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人保财险利润飙升32%！成本率大降引爆44亿承保红利

发布于 2025-09-30

<h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="AuAv4snyLL" data-dir-key="AuAv4snyLL" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国财险(2328.HK)研究报告摘要 (基于第一上海2025年9月9日更新报告)</span></span></span></span></h3><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="QoQDYFhUfr" data-dir-key="QoQDYFhUfr"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票评级</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">买入</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标价</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">22.2港元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（较当前股价18.17港元有22.3%的上升空间）&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">估值依据</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 基于1.6倍市净率(PB)，对应公司稳健的基本面和行业龙头地位。目标价设定反映了公司业绩内生增长可持续性强、股息收益率优势（2025E股息收益率为4.6%），以及作为港股唯一纯财产保险标的的稀缺性。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键驱动因素</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 公司2025年上半年业绩创新高，综合成本率(COR)显著改善、投资收益强劲，叠加风险减量措施成效显著。预计2025年归母净利润同比增长35.9%，支撑中长期稳定回报。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="DhJusjkZfi" data-dir-key="DhJusjkZfi"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年上半年业绩亮点</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国财险在2025年上半年（截至6月）实现了创纪录业绩，核心财务指标表现强劲：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">保险服务收入</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2490亿元人民币</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长5.6%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">车险收入:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1503亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长3.5%（受益于保费增长和结构优化）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非车险收入:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">987亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长8.8%（主要受农业险和责任险驱动）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">净利润</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">245亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长32.3%，创历史新高。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">承保利润</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">130亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（剔除投资波动影响），同比增长44.6%，反映核心业务盈利能力提升。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">净资产变动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 较年初增长7.9%，显示资本基础增强；中期派息&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.24元/股</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长15.4%，凸显股东回报提升。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">ROE与总资产回报率</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 2025年上半年实际净资产收益率(ROE)达16.5%（预测值），总资产回报率6.5%，行业领先。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="LA-Ju5TXoX" data-dir-key="LA-Ju5TXoX"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">综合成本率(COR)优化与风险减量成果</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司通过数据驱动和技术应用，大幅优化成本结构，降低了赔付风险：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">整体COR</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 降至</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">94.8%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比下降1.4个百分点（COR低于100%表示承保盈利）。目标2025年全年车险COR控制在96%以内，非车险控制在99%以内。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">分险种COR改善</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">车险:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">94.2%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比改善2.2个百分点（通过精算模型优化定价和核保）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非车险: 农业险改善至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">88.4%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（降0.6pt）；责任险改善至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">103.6%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（降0.5pt）；企财险改善至&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">90.1%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（降9.5pt），非车险增长主要依靠科技赋能提高理赔效率和风控精度。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险减量成效</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">大灾损失大幅降低，2025年1-6月共损失25.1亿元，同比减少38.3%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">截至2025年8月13日，年内累计净损失41.8亿元，同比下降39.9%，反映了公司在气候风险和自然灾害管理上的科技优势（如AI模型提升预测和应对）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="4dFYGnNkcj" data-dir-key="4dFYGnNkcj"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资端表现</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">投资收益成为业绩第二增长引擎，得益于资产配置优化：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总投资收益</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">172.6亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长26.6%（未年化总投资收益率2.6%，同比提升0.2个百分点）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">总投资资产</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">7115亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，同比增长5.2%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">资产配置策略</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主动增配股票，股票持仓占比升至</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">9.2%</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（较上期提高）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">重点布局高股息蓝筹股和“新质生产力”相关板块（如科技、高端制造业），锁定稳定股息收益。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">减少定期存款（占比降2个百分点），转向高收益债券和权益类资产，提升整体回报弹性。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="NtdtVLBTLv" data-dir-key="NtdtVLBTLv"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中长期财务预测与目标价分析</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基于稳健运营和行业龙头地位，第一上海上调了未来预测：</span></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">收入增长</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025E保险服务收入&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">5069.25亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（增长4.5%），2027E预计达&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">5533.23亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（年复合增速4.5%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">车险和非车险保费增长率均保持在5-15%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025E归母净利润&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">450.82亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（同比增长35.9%）；2026E&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">476.57亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（+5.7%）；2027E&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">515.07亿元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（+8.1%）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">每股收益(EPS): 2025E&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.03元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，2027E&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2.32元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股东回报</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025E每股股息&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">0.83元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（股息收益率4.6%），逐年提升至2027E的&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1.00元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">（收益率5.5%）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">PB比率预计从2025E的&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1.3倍</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">降至2027E的&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1.1倍</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，估值仍具吸引力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">目标价理由</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司作为财险行业龙头，马太效应加剧（规模优势和成本控制强化市场地位）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">盈利可持续性强，内生增长通过精益管理和科学定价支撑（如COR和投资双重驱动）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">长期ROE稳定在15-16%，股息率高于同业，符合价值投资逻辑。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="JUJiwCp89J" data-dir-key="JUJiwCp89J"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">公司基础信息与风险考量</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">股票代码</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 2328.HK（香港上市）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市值</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: H股总市值&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1254亿港元</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">，主要股东为中国人民保险集团（持股比例68.98%）。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">52周股价范围</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 9.53港元至19.81港元，当前股价18.17港元处于中期高位（报告认为上涨空间充足）。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险与平衡点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">: 潜在风险包括极端天气事件增加赔付压力、利率下行影响投资收益，以及资本市场波动。但公司科技能力（如核保AI和风控模型）已部分抵消这些风险，且报告预测行业平稳背景下增长可持续。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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