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人口与住房

发布于 2023-04-04

<section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.31203703703703706" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIyB7H7mn59Kat87CicjGmWQmTnQ7Ix0JKHnqibQHrM2XZnrunqRiajTWyibbYia8QxrILu0fWzWBuiaPalQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;wx_co=1" data-w="1080" /></span></section><section style="margin: 5px 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 0.544px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;min-height: 1em;line-height: 1.5em;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 14px;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;visibility: visible;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">▼</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);"><span style="text-indent: 0em;">上周</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;">是各大房</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;">企2022年报密集发布期,不少房企对未</span><span style="text-indent: 0em;">来市场做了判断:</span></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">保利:未来5年,新房市场规模将维持</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong>10万亿元以上</strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-indent: 0em;">,新房及二手房市场规模合计将超20万亿元。</span></section><section style="line-height: 1.6em;text-align: left;margin: 0px 16px 16px;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);">万科:新房市场需求,上有天花板,下有保底线,一段时间内每年</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">12亿平方米</span></strong><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51);font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: normal;text-decoration: none solid rgb(51, 51, 51);">的市场需求还是有的,这就是保底线。</span></section><p style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-align: left;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">本文从城市居民</span><strong style="font-size: 10.5pt;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">一些实际住房情况的视角,看不同城市的容量潜力及特征</span></strong><span style="text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></p><section style="margin: 32px 16px 16px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 48px;">01</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 0px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 20px;">一个现状</span></section><p style="margin: 8px 16px 16px;text-align: center;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 22px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">“<em style="text-align: center;white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 22px;font-weight: bold;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">41.7 &amp; 34.3%</span></em>”</span></em></p><p style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">2020年七普数据显示人均住房面积达到41.76平,这通常被认为是一个</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">很高的标准</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">,在国际上仅次于人人住大别墅的美国(67平)及意大利(43平)。</span></p><p style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">这表明我们人民的整体生活水平较好,住房条件相对较高,</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">住房资源相对充足</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></p><p style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">城市居民住房来源主要有三个,</span><span style="color: rgb(217, 33, 66);font-size: 18px;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">买、租、建</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">。</span></p><p style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">全国337个城市2020年的情况是,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">每100个人,有46个住自建房、34个住商品房、15个租房住、其他5个</span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">。</span></strong><span style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;"><stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" connecttype="rect"></path><lock aspectratio="t"></lock></shapetype><shape type="#_x0000_t75" filled="f" style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;left: 0px;width: 415.3pt;height: 195.8pt;"><imagedata title="image1"></imagedata></shape><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.4711191335740072" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qdmBbyfwxibjZicq6DN435niaJYzeCXEzrHFlrqAqPADzYCib0cI77QbzhA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="text-indent: 0em;font-size: 16px;width: 553.742px;height: 264.07px;" /></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">所以,可以清晰地得出结论是,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">全国住房总量是够的,但仍然是以自建房为主,商品房比例不足。</span></strong></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">租房:14.6%,通常同外来及流动人口的比例高度正相关。</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">买房:34.3%,通常同城市发展阶段呈正相关。</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">自建房:46.0%,通常同城市化水平呈负相关。</span></span></section></li></ul><p style="margin: 32px 16px 16px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 48px;">02</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 8px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 20px;">巨大差异</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><em><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;">“<em style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;text-align: center;white-space: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 22px;">17.1% VS 59.9%</span></strong></em>”</span></strong></em></span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;"></span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">总量住房需求基本到了天花板,这是无可厚非的事情。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">但</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">中国的特殊性在于人口的超大规模性及地域的不均衡性,</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">需要关注的是一</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">些结构性的差异。</span></span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">以中国10大人口城市为例,购房是以家庭为单位,挑选全国家庭户数Top10进行分析,他们分别是:</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.11371841155234658" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7q6bHQz52dkiaQ5M3yXUj6BIMq6TibCWUibqnKGSgdo1qNrJicR26AacpsKQ/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.739990234375px;height:63.470001220703125px;" /></span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">用气泡图,综合来看看不同城市居民的住房来源情况:</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6768953068592057" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qdy5Orn1Yg3iaTkqd7nV0SZameJkibNSiaBAG8YXEfDtJTfKKDLTV3F1Tw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="width:553.7417602539062px;height:378.2699890136719px;" /></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">从购买情况来看</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,深圳、广州、杭州住房自有率比较低,仍有很大的提升空间,天津、上海、苏州住房拥有率高,增量空间有限。天津商品住房拥有率高达59.9%,是深圳17.1%的</span></span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">3.5倍</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">从租赁情况来看</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,北上广深杭几大城市租房比例超过30%,租赁市场需求相对大,而重庆、天津租房比例极小。</span></span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">从自建比例来看</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">,重庆、西安、成都、杭州四大城市比较高,达到了20%以上。</span></span></section></li></ul><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">接下来,我们从“有没有”、“好不好”、“缺不缺“3个视角看</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">城市居民住房的进度条</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">:</span></section><p style="margin: 16px;text-align: justify;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><em><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 22px;">2.1 【有没有】</span></strong></em><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 22px;"></span></strong></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">“有没有”,即人均住房面积,可以理解为</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">住房总量视角</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,假设人均50平是理论天花板,看看各大城市的住房完成进度。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">除了深圳21.5平,其他城市超过了60%,西安人均住房面积45.06平/人,住房总量进度达到了90%,基本达到了天花板。