官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

中秋节假期市场信息（2024 年 9 月 18 日）

发布于 2024-09-18

<section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">首先，8月宏观数据显示内部压力增加。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">房价同比跌幅较7月扩大，社会消费品零售总额增幅缩小且环比微降，出口保持坚挺。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">PPI和CPI低迷，社会融资主要依靠政府，私人部门表现疲软。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">制造业就业同比继续下行至-7.3%，反映内需疲软。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">关于美国加征关税，假期中有两个主要动向：</span></section><p><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">对我国优势产业加征关税：</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"> - 电动汽车：</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">100% - 太阳能电池：</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">50% - 钢铁、铝、电动汽车电池和主要矿产：</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">25% 这些政策早在5月就已宣布。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">唯一变化是明确了电动汽车、电动汽车电池及主要矿产的具体生效日期为9月27日。</span></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">小包裹政策调整：白宫计划降低豁免包裹数量，以防止豁免额度被滥用。政府将把301条款中的商品从豁免名单中剔除，这将影响70%来自中国的纺织服饰进口，对跨境电商造成打击。</span></section><p><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">关于美联储降息，近期美股活跃主要因市场预期降息50个基点的概率提升至50%。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">原本普遍预期为25个基点，但华尔街现在倾向50个基点。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">如果只降25个基点，市场可能会波动。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">个人预测鲍威尔可能会选择25个基点降息配合鹰派言论，或50个基点降息搭配中性表态。</span><span style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-indent: 0em;font-family: mp-quote, -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">决定将在本周三晚公布。</span></p><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">黄金方面，价格再创新高，主要受50个基点降息预期和欧央行降息落地影响。美联储决策后可能出现大幅波动，个人倾向于短期回避黄金。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">黄金股近期表现与金价背离，主要是因为A股基金经理认为美国首次降息时应该卖出黄金股。但此次黄金上涨不仅受美国利率影响，还涉及美元信用和全球央行购金等因素。目前金价已突破2,600美元，而前期超跌的金股开始反弹。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;">最后，上周市场表现惨淡，主要因为政府对全年经济社会发展目标的表述从&quot;坚定不移&quot;变为&quot;努力完成&quot;。尽管短期出台政策的希望不大，但市场仍会对预期和边际变化做出反应。如果有积极信号出现，市场反应可能会很强烈。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: justify;margin: 0px 0px 24px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 17px;letter-spacing: 0.578px;text-decoration: none;"><a target="_blank" href="http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=Mzk0NDYxMjYzNQ==&amp;mid=2247516431&amp;idx=1&amp;sn=0df79ffcaed6743ca14c24432b1c4bc0&amp;chksm=c323357bf454bc6dedde2a32b8ba3d3930c85e5db4b23893683adf28a584513885b216b62697&amp;scene=21#wechat_redirect" textvalue="大摩宏观策略会议纪要 0916：通缩挑战与政策转变前景" linktype="text" imgurl="" imgdata="null" data-itemshowtype="0" tab="innerlink" data-linktype="2">大摩宏观策略会议纪要 0916：通缩挑战与政策转变前景</a><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库