力</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">(即使经过股价上涨,银行股息率仍具竞争力)</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">高股息银行股的行情尚未结束,原因有二:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">股息率优势明显</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:尽管沪深300银行指数自2023年底以来上涨50%,但其股息率仍显著高于理财产品、银行存款和10年期国债收益率</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">替代"类固收"需求</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:影子银行资产规模已从2017年峰值时的38.2万亿元缩减至2025年上半年的17.7万亿元,高股息股票成为新的"类固收"替代品</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ol><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">我们预计保险公司等收益追求者将继续增加银行股配置,特别是在四季度,高股息股票可能重拾动能。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h3 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">银行股上行空间测算</span></span></h3><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">假设股息利差(股息率减去10年期国债收益率)压缩至200个基点(2000年以来CPI均值约2%),考虑南下投资者20%股息税和国债利息收入6%增值税后:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">对南下公募基金</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:H股银行平均有约10%上行空间,工行(H股)潜力最大(23%)</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">对保险公司</span></strong><section><span leaf="">(免征股息税):H股银行平均有35%上行空间</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">A股银行</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:行业平均潜在上行空间16%,国有大行平均19%,交行(A股)在国有大行中潜力最大(22%)</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><h3 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;font-weight: 500;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">银行股投资建议</span></span></h3><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">我们的首选是</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">招商银行(A股)</span></strong><span leaf="">,兼具较高股息率和市场贝塔。同时看好:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">工行(H股)</span></strong><section><span leaf="">、</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">中行(H股)</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">和</span></strong><span leaf="">交行(A股)</span></strong><span leaf="">:具有可观股息率</span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">关注</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">平安银行</span></strong><span leaf="">和</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">民生银行</span></strong><span leaf="">:可能在2026年实现利润增长转正</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">五、家庭资产配置:存款搬家方兴未艾</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;" /><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">(存款仍占家庭金融资产的47%,股票及相关基金仅占8%)</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">目前家庭资产配置中:</span></p><ul style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">银行存款占比高达47%</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 3px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><section><span leaf="">股票(含股票基金)仅占8%</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">我们预计未来家庭会将5%的银行存款转入股市,同时银行理财产品的股票配置比例可能提高5个百分点。这些因素合计将带来约14万亿元新增资金流入股市。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></h2><h2 style="margin: 24px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 35px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">六、总结:采用杠铃策略配置金融股</span></span></h2><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">综合当前市场环境,我们建议投资者在中国金融股投资中采取</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">杠铃策略</span></strong><span leaf="">:</span></p><ol style="margin: 12px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 24px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;list-style-type: decimal;margin-block: 6px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: medium;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">高贝塔端</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:通过券商增加市场暴露,首选</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">中金(H股)</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">东方财富</span></strong><span leaf="">和</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">华泰(A/H股)</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></section></li><li style=" margin: 3px 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;min-height: 24.5px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86); "><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">稳健收益端</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:配置高股息银行股,首选</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">招行(A股)</span></strong><span leaf="">,同时关注</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">工行(H股)</span></strong><span leaf="">、</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">中行(H股)</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">和</span></strong><span leaf="">交行(A股)</span></strong></section></li></ol><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">随着资产配置轮动持续和超额流动性增加,我们维持对中国银行和券商板块的乐观看法。不过投资者需密切关注政策动向和市场杠杆变化,适时调整持仓结构。</span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><br style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;" /><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"><span leaf="">(华泰证券估值相比同业更具吸引力)</span></em><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;box-sizing: border-box;-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">在流动性充裕的背景下,中国金融板块仍具投资价值,但需注意分化行情,精选个股才能获得超额收益。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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