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0838709677419356" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qH3g2WjRnGqK3vzA6T2sgsdPb2p8MEMaEv0z2R4JClIBTOpV14VYr1Q/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="465" style="" /></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">从总量视角,我们可以得出:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">深圳</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">还很缺房、大部分人还处于蜗居状态;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">广州、上海、北京、天津</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">住房稍有不足,但人均住房面积已经达到了30平以上,基本实现了安居;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">苏州、成都、重庆、杭州、西安</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">基本不缺房,人均住房面积已经达到了40平,达到舒适状态。</span></section></li></ul><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">10大城市平均水平为36.9平/人,住房饱和度为73.8%,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">从“美好生活人均50平视角看“,大城市也基本不缺房了。</span></strong></span></section><p style="margin: 16px;text-align: justify;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;">2.2 【好不好】</span></em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">“好不好”,即结构问题,我们这里主要</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从资产的角度来定义</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">,而不是从居住的舒适度,乡村大别墅的居住体验应该远远高于城市商品房,但很难变现,资产属性弱。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">所以,我们重点关注城镇居民商品房的拥有率,用这个资产的角度评估“好房子”。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">可以看到</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">深圳</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">依然是最低仅17.1%,无论大小、地段,能买一套商品房基本就是碾压了80%的市民,</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">广州</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">位居其次27.2%。</span></section><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">天津</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">处于最高,已经达到了60%,即60%的城市居民已经在城里已经有了一套或以上的房产,可以说比例已经相当高了。</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp;</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="1.0883620689655173" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qlo1F5gIq5Oo0vPaRyuthOiaaliaUUoRNzs2XAdskq9Oyny8ckgVblO7A/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="464" style="" /></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">10大城市平均水平为42.3%,</span><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">从“共同富裕”视角看,假设户均一套商品住房,仍有一定的提升空间。</span></strong></section><p style="margin: 16px;text-align: justify;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;">2.3 【缺不缺】</span></em><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 22px;"></span></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-size: 16px;">看到这里,大家会觉得有些懵,画个矩阵一起理解:</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">回答一开始的问题,缺口越大,意味着潜在的市场容量空间越大,但不一定意味着未来1-2年市场的好差,这是个</span><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">长期住房总量的视角,同短期波动和企业收益是不同维度</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;">。</span></span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5857664233576643" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qY2TsZCkM7iajaZPicKVBo8FwWP27bKqcUXdzSNoibaLW2QTicuZxT29zCw/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="548" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;width: 550.69px;height: 324.12px;" /></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;">不考虑人口流动,城市现有居民住房情况,可以分为4个类型:</span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="list-style-type: disc;"><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">广州、深圳:住房、商品房都缺,仍处于</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">住房快速发展</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">阶段;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">苏州、成都、重庆、西安:住房、商品房都不缺,进入</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">市场饱和</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">阶段</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">;</span></section></li><li><section style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">天津、上海、北京:缺住房、不缺商品房,主要是</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">总量有机补充</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">;</span></section></li><li><p style="text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;text-align: left;margin-bottom: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">杭州:住房缺口小、商品房缺口大,进入</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">质量提升为主</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">的阶段。</span></p></li></ul><p style="margin: 32px 16px 8px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 20px;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 48px;font-weight: 700;text-align: center;">0</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 48px;font-weight: 700;text-align: center;">3</span></span></p><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 8px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 20px;">1组应用</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 8px;text-align: center;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><em style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 10.5pt;text-indent: 0em;"><span style="font-size: 22px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">“<em style="font-family: 等线;font-size: 14px;"><span style="font-size: 22px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">21.8年 PK 6.7年</span></em>”</span></em></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;">落位到不同城市的容量空间,基于对未来的预期情形,可以有多种假设,结合不同城市住房供给规划,即可定义可开发的年份。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;">比如深圳,“十四五”规划供给商品住房总套数为65万套,其中租赁住房20万套,即可测算出2025年,全市居民面积为25.0平/人、商品住房使用率21.6%。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">以</span><span style="font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">人均住房面积(总量)</span></strong></span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">为例,未来可以有3个假设与对比:</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;">假设1:达到10大城市平均水平(保守)。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;">假设2:达到全国城市平均水平(中性)。</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;">假设3:达到理论容量天花板(乐观)。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6859205776173285" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qibySDiaI8lNakdGPvMkdSINIiaV1ghs27IEx6xaviaTc9SedibiaP2Oucntg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;width: 553.742px;height: 383.21px;" /></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-size: 16px;">所以,深圳的住房问题类同早年的香港,仍需要一段时间周期。同理,可以跟上海比较下:</span><span style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</span><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" o:preferrelative="t" filled="f" stroked="f" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;"><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"></v:path></v:shapetype><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7111913357400722" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/AJkYaTAujIx8alWCOETHgUNAlCVicfn7qrY9fHqMYlribomd5UuhcUMpI8qfTuOoTOUjgwda1ibDEaLa3JnHia5joA/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="554" style="font-size: 16px;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0em;width: 553.742px;height: 396.67px;" /></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">如果以中性假设进行对比:</span><span style="font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(0, 122, 170);">深圳21.8年PK上海6.7年</span></section><section style="margin: 0pt 16px 16px;text-align: left;font-size: 10.5pt;font-family: 等线;font-weight: normal;text-indent: 0em;line-height: 1.6em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">可以识别出不同城市总量住房需求空间,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;font-weight: bold;">城市发展阶段决定了房地产开发的生命周期,</span><span style="font-size: 16px;font-family: 微软雅黑;">以5-10年行业视角看,深圳仍需要大规模的新建城市住宅,填补总量不足的问题;而上海将进入住房总量见顶,存量更新主导,如老变新、自建房改商品房。</span></span></section><section style="margin-right: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 16px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;color: rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align: center;line-height: 1.6em;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 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