官网首页 › 研究观点 › 观点正文

全球关税博弈与贸易逆差的深层逻辑

发布于 2025-04-06

<h4 style="margin: 1rem 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 600;font-size: 1.0625rem;line-height: 1.5;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">【核心观点】</span></h4><p style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 0.75rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;"><span leaf="">关税是国际经济博弈的双刃剑:短期可保护产业、获取谈判筹码,但长期可能引发贸易战反噬;贸易逆差本质是美元霸权体系的产物,需结合金融账户综合分析。</span></p><h3 style="margin: 1rem 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 600;font-size: 1.1875rem;line-height: 1.5;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">一、关税的利弊博弈</span></h3><ol style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 1rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 15px;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">基础逻辑</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">直接效应:提高进口商品价格,消费者受损(如美国洗衣机涨价34%)、本土生产商获益,整体造成经济效率损失。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">隐性成本:中间产品关税(如钢铁)推高下游产业成本,典型案例导致福特汽车损失超10亿美元。</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">战略价值</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">产业保护</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:幼稚产业理论支撑美国/德国19世纪崛起(纺织业/钢铁业关税保护)。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">政治工具</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:美国通过钢铁关税绑定关键摇摆州(宾夕法尼亚120万钢铁工会选票),拜登叫停日本制铁收购即为此逻辑。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">谈判杠杆</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:特朗普对加拿大加征关税迫使重签北美贸易协定,威胁策略常获超额收益。</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">反噬风险</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">1963年&quot;鸡肉大战&quot;显示报复性关税致双输:欧洲鸡肉进口腰斩,美国卡车业受损,消费者承担涨价成本。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">长期抑制市场竞争与创新,削弱国际贸易的多样性红利。</span></section></li></ul></ol><h3 style="margin: 1rem 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 600;font-size: 1.1875rem;line-height: 1.5;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">二、国际博弈的囚徒困境与破局</span></h3><ol style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 1rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 15px;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">关税困境模型</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: circle;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">以牙还牙</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:重复博弈中建立&quot;开放-反击&quot;机制(如WTO允许报复性关税);</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">利益绑定</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:通过WTO/欧盟等共同体最大化合作收益,典型案例美欧飞机补贴争端20年终和解。</span></section></li></ul><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">两国博弈最优解为共同开放(各+3分),但个体理性导致双保护(各-3分)。