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储能爆发:未来十年CAGR超20%,潜力超AI!

发布于 2025-09-09

<ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告发布日期</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年09月05日</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="ks17W7t7bT" style="" data-dir-key="ks17W7t7bT"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第一部分:全球能源转型进展</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告强调能源革命是储能增长的基础背景,重点包括:</span></span></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">能源革命演变</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第一次革命(农业文明)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:人工取火。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第二次革命(化石能源)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:蒸汽机发明,转向煤炭/石油。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第三次革命(电气化)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:电力普及,提升生产力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第四次革命(碳中和)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:光伏/风电成为主体能源(2025年风光渗透率显著提升)。</span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044793" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzDfmSNhSj74BjKHM4WPEffuzO6XPcsNZc9e8JUk4Q0xroBEAoOg912Q/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><figure></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">气候协议推动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2015年《巴黎协定》限制全球升温至1.5°C以内驱动转型(IPCC报告显示人类活动致近200年气温陡升)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">全球风光渗透率现状(2024年)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国、美国、欧洲</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:全球发电量占比56%(中33%、美14%、欧9%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风光渗透率增长</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:相比2015年,2024年中国风光发电占比从11.6%升至42.0%;美国从4.0%升至25.8%;欧洲从17.2%升至28.5%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><figure><section nodeleaf=""><img data-imgfileid="100044788" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzPRpygwRhIqDctLSlCfcUx7cJeEv7L1SuHYDwETqysicvlKcGxfN1iaDA/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="other" height="219" width="640" /></section></figure><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="n" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">消纳问题加剧</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">(证据支持储能需求):&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:光伏现货电价持续下跌(如2025年多省电价低于0.1元/kWh),光伏利用率跌破90%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美国(加州)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:净负荷曲线从“鸭子”变“峡谷”,弃光率从2022年起大幅上升至20%以上。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧洲</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:电力市场负电价次数激增(2023年德国等区域次数创纪录)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">原因</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:风光出力不可控导致出力与负荷错配,中午光伏过剩需储能调峰。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">储能经济性拐点</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">度电成本(LCOS)</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:4小时锂电储能在最优情景(低价锂、高循环次数、长寿命)下低至0.33-0.60元/kWh。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">对比收益</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2025年部分省份现货市场峰谷价差约0.5元/kWh,配合容量电价政策,储能项目已具经济性。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="Mrq5mQyPl4" style="" data-dir-key="Mrq5mQyPl4"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第二部分:全球储能市场盘点</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告盘点2024年全球储能市场数据,突出中美欧主导地位及新兴增长点。</span></span></span></span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044794" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibznqY8JE1Cwc6iar0GLZ06h1DFYNyrSqxsNPicibzVtqDO4TuB23n7ZMLIA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">1.全球市场概况</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年新增装机</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:74GW/181GWh,同比增长66%/88%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">区域分布</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中国占比55%(99GWh)、美国19%(34GWh)、欧洲14%(21GWh)、其他地区13%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">应用场景</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:表前储能(电网级)为主导(占中国94%、美国90%、欧洲表前占25%,但户储在欧洲占比71%)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">主要市场分析</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">中国市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年新增装机39GW/99GWh,同比增长77%/113% 。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044795" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzB0zRxYgmEGmohhmHYIzjRU4Ko6mhA8NwS3IPFD1O21Gh9Fo0EsyZrw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年上半年新增13.7GW/33.8GWh,同增32%/40%。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策转折:2025年“取消强制配储”标志经济性成熟,类似2019年风光平价化。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年1-7月招标量达202GWh,同比增长246%,由市场驱动替代政策驱动。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">美国市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年新增装机12GW/34GWh,同增63%/59%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044796" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzeDMvns4YaCibIEJOQEBcUtGJvczR6xFzU32zKHgr3Q5SwQpB7NhWEZQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section></li></ul><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2025年上半年新增5.5GW/18.8GWh,同增35/44%,主要因ITC补贴抢装。</span></span></span></span></section><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:关税及政策壁垒上升:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">当前对中国储能产品总关税达40.90%,2025年11月或升至64.90%,2026年超80%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">OBBBA法案新增“外国敏感实体”限制,2026年后ITC补贴受冲击。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">欧洲市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年新增装机11GW/21GWh,同增23%/32%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">大储成新增主力:2024年大储新增2.9GW/7.4GWh,同增108%/197%,户储受电价回落影响增放缓。