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全球股债性价比全景:一把尺子量完A股到美股

发布于 2026-05-08

<section nodeleaf=""><iframe data-src="https://mp.weixin.qq.com/mp/readtemplate?t=pages/video_player_tmpl&amp;action=mpvideo&amp;auto=0&amp;vid=wxv_4491067275189534722" data-mpvid="wxv_4491067275189534722" data-vidtype="2" data-cover="http%3A%2F%2Fmmbiz.qpic.cn%2Fsz_mmbiz_jpg%2F9alt9LFC5gzgBtePuqPRtFNibCmpD4ibffppYdwpsVEF7hJMlVP42XY7pichgLalyaribeyLeiavkuqx4jial1s2vBQo7KkKeAVb9Ec1Swms89hYw%2F0%3Fwx_fmt%3Djpeg" data-ratio="1.7777777777777777" data-w="1280" class="video_iframe rich_pages"></iframe></section><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="5"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">2026年一季度落幕。A股上市公司一共</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">赚了1.60万亿</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。到了3月底,它们的总市值挂在</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">108.6万亿</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="6"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">两个数字往那儿一放,问题就自己跳出来了——现在的A股,到底是贵了,还是便宜了?</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="8"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">最直接的做法,是把股票的"赚钱能力"和债券的"无风险收益"放在同一杆秤上称一称。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="9"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">本文只用一把极简的尺子:</span></span></p><blockquote style="content-visibility: auto;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;font-weight: 400;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span leaf="">年化盈利收益率 = 一季度净利润 × 4 ÷ 总市值</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;font-weight: 400;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span leaf="">风险溢价 = 年化盈利收益率 − 10年期国债收益率</span></strong></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="11"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这把尺子粗糙,但公平。它透明、可比、三秒钟算完。它能给不同市场、不同板块同一个"估值温度计"。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="12"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">当然,它也有显而易见的缺陷:一季度×4会吃掉季节性波动、吃掉增长曲线的差异、吃掉盈利本身的动态变化。但这些局限性,我们会在后面逐一拆解——知道一把尺子量不准什么,和知道它能量出什么,同样重要。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="14"><span leaf="">第一部分:方法论——把股票当成一张"永续债券"</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="15"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">在进入数据之前,先厘清逻辑。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="16"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">年化盈利收益率的本质,是把整个市场看作一只"永续债券"。</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">它的"票息"就是上市公司的盈利。如果你按当前市值把整个市场买下来,你每年能拿到多少"回报"?这个数字的倒数,就是市场整体的市盈率。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="17"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">然后把这只"股票债券"的收益率,和真正的10年期国债放在一起比。问题就变成了:</span></span></p><blockquote style="content-visibility: auto;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;font-weight: 400;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span leaf="">你承担了股票的波动风险,到底多赚了多少?</span></strong></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="19"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这个"多赚的部分",就是</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">风险溢价</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。它越高,股票越有性价比;它被压缩到零甚至为负,你就得问问自己——我为什么要扛着波动,去拿一份不如国债的回报?</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="20"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">截至2026年4月底:</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="21"><span leaf="">中国10年期国债收益率:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">1.75%</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="22"><span leaf="">美国10年期国债收益率:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">4.43%</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="23"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这两个数字,是各自市场股债比较的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">地平面</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="25"><span leaf="">第二部分:A股整体——4.14%的缓冲垫,有多厚?</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="26"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">先算A股大盘。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="27"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">5.89%的年化盈利收益率,对应隐含市盈率约17倍。与1.75%的国债收益率之间,隔着</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">414个基点</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">的安全垫。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="28"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">A股的核心优势不在分子端,而在分母端。</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">1.75%的国债收益率,为股票估值提供了一层天然的缓冲。即便盈利出现波动,只要国债收益率不陡峭上行,股票的相对吸引力就很难被根本性动摇。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="29"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">做个极端情景的推演:在净利润不变的假设下,A股总市值需要膨胀到</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">约365.7万亿</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">(即再涨237%),年化盈利收益率才会被压缩到与国债收益率持平。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="30"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">当然,这是一个理论上的天花板。现实世界中,当风险溢价压缩到历史低位时,资金自己就会开始犹豫——远不用等到那一天。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="32"><span leaf="">第三部分:标普500——当风险溢价归零</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="33"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">把同一把尺子伸向大洋彼岸,画面急剧翻转。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="34"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">2026年一季度,标普500净利润预估约</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">6293亿美元</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">(FactSet口径),总市值约</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">57.62万亿美元</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="35"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">美股的盈利收益率,已经略微低于国债收益率。</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">风险溢价出现约6个基点的负值。即便采用LSEG更高的盈利口径(对应约4.75%的收益率),股债差值也只剩30个基点——在统计学上几乎可以忽略不计。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="36"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这不是一个"贵不贵"的问题,而是一个</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">定价逻辑上的根本性翻转</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="37"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">A股享受的是"高盈利收益率 + 低国债收益率"的双重加持;美股面对的是"尚可的盈利收益率 + 高企的国债收益率"的正面挤压。在4.43%的无风险收益面前,标普500提供的额外补偿,</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">几乎为零</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="38"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">更致命的是盈利修正的不确定性。