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">破局策略</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">历史教训</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">1930年《斯姆特-霍利关税法》引发全球贸易暴跌60%,证明单边保护主义灾难性;</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">二战后WTO体系使全球关税从22%降至5%,推动出口占GDP比重从5%升至25%。</span></section></li></ul></ol><h3 style="margin: 1rem 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 600;font-size: 1.1875rem;line-height: 1.5;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">三、贸易逆差的本质与美元霸权</span></h3><ol style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 1rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 15px;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">结构性成因</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">美国贸易逆差(2024年1.13万亿美元)实为美元国际货币地位的镜像:各国增持美元资产→金融账户顺差抵消经常账户逆差。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">特里芬悖论</span></strong><section><span leaf="">印证:美元作为储备货币必然导致美国长期逆差。</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">逆差的双面性</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">健康逆差:反映投资需求旺盛(如澳大利亚);</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">风险逆差:外债失控引发货币危机(部分新兴市场)。</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">中美对比(2024)</span></strong></p></li></ol><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="130" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="100037690" data-ratio="0.225" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" type="block" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkYOvoCibsVhTsC2CTX5EhG5tRFDgVwEZdpI3QViaGfd2wJZGsKL4QJBsRaCCdIHJMwHt1Eh7ltaOMQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><h3 style="margin: 1rem 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 600;font-size: 1.1875rem;line-height: 1.5;vertical-align: baseline;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">四、未来研判</span></h3><ol style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 1rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 15px;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">趋势判断</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">逆全球化周期开启:WTO机制失灵,各国转向区域协定(如USMCA),产业回流与&quot;友岸外包&quot;成主流。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><section><span leaf="">技术关税兴起:半导体、新能源等战略产业关税工具化(如美国对华芯片限制)。</span></section></li></ul><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-weight: 400;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;display: inline;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">策略建议</span></strong></p></li><ul style="margin: 0.25rem 0px 0.25rem 1.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: outside;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">精准关税</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:保护核心产业(如半导体),避免无差别加征;</span></section></li><li style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.25rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-width: inherit;font-size: 0.9375rem;line-height: 1.6;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">金融反制</span></strong><section><span leaf="">:推动本币结算体系(如中国CIPS占比已达49%),削弱美元单极依赖。