京东营收暴涨22% vs 利润暴跌92%！外卖大战血拼拖累财报，港股消费股集体预警

<section data-mpa-md-root="t" data-mpa-md-template="1"><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqx35qt" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">中信证券2025年8月15日《环球市场动态》报告的主要内容总结：</span></section><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqx41q6" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">一、核心宏观主题：欧洲国防开支升级</span></strong></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">背景</span><span leaf="">：北约峰会期间，近30个欧洲国家承诺将国防支出提升至GDP的5%（3.5%核心国防支出+1.5%广义安全支出），以应对地缘局势不稳、美国安全承诺减弱及军工产业长期投资不足问题。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r0:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">关键数据：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">总增量约</span><span leaf="">5.8万亿美元</span><span leaf="">，德英法三国占比约46%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r2:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">核心国防支出</span><span leaf="">（2.9万亿美元）中，23%投向装备购置，利好欧洲本土及美韩军工企业。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r4:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">广义安全支出</span><span leaf="">（2.9万亿美元）中，54%用于能源及基建领域，将拉动钛材、硬质合金、电网设备等进口需求。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r6:"></span></p></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxb1jsz" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">二、全球市场动态</span></strong></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxc9s9" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">股市表现</span></strong></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">欧美市场：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">美股</span><span leaf="">：因PPI超预期抑制降息预期，三大指数震荡（标普微涨0.03%创新高），金融板块领涨（+0.55%），英特尔因可能获政府入股大涨7.38%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r8:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">欧股</span><span leaf="">：受联储降息预期及美俄谈判推动，泛欧Stoxx600涨0.55%，德法指数涨幅超0.7%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ra:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">亚太市场：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">港股/A股：港股科技股普跌，A股军工股回落；越南股市领涨亚太（+1.8%），日股跌幅居前（-1.4%）。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">拉美市场</span><span leaf="">：墨西哥、巴西股市小幅下跌。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rc:"></span></p></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxjzrv" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">2. 外汇与大宗商品</span></strong></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">汇率：美元指数因PPI数据强劲上涨0.4%，欧元/英镑承压。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">商品：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">原油</span><span leaf="">：结束连跌反弹超2%（纽约期油报63.96美元/桶）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":re:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">黄金</span><span leaf="">：降息预期降温打压金价，纽约期金跌0.74%至3,355.2美元/盎司。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rg:"></span></p></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxp12vr" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">三、固收市场</span></strong></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">美债</span><span leaf="">：PPI创三年最大涨幅（同比3.3%），降息预期降温，10年期美债收益率升5.2个基点至4.28%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ri:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">亚洲债市</span><span leaf="">：投资级债券利差全线收窄，中资地产债需求回升（越秀、金茂领涨）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rk:"></span></p></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxsr38" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">四、重点个股与行业</span></strong></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxsfv0" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">中概股/港股</span></strong></section></li></ol><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">京东（JD US）：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">Q2营收同比+22.4%至3,567亿元，但外卖业务投入拖累利润，调整后EBIT同比大降92%。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rm:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">评级：目标价41美元（现价31.58美元）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ro:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">理想汽车（2015 HK）：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">首款纯电SUV i8目标9月底交付8,000台，智驾能力升级推动AI属性。</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">评级：目标价151港元（现价95.6港元）。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">吉利汽车（175 HK）：H1业绩超预期，但银河系列占比提升压制毛利率。</span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqxz1hy6" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">2. A股/其他</span></strong></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">东山精密（002384 CH）</span><span leaf="">：拟投资10亿美元扩产高端PCB，布局AI业务（目标价62元）。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rq:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">军工股：因欧洲防务开支计划受关注，但A股板块短期回落。</span></section></li></ul><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqy24gv" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">五、其他要闻速递</span></strong></section><ol style="list-style-type: decimal;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">经济数据：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">美国PPI</span><span leaf="">同比升3.3%创三年新高，首次申领失业救济人数微降。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":rs:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">澳大利亚失业率</span><span leaf="">降至4.2%，接近央行目标。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":ru:"></span></p></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">事件驱动：</span></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">印度拟访俄商讨卢比结算贸易。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r10:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">中国152家储能企业联合反对行业“内卷”。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r12:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">特朗普政府拟收购英特尔股份。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r14:"></span></p></section><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="ordered-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">苹果手表血氧功能重返美国市场。</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r16:"></span></p></section></li></ol><section data-mpa-md-key="text" style="font-size: 15px;margin-bottom: 16px;color: #333333;margin-left: 8px;margin-right:8px;margin-top: 16px;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-action-id="mel6kqyb1t4x" data-mpa-md-template="1"><strong><span leaf="">六、风险提示</span></strong></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;padding-left: 1.2em;color: rgb(37, 37, 37);margin-left: 8px;margin-right: 8px;width: fit-content;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">地缘政治：欧洲防务支出落地难度存不确定性。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">市场波动：PPI等通胀数据可能持续扰动降息预期。</span></section></li><li><section style="margin-bottom: 8px;font-size: 15px;color:#333333;letter-spacing: 1px;" data-mpa-md-content="t" data-mpa-md-key="bullet-list" data-mpa-md-action-id="$id" data-mpa-md-template="1"><span leaf="">个股风险：京东外卖投入、车企价格战或延续利润压力。</span></section></li></ul><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>