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044797" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzWQIjDoURVgM3EA0LIEwxj2UxoHicMP4wxK2IdB1JK5rcOqfT29DmuFw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">事件驱动:2025年4月西班牙大规模停电凸显储能重要性。</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测:2029年欧洲储能装机达118GWh新增量(SolarPower Europe)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">新兴市场</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键国家</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中东(沙特SEC项目12.5GWh)、印度(2025年起新建风光配储2-4小时)、澳洲(市场化高)、日本(补贴转向)、南非(2024年投运1.6GWh)、智利(政策框架完善)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">数据支持</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:中东、印度等地2025-2030年新增预期超5GWh/年,驱动因素包括发电量大、风光占比高(如中东光伏渗透率低但增速快)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="yQijS541CS" style="" data-dir-key="yQijS541CS"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">第三部分:中长期储能需求展望</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">报告强调储能处于成长初期,基于气候目标和风光需求推导长期高增长。</span></span></span></span></p><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="1"><li><span data-marker="1."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">预测逻辑框架</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">因果链</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:气候危机→能源转型→净零目标→风光装机需求→储能需求。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">情景基础</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:IEA乐观情景(NZE)支持《巴黎协定》1.5°C目标,COP28设定2030年全球可再生能源装机增至三倍(至少11000GW)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风光需求预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">光伏</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2030-2035年新增装机峰值1069GW/年(累计从2024年2163GW升至2035年12044GW)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">风电</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:同期新增峰值362GW/年。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">储能需求核心驱动</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:风光渗透率提升需解决日内波动问题。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="2"><li><span data-marker="2."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">储能规模预测</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:</span></span></span></span></li></ol><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">IEA模型</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">2024年全球电池储能累计装机163GW,2024-2035年CAGR约21.4%。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">峰值时间</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2030-2035年,年新增装机功率达264GW(容量对应1.5TWh以上)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">累计增长</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2035年达2580GW,2050年5512GW。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">关键指标演进</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">配储时长</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:从2024年2.3小时增至2035年3.8小时、2050年5小时。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">渗透率</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:以中国为例,2024年储能渗透率仅4.9%(占新增灵活调节需求比例),预计10年内升至70%,火电调峰/抽蓄占比下降。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-imgfileid="100044798" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwnibvXV3icCunbLOBibwCvXbibzIx95ZdYgmoGRicDnibKicicvdCZWYSJCwfdsIrhKNhyYic4VSteIv9OlibSQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" type="block" /></section><ul style="list-style-type: disc;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">增长潜力</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></section></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">市场规模</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2035年新增装机容量超1.5TWh,电池出货超2TWh/年。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">产业阶段</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:储能类似2018年光伏产业,短期易被低估(因政策与技术突变),实际处于规模化发展初期。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">CAGR分析</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:2024-2035年全球新增容量CAGR超20%,增长快于AI算力等赛道。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ol class="list-paddingleft-1" start="3"><li><span data-marker="3."></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">信心来源</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:双碳目标坚定(如中国/欧美COP30大会前更新2035年NDCs目标),人类命运共同体应对气候危机。</span></span></span></span></li></ol><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span></span></p><h3 data-slate-node="element" data-block-id="bRUFwj662Z" style="" data-dir-key="bRUFwj662Z"><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">第四部分</span></span></span></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">、风险提示</span></span></strong></span></span></h3><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">政策风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:储能产业政策、电力市场机制波动(如中国现货市场推广)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">竞争风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:产业链内卷加剧利润压力。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">贸易风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:美国关税升级(当前40.90%)影响出口。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">成本风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:锂价波动影响系统经济性。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><span data-marker=""></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></strong></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><strong><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">模型风险</span></span></strong></span></span><span data-slate-node="text"><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-zero-width="z" data-slate-length="0"></span></span><span data-slate-leaf="true"><span data-slate-string="true"><span leaf="">:电力系统测算偏差(如IEA情景与实际转型速度差异)。</span></span></span></span></li></ul><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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