</span></section></li></ul></ol><p style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-width: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-size-adjust: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-variant-emoji: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">结论</span></strong><span leaf="">:关税的本质是权力再分配工具,需在开放与保护间动态平衡;理解贸易逆差需穿透美元霸权逻辑,大国博弈最终比拼的是制度与技术创新能力。</span></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><p style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 20px;font-weight: bold;text-decoration: underline;">以下为正文:</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0.5rem 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;font-size: 15px;line-height: 1.75;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: auto;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: auto;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration: none;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">今天我们来探讨2025年全球经济最热门的话题——关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">特朗普曾说关税是&quot;the most beautiful word in the Dictionary, more beautiful than love&#39;s music to my ears&quot;。然而,大多数经济学家认为关税会降低经济效率、造成资源浪费。数百年来,关于关税的争论在经济学家、政治家和民众之间持续不断。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这个看似简单的概念,究竟会在复杂的宏观经济中引发怎样的连锁反应?在国际博弈中扮演什么角色?各国该采取什么策略?归根结底,关税到底会让一个国家受益还是受损?</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们通过全面了解关税,回顾全球300年来的贸易历程,来形成自己的判断。</span></p><p><span leaf="">首先,什么是关税?让我们用一个简单的例子来说明。假设有个叫奶茶国的国家,它的邻国奶牛国盛产奶粉。奶茶国需要从奶牛国进口大量奶粉,正常情况下奶粉售价是100奶币一桶。一天,奶茶国政府决定对进口奶粉加征20%的关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">于是,进口商每进口一桶奶粉,就要向奶茶国政府缴纳20奶币的关税。为了维持利润,进口商将售价提高到120奶币一桶。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税的影响可以从一个现实案例来看。2018年,特朗普对进口洗衣机征收20%至50%的关税。这项政策的主要原因是三星、LG、海尔等海外品牌的竞争压力过大,严重挤压了惠而浦、GE等本土品牌的市场空间。</span></p><p><span leaf="">政策实施后,美国政府在随后三年收取了约10亿美元的关税。洗衣机价格在五年内上涨了34%,而同期家电整体涨幅为23%——也就是说,洗衣机比整体家电多涨了10%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">值得注意的是,不仅从韩国、中国进口的洗衣机价格上涨,就连美国本土厂商生产的洗衣机和烘干机价格也随之上涨。这些涨价成本最终都转嫁到了美国消费者身上。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税让某些群体获益,也让另一些群体受损。从国家整体角度来看,关税究竟是利大于弊,还是弊大于利?这是政府制定关税政策时必须权衡的核心问题。</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们来看看经典经济学模型的分析。以奶茶国的无关税时期为例,我们可以研究关税对国民福祉的影响。这个例子虽然简单,但结论明确:征收关税会让消费者受损,生产者受益,但整体上会带来效率损失。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这只是经典经济学的理论框架。教科书通常认为自由贸易效率最高,而关税、补贴和限制等措施都会降低效率。但按照这个经典模型,关税真的必然带来无谓损失吗?</span></p><p><span leaf="">&quot;政府从不征收关税&quot;这种说法过于理想化。在现实中,关税的影响远比经济模型预测的要复杂。</span></p><p><span leaf="">首先,关税可以保护国内特定产业发展。18世纪,美国首任财政部长汉密尔顿提出&quot;幼稚产业保护理论&quot;,认为新兴产业在发展初期需要保护。从长远看,适度牺牲经济效率来扶持这些产业可能带来丰厚回报。19世纪的美国和德国就是很好的例子——它们通过关税保护纺织业、钢铁业和汽车业,最终促成了制造业的快速崛起。</span></p><p><span leaf="">但关税也有明显的负面影响。