亚洲消费惊现-0.4%工资增长！十国央行紧急救市

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利2025年8月15日发布的亚洲经济研究报告《消费逆风何时消散？》深入分析了当前亚洲消费疲软的原因及未来复苏路径，核心内容如下：</span></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="8-228Z7_zB" style="" data-dir-key="8-228Z7_zB"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、当前消费疲软的核心原因</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三大关键拖累因素</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实际利率高企</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：亚洲多数央行因美元走强延缓宽松，实际利率上升抑制信贷消费。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实际工资增长放缓</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：名义GDP疲软（尤其中国）导致家庭收入增速低迷，日本还受食品通胀（3.6%）侵蚀购买力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">就业创造疲弱</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：贸易紧张（尤其美中关税）打压企业资本支出，韩国、台湾、泰国等出口依赖型经济体就业增长显著放缓。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结构性挑战</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高家庭债务经济体（韩国92%、台湾96%、泰国87%）消费受限，非必需消费品需求持续弱于必需品。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国通缩压力外溢至印度企业利润，间接拖累城市就业与消费。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="wmlfYtLHPt" style="" data-dir-key="wmlfYtLHPt"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、区域分化表现</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策支撑与隐忧</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：以旧换新计划推动汽车/电子产品消费（6月零售额同比+4.8%），但非政策相关零售仅增1.1%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">下半年风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：补贴效应递减、私营部门裁员（“反内卷”政策）及房地产低迷或加剧消费分化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">其他亚洲地区</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">最弱经济体</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：韩国、台湾、泰国因政治不确定性+出口下滑（对华出口占比高），二季度消费增速创五年新低（3.9%）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">亮点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：印度实际利率下降开始传导至信贷，企业招聘初现回暖；日本春斗加薪+食品通胀回落或支撑2025年底实际工资转正。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="ALGyQAwtyG" style="" data-dir-key="ALGyQAwtyG"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、行业分化特征</span></span></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非必需消费品</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：亚洲发达经济体（如澳大利亚、日本）的耐用品/旅游消费受高利率压制明显。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">必需品</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：日本因食品通胀导致必需消费疲软，而其他亚洲地区必需品需求相对稳健。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="TOt55ckg08" style="" data-dir-key="TOt55ckg08"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、复苏时间线与驱动因素</span></span></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年下半年增速或进一步放缓，需观察财政补贴扩围（如服务消费）与房地产政策效果。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">其他亚洲地区</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">转折点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：预计2026年初温和复苏，三大条件将改善：&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实际利率下降</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：印度、印尼等多国已开启降息周期；</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">实际工资回升</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：日本名义工资增长+通胀回落，印度企业利润修复；</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">就业企稳</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：韩国财政刺激（2025Q3）、澳大利亚政策支持就业。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：贸易摩擦若升级，可能延长企业投资与招聘的观望期。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="ymODBcwkz5" style="" data-dir-key="ymODBcwkz5"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">五、重点国家展望</span></span></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">日本</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：2025年底通胀或降至2%以下，家庭现金发放（占GDP 0.5%）或提振耐用品消费。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">印度</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：央行宽松政策滞后效应或在未来2-3季度显现，但关税拖累仍是风险。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">澳大利亚</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">：预计2026年消费增速恢复至2.3%，受益于财政持续发力与澳联储降息。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="tJYKDpKQFM" style="" data-dir-key="tJYKDpKQFM"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">结论</span></span></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">亚洲消费复苏将呈现“阶梯式”特征：中国依赖政策托底，其他地区需等待货币宽松+就业改善的传导。非必需消费品（尤其利率敏感型）或成早期复苏引领者，但高债务经济体反弹力度可能受限。</span></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>