FactSet的6293亿美元只是季初预估,随着超过60%的成分公司公布业绩,实际利润可能上修到约6800亿美元。即便用这个乐观数字重新算一遍,年化盈利收益率也只提升到4.72%,股债差值依然不到30个基点——改变不了"昂贵区间"的定性判断。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="39"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">还有一个风险被平均数据掩盖了:</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">美股的头部集中度。</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">仅Alphabet一家公司,一季度净利润就飙升81%。一旦大型科技股的盈利增速踩刹车,当前估值几乎没有缓冲空间。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="41"><span leaf="">第四部分:A股解剖——5.89%的平均值,藏着一个"平行宇宙"</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="42"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">A股整体5.89%的年化盈利收益率看起来很健康。但这个平均值,把几个完全不同的世界揉在了一起。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="43"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">用同样的方法,拆开来看:</span></span></p><table style="border-spacing: 0px;text-align: center;font-size: 14px;display: block;overflow: auto hidden;max-width: 100%;border-collapse: separate;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);margin-top: 12px;margin-bottom: 8px;content-visibility: auto;font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><thead><tr><th style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;font-weight: 500;white-space: nowrap;min-width: 2.5em;border-top-left-radius: 8px;text-align: left;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">板块</span></section></th><th style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;font-weight: 500;white-space: nowrap;min-width: 2.5em;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">Q1净利润</span></section></th><th style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;font-weight: 500;white-space: nowrap;min-width: 2.5em;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">总市值</span></section></th><th style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;font-weight: 500;white-space: nowrap;min-width: 2.5em;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">年化收益率</span></section></th><th style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;font-weight: 500;white-space: nowrap;min-width: 2.5em;border-top-right-radius: 8px;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">风险溢价</span></section></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">上证主板</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">12,303亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">53.59万亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">9.18%</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">+7.43%</span></strong></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">深证主板</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">2,476亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">26.16万亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">3.79%</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">+2.04%</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">创业板</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">884亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">19.07万亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">1.86%</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">+0.11%</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">科创板</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">203亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">10.36万亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">0.78%</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">−0.97%</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">北交所</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">30亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">0.80万亿</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">1.53%</span></section></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><section style="font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><span leaf="">−0.22%</span></section></td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;border-bottom-left-radius: 8px;text-align: left;"><strong><span leaf="">A股整体</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">1.60万亿</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">108.6万亿</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">5.89%</span></strong></td><td style="padding: 10px 12px;border-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.3);border-style: solid;border-width: 1px;border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch;border-bottom-right-radius: 8px;text-align: center;"><strong><span leaf="">+4.14%</span></strong></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="45"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">9.18% 和 0.78% 之间,差了将近</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">12倍</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。这不是价格的分化,这是</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">定价逻辑的分裂</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="47"><span leaf="">4.1 上证主板:9.18%——定海神针</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="48"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">上证主板是五个板块中股债性价比最"离谱"的一个——年化盈利收益率9.18%,对应隐含市盈率不到11倍。风险溢价高达743个基点,几乎是其他板块的总和。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="49"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这个数字的背后,是上证主板独特的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">行业基因</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。银行、石油石化、保险、煤炭——这些"利润机器"聚集于此。仅银行一个行业,就贡献了A股全市场利润的近四成。一季度上证主板净利润12,303亿,占全市场1.60万亿的77%。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="50"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">极低的估值、庞大的利润体量、稳定的分红传统——三者叠加,使上证主板成为A股的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">估值之锚</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。在这个板块上,股债性价比模型发出的信号最明确:即便考虑坏账风险、息差收窄等不利因素,当前价格提供的安全边际,也相当充裕。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="52"><span leaf="">4.2 深证主板:3.79%——合理,但没有便宜可占</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="53"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">深证主板的年化盈利收益率为3.79%,高于国债约204个基点。性价比尚可,但与上证主板相比,优势已经大幅收窄。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="54"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">2,476亿净利润的背后,是消费、地产、制造业等</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">周期属性较强的行业</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。利润体量和稳定性都远不及沪市主板。