除了提高消费者支出外,对中间产品征收关税会增加下游产业的成本。就像前面提到的奶茶国的例子,对进口奶粉征收关税导致整个奶茶行业受到冲击。再比如2018年,当特朗普对钢铁和铝产品分别加征25%和10%的关税时,虽然帮助了美国钢铁产业喘息,但同时也伤害了下游制造商。福特汽车的CEO表示,仅钢铁关税一项就让公司损失了至少10亿美元。正因如此,经济学家凯恩斯建议只对制成品征收关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税还有一个显著特点:它往往能获得部分民意支持。多数民众认为进口意味着资金外流,因此倾向支持保护本土产业的关税政策。这种倾向在经济低迷时期尤为明显。比如在大萧条时期,美国采取了严厉的贸易保护政策,但这反而延缓了经济复苏。</span></p><p><span leaf="">在美国,关税政策与选举政治紧密相连。摇摆州的关键产业工会能左右选举结果,因此关税政策往往倾向于保护这些州的产业利益。以钢铁关税为例,作为关键摇摆州的宾夕法尼亚州(&quot;钢铁之城&quot;匹兹堡所在地),其拥有120万会员的钢铁工会就发挥着重要作用。最近,当日本制铁计划收购美国钢铁公司时,在工会的强烈反对和国家安全考虑下,拜登于2025年1月3日签署行政令叫停了这笔交易。</span></p><p><span leaf="">从卡特到小布什,从特朗普到拜登,历届政府都实施过钢铁保护政策。关税措施往往针对性地指向关键摇摆州的重要产业,如宾夕法尼亚的钢铁、佛罗里达和威斯康星的重点产品。这种策略性征收关税的特点明确:在有限的制裁额度内,集中打击最具政治影响力的目标。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税常常能推动新的贸易谈判。美国对加拿大钢铁征收关税一年后,就通过谈判达成了新版北美贸易协定。2017年,美国威胁退出北美自贸协定(NAFTA)并对加拿大、墨西哥加征关税,最终在汽车和农业等领域获得了更多保护条款。这种谈判策略——包括最近与世界卫生组织谈判时威胁退出的做法——往往能帮助美国争取更有利的条件。</span></p><p><span leaf="">你看美国最近又提出要给进口汽车加征20%的关税,究竟是真要实施还是谈判策略还不得而知。这招确实够狠的。关税可以作为谈判筹码让对手受损,这是一大优势。但对方利益受损后必然会反击,这也是关税的重要成本,特别是反击力度往往难以预测。</span></p><p><span leaf="">1963年的&quot;鸡肉大战&quot;就是个典型例子。当时美国向欧洲大量出口鸡肉,引起西德养鸡户不满。欧洲随即对美国鸡肉加征40%关税,导致一年内欧洲从美国的鸡肉进口从5,000万美元骤降至2,000万美元。美国立即反击,对欧洲轻型卡车加征25%关税,重创了大众在美国的卡车出口。最终两国消费者都因卡车和鸡肉涨价而受损,只有欧洲养鸡场和美国卡车厂从中获益。</span></p><p><span leaf="">还有一个我们尚未讨论的关键因素是汇率。当这些影响因素叠加在一起时,长期结果就变得非常难以预测。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税还带来了许多隐性影响,包括限制商品多样性、阻碍国际思想交流以及减少市场竞争——而这些恰恰是国际贸易能带来的重要好处。这些分析让我们对关税的优缺点有了更全面的认识。</span></p><p><span leaf="">权衡各种现实因素后,关税的总体利弊如何?业界普遍认为,无差别加征关税会损害经济。但如果能选择恰当的时机和对象,适度保护本国新兴产业、促进就业,从长远来看可能反而更有利。</span></p><p><span leaf="">关税是一把双刃剑,不能一刀切地判定好坏。当特朗普政府提出要对加拿大、墨西哥乃至所有进口商品加征关税时,许多经济学者都表示反对。著名经济学家克鲁格曼认为,这种大规模无差别征税会严重打击美国经济,&quot;完全没有道理&quot;。不过他也承认,自己只能从经济学角度分析,特朗普总统可能还有其他非经济方面的考量。这一点就不好评价了。</span></p><p><span leaf="">通过以上分析,我们了解了关税实施后的受益方和受损方。接下来让我们研究国家之间关于关税的博弈策略。这让我想到博弈论中的经典案例——囚徒困境。贸易问题与之极其相似。</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们建立一个简单模型:假设有A国和B国,各自可以选择贸易开放或贸易保护。这样就会出现四种情况:双方都开放、双方都保护、A开放B保护、A保护B开放。</span></p><p><span leaf="">在这个模型中,我们假设不同情况下的收益如下:双方都开放时各得3分,都保护时各负3分。如果一方开放另一方保护,保护方得8分,开放方负5分。这个设定很合理:首先,双方开放比双方保护更好;其次,如果关税政策得当且对方不反击,确实能提高本国收益;最后,从总体收益看,双方开放优于单方开放,单方开放又优于双方保护。</span></p><p><span leaf="">分析这两国的策略后发现,从整体收益角度看,他们往往会选择最糟糕的结果。这就是所谓的&quot;关税困境&quot;。那该如何破解呢?</span></p><p><span leaf="">常见的解决方法有两种,其中最经典的是通过重复博弈。国际贸易不是一锤子买卖,而是长期的重复博弈。在重复博弈中,A国可以采取这样的策略:先开放,但警告对方如果背信弃义就立即反击。这样一来,双方都会避免采取保护措施。当然,单纯开放也未必是好选择。</span></p><p><span leaf="">结果如何呢?许多小国积极配合,大力发展自由贸易。但美国和德国却选择了不同的道路:他们继续保护本国的农业和制造业,最终在20世纪超越了英国。这其中也有英国的&quot;神助攻&quot;——他们采取的过度开放贸易政策。</span></p><p><span leaf="">英国的衰落固然有诸多原因,但在贸易上未能采取对等措施、以牙还牙,确实是重要因素之一。</span></p><p><span leaf="">由此可见,在大国博弈中,自由贸易固然重要,但单方面开放而不对贸易制裁进行反制,是不明智的选择。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这个观点虽然听起来有些绝对,但确实一针见血。</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们深入思考这个观点。