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信阳全国首个全面推行现房销售!楼市巨变开启

发布于 2025-09-10

<p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">以下是对中银证券房地产行业研究报告核心内容的详细总结:</span></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="dzokrV7yYC" style="" data-dir-key="dzokrV7yYC"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">一、行业现状:量价压力持续,需求总量下行</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">销售萎缩</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全国商品房销售面积自2021年峰值(17.9亿平)持续下滑,2024年仅9.7亿平(回归2009年水平),2025H1同比再降4%。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045358" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtVyokeWxkj4siarAugX1OQpSJKSl38FDomXYHQxMGv56VDYcxcFmKrcQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预计2025年全年销售面积降至8.8亿平,主因居民收入预期未改善、供给缩量及二手房分流。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">价格下跌</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全国商品房均价2023年达峰值1.04万元/平,2024年同比降5%至9935元/平,2025H1续降至9649元/平。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045359" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtMdOyXzWVx4Cty6SiaIWrC2wn2KhFySxRF0p2xnj35kOMnuuFQLA4ALQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">70城新房房价连续两年下跌,2025H1同比下跌城市达67个;二手房房价全线下跌。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045360" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtqNc5hvdiasfrcATs07Iia7nOW6BnibG9ToAPicVRYIricVQzoJPiaczgdu3Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="7kO6PzF3w3" style="" data-dir-key="7kO6PzF3w3"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">二、未来方向:增量变精 + 存量优化</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="bpg8RYaYlS" style="" data-dir-key="bpg8RYaYlS"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(一)增量变精:土地供给“缩量重质” + 开发建设“提质增效”</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">土地供给优化</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策支持</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:多地减少无效供地,推动核心地段宅地入市(如北京、上海明确土地供应向中心城区倾斜)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场表现</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025H1全国住宅用地成交建面同比降4%,但楼面均价同比涨25%,溢价率升至10.5%(深圳、杭州超30%)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045361" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRticcoAu9uibpzfh6kFP7zu1ibtmD7XOB0FLatibfqVvJicxU94odVdMSialicw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">容积率下降</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:成交地块平均容积率降至2.0,政府通过低容积率地块鼓励打造“好房子”。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">开发品质升级</span></span></strong></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策驱动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年《政府工作报告》首次写入“好房子”,《住宅项目规范》5月实施,确立“安全、舒适、绿色、智慧”强制标准。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场验证</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:新规产品去化率显著优于旧规(如广州新规项目去化率39% vs 旧规9%)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045362" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtux68IjXj7hMibkd5DvQ2Td01SSDKPdneHaUUwJOVlTKT1xlhpEicEQWg/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">房企响应</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">头部房企(绿城、华润等)推出自有“好房子”体系;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中小房企(如南京奥体建设)凭借高得房率(超90%)实现首开100%去化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h4 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="1P21-Yg0BM" style="" data-dir-key="1P21-Yg0BM"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(二)存量优化:城市更新“高质量开展” + 运营服务“切中需求”</span></span></strong></span></span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城市更新成为主线任务</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策定位</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年7月中央城市工作会议明确“高质量开展城市更新”,配套政策有望加速落地(如旧改房票安置、金融支持)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">规模与类型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">近3年年均项目超6万个,老旧小区改造占主导(5万个/年);&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2021-2024年总投资额累计16.6万亿元。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">创新模式案例</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">老旧街区</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:上海愚园路“微改造+业态更新”(引入文创、网红IP);&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">商场改造</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:长沙乐和城转型策展型购物中心“TX淮海”;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">工业遗址</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:重庆开埠遗址公园“文物修复+产业导入”;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">非居改租</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:武汉万科泊寓2035“工改租”模式(出租率90%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">运营服务转型“地产+”</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">商业地产</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:从传统零售转向沉浸式体验,创新模式包括:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">首店经济</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(2024年二次元首店数量同比+668%);&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">快闪/IP联动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(上海静安大悦城Chiikawa主题快闪39天销售额2610万元);&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">“购物中心+剧场”</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(上海笑果工厂上座率99%)。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">物业管理</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">优势</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:围墙/客源/信任优势,精准触达需求;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">转型路径</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:从劳动密集型→科技赋能精准服务→智慧平台商业模式。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">养老地产</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策支持</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:连续4年写入《政府工作报告》,银发经济潜力大(2024年65岁以上人口占比15.6%);&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">模式升级</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:从卖房回款→“康医学乐养”复合消费(如绿城乌镇雅园“学院式养老”)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="WSKmjgeFH2" style="" data-dir-key="WSKmjgeFH2"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">三、投资建议:三条主线布局</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">增量变精方向</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关注积极获取优质地块、注重产品品质的房企:</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">滨江集团、华润置地、越秀地产、建发国际</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城市更新方向</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">受益旧改加速的地方国企:</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">城投控股、城建发展</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">运营服务方向</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">多元业务布局及运营能力突出的企业:</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">瑞安房地产、太古地产、大悦城、华润万象生活、新城控股</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="lH8kTJMgb7" style="" data-dir-key="lH8kTJMgb7"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">四、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策效果不及预期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:各地调控政策对市场提振作用有限;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">基本面超预期下行</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:销售、房价波动或导致新开工/投资进一步萎缩;&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">融资收紧风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:房企资金紧张问题持续存在。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">核心结论</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:房地产行业进入“总量下行、结构分化”阶段,未来机会在于&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">高品质增量开发</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(好房子)与&nbsp;</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">存量资产优化</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(城市更新+运营服务),重点关注政策支持领域及具备产品力/运营能力的房企。</span></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100045363" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwlGjnSib6JXXoeO8wTia7icXRtWckTYiaT2HtXVPFT3tVdokEOvMJ7OIjW7F7Jy0h3gjd0Ac59k9ic20fQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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