3.79%的收益率对应隐含市盈率约26倍——不高不低,恰好卡在"合理区间"。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="55"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">对这个板块,框架传递的信息是:</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">估值合理,但没有显著的便宜可占。</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">未来的走势更多取决于盈利增长能否兑现,而非估值修复的空间。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="57"><span leaf="">4.3 创业板:1.86%——站在临界点上的高增长博弈</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="58"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">创业板的数据是整个分析中最"惊险"的:年化盈利收益率1.86%,仅比1.75%的国债收益率高出</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">11个基点</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="59"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">以这个静态模型衡量,创业板整体已经</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">基本不再提供超额股债性价比</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。风险溢价几乎消失。你持有创业板股票所承担的波动,在当期盈利回报上,几乎没有得到任何补偿。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="60"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">但——这里必须引入一个至关重要的修正视角:增长。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="61"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">创业板一季度净利润同比增速高达</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">21.75%</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">,远超A股整体6.76%的水平。如果这个增速在未来三个季度得以维持甚至加速,那么"一季度×4"的简单年化,就会系统性地低估真实盈利能力。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="62"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这就引出了一个核心判断:</span></span></p><blockquote style="content-visibility: auto;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 15px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;"><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;font-weight: 400;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span leaf="">创业板的股债吸引力,完全取决于高增长的持续性。</span></strong></p></blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="64"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">如果21.75%的增速是一个新趋势的起点,当前价格尚属合理;如果增速回落到个位数,这个框架会立即发出高估警示。在这个板块上,没有"静态便宜"的保护——每一次买入,本质上都是对未来的一次投票。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="66"><span leaf="">4.4 科创板:0.78%——"静态最差、动态最好"的不对称博弈</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="67"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">科创板是五大板块中唯一出现</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">深度负风险溢价</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">的板块。0.78%的年化收益率,比1.75%的国债低了将近1个百分点。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="68"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">如果只看这个静态数字,科创板似乎完全不值得配置。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="69"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">但——</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">这恰恰暴露了"一季度×4"方法的最大盲区。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="70"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">科创板一季度净利润同比增速高达</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">209%</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。一年前的2025年一季度,科创板净利润仅约7亿元;今年跃升至203亿元。这不是线性增长,这是</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">爆发式爬坡</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="71"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">用趋势外推法修正:假设后续三个季度维持一季度的盈利能力,科创板全年动态净利润可达约812亿元,对应的年化盈利收益率将升至</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">7.84%</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">——一跃成为A股最具吸引力的板块之一。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="72"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">科创板的真实处境,悬在两种极端之间:</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="73"><span leaf="">静态来看:极其脆弱,几乎没有安全边际</span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="75"><span leaf="">动态来看:如果高增长延续,潜在回报极为丰厚</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="77"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这是一个</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">高度不对称的收益分布</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。它的走向,完全取决于半导体周期、创新药管线兑现、国产替代等结构性趋势的持续力度。对有能力判断产业景气度的投资者来说,这种"静态差、动态好"的组合,恰恰可能意味着机会。但对于缺乏判断能力的投资者,静态的负风险溢价,是一个不应忽视的警告信号。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h2 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="79"><span leaf="">4.5 北交所:1.53%——小样本下的失真读数</span></h2><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="80"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">北交所年化盈利收益率1.53%,轻微低于国债收益率。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="81"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">但坦率地说,这个框架对北交所</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">几乎不适用</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。整体净利润仅30.6亿元,同比下降约15%,303家公司的总规模尚处于"小而波动大"的阶段。任何一个单一公司的利润异动,都可能显著改变整体读数。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="82"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">北交所更适合用微观视角自下而上地考察,而非用宏观股债模型一概而论。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="84"><span leaf="">第五部分:横切一刀——把六张图叠在一起看</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="85"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">把A股整体、标普500、以及五大板块的年化盈利收益率放在同一张坐标系里,市场的"级差"一目了然。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="86"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">A股内部:同一个市场,两个世界</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="87"><span leaf="">上证主板9.18% vs 科创板0.78%——相差超过8个百分点</span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="88"><span leaf="">一边是"极具性价比"的核心资产,一边是"静态极昂贵"的未来赌注</span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="89"><span leaf="">这不是一个均质的市场,这是一个<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">估值极度撕裂的市场</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="90"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">跨市场:A股vs美股的本质差异</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="91"><span leaf="">A股整体风险溢价:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">414个基点</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="92"><span leaf="">标普500风险溢价:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">约等于零(甚至为负)</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="93"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这种差异的根源不在盈利端——两者的一季度利润都可圈可点。</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">根子在国债收益率端:中国1.75% vs 美国4.43%。