</span></p><p><span leaf="">在许多复杂体系中,&quot;以牙还牙&quot;策略都证明行之有效。这就像社交互动一样,最佳方式是先展现善意和开放态度,同时让对方明白你不会任人欺负。这种策略的精髓不在于被动等待反击,而在于让对方清楚认识到可能的后果。从理论模型来看,这种方式能促进各方的长期发展。</span></p><p><span leaf="">回到正题,我们刚才提到摆脱关税困境的第一种方法是&quot;以牙还牙&quot;式的多次博弈。</span></p><p><span leaf="">第二种常见方法是建立利益共同体。最典型的例子包括世界贸易组织(WTO)、欧盟这样的紧密联盟,以及美国、加拿大、墨西哥之间的自由贸易协定。</span></p><p><span leaf="">值得注意的是,WTO拥有166个成员国,覆盖全球98%以上的贸易量。通过这样的共同体,各国能最大化共同利益,避免陷入囚徒困境。</span></p><p><span leaf="">WTO设有仲裁委员会来处理违规行为并实施处罚。当某些国家不遵守裁决时,其他成员国可以采取&quot;以牙还牙&quot;策略——允许受影响的国家实施同等程度的报复性关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这方面最著名的案例是美国和欧盟之间持续近20年的飞机补贴争端。</span></p><p><span leaf="">2004年,美国向WTO投诉欧洲对空客的不公平补贴,欧盟随即反诉美国对波音也存在补贴。WTO认定双方都有问题并要求停止补贴,但两边都不服从裁决。最终,WTO允许双方互相实施报复性关税。2019年,WTO裁定欧盟确实对空客有不正当补贴,允许美国每年对欧盟商品征收75亿美元关税;同时认定美国对波音的补贴行为,允许欧盟每年征收40亿美元关税。经过互相制裁后,双方于2020年终于愿意谈判,同意将关税战暂停5年协商。</span></p><p><span leaf="">另一个典型案例是美加之间最持久、规模最大的木材贸易争端。1982年起,美国指控加拿大对木材进行不正当补贴并实施反倾销制裁。加拿大否认指控,双方上诉WTO。WTO认定美国的反倾销措施不合理,允许加拿大实施报复性关税,最终双方达成和解,美国降低了关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">虽然类似的贸易争端还有许多,但总的来说,&quot;以牙还牙&quot;和建立共同体这两大策略在过去近百年间有效推动了全球贸易发展,降低了整体关税水平。</span></p><p><span leaf="">好,我们已经了解了关税的优缺点,也分析了各国之间的博弈策略。</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们回顾全球300年的贸易进程,以加深理解。</span></p><p><span leaf="">19世纪之前,全球化自由贸易的概念尚未形成。当时的国际贸易主要是英国与其全球殖民地之间的往来,本质上是一种占领和剥削,而非合作。</span></p><p><span leaf="">值得注意的是,英国对外也奉行贸易保护主义,尤其是对羊毛制品。他们对制成品征收50%的平均关税,这在当时的欧洲是最高的。</span></p><p><span leaf="">到了19世纪,一位关键人物出现了——英国经济学家大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo,注意,不是李嘉诚)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">1867至1900年间,贸易保护政策帮助美国的钢铁产量增长了500多倍,推动整体制造业飞速发展,最终使美国超越了英国。</span></p><p><span leaf="">由此可见,英国的策略只看到了贸易开放的好处,李嘉图可能忽略了一个重要观点:贸易开放需要双方都开放才有意义。这为后来一位学者的名言埋下了伏笔。</span></p><p><span leaf="">单向开放而不对制裁进行反制是不明智的。</span></p><p><span leaf="">进入20世纪后,第一次世界大战及随后的大萧条引发了全球贸易保护主义浪潮。1930年,美国颁布了著名的《斯姆特-霍利关税法》,将超过2万种商品的关税提高了26%。</span></p><p><span leaf="">与16世纪不同的是,这次欧洲选择了反击,采取以牙还牙的高关税政策。全球贸易随即陷入寒冬:美国的进出口减少了三分之二,全球出口额跌回到了百年前的水平,标志着第一次全球化浪潮的终结。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这段贸易保护主义时期不仅加深并延长了美国的经济衰退,还导致了美国乃至全球失业率攀升。然而从另一角度看,这个惨痛教训为日后第二次全球化浪潮的兴起奠定了基础。</span></p><p><span leaf="">二战结束后,各国认识到了此前20年贸易保护主义的危害。在美国主导下,各国开始谈判,并于1947年签订了《关税与贸易总协定》——这个协定后来发展成为了世界贸易组织(WTO)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">全球关税水平随之持续走低:从1947年的22%降至1960年代的15%,到2000年更降至5%。同时,出口占全球GDP的比例在60年间从5%攀升至25%。这一变化推动了全球GDP的快速增长,使世界步入全球化的黄金时代。</span></p><p><span leaf="">近10年来,英国脱欧、美国的一系列高关税政策以及中美贸易战,都预示着新一轮贸易保护主义正在兴起。疫情后,各国更掀起了经济民族主义浪潮,越发强调产业保护和国产化。</span></p><p><span leaf="">通过以上分析,我们探讨了关税的利弊和各国的应对策略。从长期博弈的角度看,面对贸易制裁,国家必须敢于还击,坚持以牙还牙的原则。这种保护主义情绪一旦形成,具有强烈的传染性,短期内难以消退。</span></p><p><span leaf="">近年来,WTO面临前所未有的危机,其争端解决机制正在逐渐瘫痪。正如&quot;天下大势,分久必合,合久必分&quot;,全球贸易很可能将进入一段较长的逆全球化时期。</span></p><p><span leaf="">那么,为什么美国现在又要发起贸易战呢?</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们看一个有力的数据图表——过去35年全球各国的经常账户差额。在这个图中,上方显示顺差国家,下方是逆差国家。我们特别标出了美国、中国、德国、日本和石油输出国,一个显著特点跃然纸上:</span></p><p><span leaf="">美国一己之力撑起了全球贸易逆差的大旗,成为了全球最大的消费市场,可以说是世界上&quot;最能买&quot;的国家。这也是特朗普多次强调要减少美国贸易逆差的原因。他上任后的首要任务就是发起贸易战,对美国三大贸易伙伴——加拿大、墨西哥和中国加征关税。</span></p><p><span leaf="">虽然官方给出的理由是边境安全、毒品和移民问题,但普遍认为,这与美国巨大的贸易逆差密切相关。从历史上看,美国自1977年开始的贸易逆差持续扩大,这种现象在全球是独一无二的。</span></p><p><span leaf="">为什么美国会积累如此巨大的贸易逆差?为什么只有美国能承受这么大的贸易逆差?贸易逆差真的就是坏事吗?这些问题比我们想象的更复杂,让我们深入探讨。</span></p><p><span leaf="">贸易逆差其实很容易理解:一个国家的进口总额大于出口总额,简单说就是买得比卖得多。贸易逆差的形成,从最基本的角度看,不外乎是进口太多或出口太少。</span></p><p><span leaf="">通过基础的公式推导,我们可以得出一个重要结论:一个国家的贸易差额等于总储蓄减去总投资。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这里需要解释一下储蓄和投资的定义,它与我们日常理解有所不同。在经济学中,总储蓄指一年的收入减去消费。举个例子:如果你今年收入10万,消费6万,剩下的4万无论是存银行、买理财还是买股票,都属于储蓄。值得注意的是,虽然购买理财产品在日常中被称为&quot;投资&quot;,但在这个概念里它其实是储蓄。</span></p><p><span leaf="">基于这个逻辑,有人认为美国贸易逆差源于储蓄率过低——美国人过度消费,本土市场无法满足如此庞大的需求,只能依赖进口,从而导致贸易逆差。这种说法听起来很有道理,对吧?</span></p><p><span leaf="">诺贝尔奖得主萨伊古斯就建议特朗普:要扭转美国贸易逆差,应该鼓励民众减少消费、增加储蓄,这样贸易逆差自然会下降。</span></p><p><span leaf="">另一种解释则关注政府行为:美国政府支出过大,储蓄率过低。按这种观点,政府应该削减开支,减少举债,贸易逆差就会随之下降。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这些解释虽然都很有道理,但我认为它们并非美国长期贸易逆差的根本原因。这些分析都忽略了一个决定性因素。让我用一个直观的例子来说明汇率对贸易的影响:</span></p><p><span leaf="">当汇率上升时,进口增加而出口减少,导致贸易逆差扩大。反之,汇率下降会促进出口、抑制进口,带来贸易顺差。</span></p><p><span leaf="">汇率最神奇之处在于,它不仅是各国货币间的转换器,还是一个精密的自动调节装置。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这是什么意思呢?当出现持续的贸易不平衡时,汇率会通过升值或贬值自动调节贸易平衡。举个例子:如果奶茶国持续进口商品,需要用美元支付,就会不断买入美元、卖出奶币。这会导致奶币面临贬值压力。随着奶币贬值,出口增加而进口减少,最终达到贸易平衡,贬值压力也随之消失。</span></p><p><span leaf="">在80年代,美国实行紧缩性货币政策和扩张性财政政策,导致美元大幅升值。这严重损害了美国的出口竞争力,特别是在面对日本汽车和电子产品时。</span></p><p><span leaf="">里根总统随后半开玩笑半认真地找到日本、法国、西德和英国说:&quot;各位过得不错啊,能否调整一下你们的汇率,让美元贬值,帮助我们提升出口,减少一下贸易逆差?&quot;这个策略确实奏效了。</span></p><p><span leaf="">八年后,美国的贸易逆差显著收缩,这正是美元贬值带来的结果。</span></p><p><span leaf="">需要强调的是,虽然广场协议作为外部干预并非完全成功,还带来了诸多副作用,但这个话题我们今天暂且不谈。</span></p><p><span leaf="">从汇率对贸易的影响来看,这确实是个很好的例证。此后,美国很少直接干预汇率市场,即便干预,规模也相当有限。</span></p><p><span leaf="">然而到了1995年之后,美国的贸易逆差反而不断扩大。这表明美国持续的贸易逆差并非源于政府或市场抬高美元汇率。</span></p><p><span leaf="">让我们深入问题的核心。一个国家的对外往来主要涉及三大账户:经常账户、资本账户和金融账户。这三者构成了国家的整体国际收支(Balance of Payment)。</span></p><p><span leaf="">经常账户主要由贸易构成,同时包括投资收入、利息支付和工资等。因此,贸易顺差/逆差常被等同于经常账户顺差/逆差。</span></p><p><span leaf="">资本账户和金融账户虽然较少被提及,却同样举足轻重。它们涵盖所有金融资产、金融负债、跨境投资,以及广为人知的FDI(外商直接投资)。比如,各国的银行、保险公司、基金购买美股美债,或各国央行购买美债,都属于金融账户范畴。</span></p><p><span leaf="">对大多数国家而言,国际收支主要体现在经常账户的贸易资金流动。但美国是个例外,它的资本账户和金融账户(尤其是后者)的资金流动更为活跃。</span></p><p><span leaf="">对美国而言,金融账户和资本账户比经常账户更具决定性——这是我们必须明确的关键。</span></p><p><span leaf="">把这三个账户综合来看,美国的整体国际收支接近平衡。在内部结构上,它长期保持着&quot;经常项目逆差、金融和资本项目顺差&quot;的组合模式——简单说,全球投资者购买美元资产,而美国用这些美元购买外国商品。</span></p><p><span leaf="">美国持续半个世纪的贸易逆差,主要源于持续不断的资本流入推高了美元汇率。来自全球的大量资金涌入美国,购买美国的国债、公司债和股票,为美国的企业和政府提供了充足的投资和支出资本。</span></p><p><span leaf="">从这个角度看,美国的处境很微妙,尤其是华尔街和互联网公司,当然还包括美国政府。