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="94"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">A股的股债性价比优势,本质上是中国低利率环境的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">映射</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。如果中国国债收益率因经济复苏而上行,A股的相对吸引力将被显著削弱。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="95"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">一个值得玩味的反差:</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="96"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">上证主板的年化盈利收益率(9.18%),是美国10年期国债收益率(4.43%)的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">两倍有余</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。这或许可以部分解释,为什么在全球资产配置者眼中,某些中国核心资产开始显得"便宜得难以忽视"——尽管这种跨市场比较还需要考虑汇率、地缘政治风险、治理溢价等复杂因素,不能仅凭数字高低做决策。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="98"><span leaf="">第六部分:框架的边界——这把尺子量不准什么</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="99"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">一个工具的价值,不仅在于它能告诉你什么,也在于它</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">承认自己不知道什么</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="100"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">第一,"一季度×4"对高增长板块的系统性低估。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="101"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这一点在科创板上表现得淋漓尽致。当一个板块的利润在一年内增长了200%,用一季度数字简单乘以四,等于假设未来三个季度零增长——这显然与基本面现实严重脱节。对于利润处于爆发爬坡阶段的创业板成分股,失真度同样较高。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="102"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">第二,"一季度×4"对强周期板块的季节性误判。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="103"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">某些行业的利润分布天然不均衡。如果一季度恰逢淡季(如部分消费、建筑行业),年化结果会显著低估全年利润;反之亦然。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="104"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">第三,利润与市值的口径错位。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="105"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">总市值是时点数据(3月31日),净利润是期间数据(一至三月)。对于近年来快速扩容的板块(如科创板、北交所),新纳入公司的市值已被计入分母,但其完整的一季度利润可能尚未充分反映在分子中——导致收益率的系统性低估。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="106"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">第四,国债收益率的时变性。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="107"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">本文采用了1.75%的国债收益率。但无风险利率本身是一个动态变量。如果下半年经济复苏加速推动国债收益率上行,所有风险溢价的计算都需要重新审视。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="108"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">第五,这个框架只关心"静态性价比",不关心"动态增长"。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="109"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">股债比较本质上是一张静止的快照。它回答的是"现在便宜还是贵",而非"未来会变得更好还是更差"。对于成长型投资者而言,后者往往比前者重要得多。本文的分析不应被理解为"主板优于科创板"的价值判断,而应被视为对各个板块当前估值状态的</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">客观描述</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h1 style="color: rgba(42, 174, 103, 1);text-align: center;font-size: 20px;font-weight: 500;line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 12px;" data-layout-id="111"><span leaf="">结语:一个坐标,而非一个答案</span></h1><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="112"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">回到最初的问题:当前A股,到底贵不贵?</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="113"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这把简单的尺子给出的答案是:</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">整体不贵,但内部极度分化。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="114"><span leaf="">上证主板提供了历史级别的估值保护</span></p><p style="text-align: start;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="115"><span leaf="">科创板和创业板的价格,已几乎完全定价了未来的高增长预期——一旦增速踩空,缓冲空间十分有限</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="116"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">跨市场来看,A股相对美股的股债性价比优势明显——但这种优势根植于中美利率环境的巨大差异,是</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">脆弱的、可变的</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">。国债收益率的上行,或盈利增速的放缓,都能迅速改写当前的舒适画面。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="117"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">这个框架的真正价值,不在于给出"买还是卖"的指令。它只是一个</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">参照系</span><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">——让你知道自己正在为增长支付什么价格,知道无风险收益的替代成本是多少,知道不同板块的安全边际大致分布在什么区间。</span></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;font-size: 17px;font-weight: 400;color: rgba(0,0,0,0.9);line-height: 1.8;margin-bottom: 24px;" data-layout-id="118"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);">在这个坐标下,每个人需要用自己的判断——关于增长的持续性,关于利率的走向,关于风险的承受能力——去找到属于自己的那个位置。</span></span></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 17px;line-height: 1.8;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;font-weight: 400;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong><span leaf="">理解这些,不是为了让你变得更焦虑。而是让你在市场的喧嚣中,保持一份清醒的独立思考。知道自己在做什么,知道自己没在做什么。</span></strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;font-size: 14px;line-height: 24.5px;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.86);text-align: justify;word-break: break-all;content-visibility: auto;" data-pm-slice="2 2 [&quot;blockquote&quot;,{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;normal&quot;,&quot;editId&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;nickname&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;authorName&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;from&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;style&quot;:&quot;margin-top: 0px !important; content-visibility: auto; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \&quot;segoe ui\&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;&quot;}]"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">⚠️&nbsp;</span></span><strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">免责声明</span></span></strong><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">:本报告基于公开数据与券商研报综述,不构成投资建议。股市有风险,投资须谨慎。</span></span></p><hr style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.08);margin: 16px 0px;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;segoe ui&quot;, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><p data-layout-id="167" data-pm-slice="0 0 []" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;clear: both;min-height: 1em;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;font-size: 17px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: 0.544px;orphans: 2;text-align: justify;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: 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