尽管美国的媒体和政客常常只强调商品贸易。</span></p><p><span leaf="">那么,为什么会有如此庞大的资金流向美国呢?有人说这是因为美国经济实力强、投资机会多,互联网和金融巨头都在美国。这个说法没错,但最关键的原因是美元的世界货币地位。</span></p><p><span leaf="">不只是各国央行,连保险公司、银行、基金等机构也都倾向于持有美元,因为美元是世界货币。全球大多数投资标的都用美元计价,所以各国用港元、日元、欧元赚到的钱,最终很大一部分都会转换成美元资产。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这就形成了一个持续循环:金融账户顺差、经常账户逆差的&quot;不平衡的平衡&quot;。用美联储的话来总结这个逻辑链:当美国可以通过印钞或发行债券从世界市场购买商品时,贸易逆差就成为必然。</span></p><p><span leaf="">以美元作为主要世界储备货币、以美国政府债券作为最受追捧的价值储存工具的现行货币体系,正是美国持续贸易逆差的根本原因。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这不是我一个人的观点,这是普遍认可的事实,其实也没有好坏对错之分。</span></p><p><span leaf="">有些媒体和政治家会片面解读这种模式。我希望通过今天的分析,大家能看清他们背后的逻辑。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这就是我们刚才讨论的特里芬难题(特里芬悖论)。特里芬是一位著名经济学家,他在1960年代就预见到:发行国际货币的国家必然会出现贸易逆差。在当时的金本位制下,他准确预言了美国今天面临的持续贸易逆差。</span></p><p><span leaf="">说到贸易逆差,许多人认为这是个非常糟糕、对经济有害的现象。他们觉得贸易逆差意味着钱都流向了外国,仿佛在经济上输给了别人。</span></p><p><span leaf="">但贸易逆差真的如此可怕吗?</span></p><p><span leaf="">实际上,大多数学者并不认为贸易逆差必然有害,但也不能说它就是好事。如果要给出一个准确的答案,那就是经济学家最常用的说法:具体情况具体分析。</span></p><p><span leaf="">通过今天的分析,相信你已经明白,贸易逆差只是一个经济现象、一个表征。评估一个国家的经济状况,关键在于理解这个现象背后的原因。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这就像一个人心跳加快——你能仅凭这一点就判断他不健康吗?如果是运动后或者情绪激动导致的心跳加快,这是正常现象。但如果是因为心肌炎或心律不齐,那就需要及时就医。</span></p><p><span leaf="">贸易逆差也是如此。当一个国家投资需求和消费需求旺盛时,出现贸易逆差是很自然的。比如澳大利亚,由于持续有大量投资需求,几十年来一直保持着经常账户逆差。</span></p><p><span leaf="">但也有一些贸易逆差确实值得警惕,比如某些国家因经济危机而大量举借外债,导致货币濒临崩溃,汇率持续下跌。</span></p><p><span leaf="">这些国家陷入严重的贸易逆差,甚至出现物资短缺。由此可见,贸易逆差既可能出现在经济健康的国家,也可能发生在经济困境中的国家。这就是为什么经济学家总强调要具体分析。</span></p><p><span leaf="">最后,放上2024年中国和美国在</span><strong><span leaf="">经常账户、资本账户和金融账户</span></strong><span leaf="">的核心数据,大家自行对比。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="251" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="100037691" data-ratio="0.43425925925925923" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" type="block" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkYOvoCibsVhTsC2CTX5EhG5aWV7hEQlM8ickicRw3YhMcw0vqo4PkYia3QFOsibzFQ02ODHpGTeJH0oOQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="251" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="100037692" data-ratio="0.43333333333333335" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" type="block" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkYOvoCibsVhTsC2CTX5EhG5zPrTO68BY66BSEY8WPNVWmD71AJncC4CgTNmibp0ibTbjg5q75tMDsHw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-backh="234" data-backw="578" data-imgfileid="100037693" data-ratio="0.40555555555555556" data-s="300,640" data-type="png" data-w="1080" style="width: 100%;height: auto !important;" type="block" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/VXjHib6YROwkYOvoCibsVhTsC2CTX5EhG59AeWyp54u3mRDgPaibrgFKBYTj4jTLndPmIyfC7gP4ZW7ECeUfeWS0A/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" /></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

← 返回观点全库