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全球资产负债表“终极清算”警报：你看到的反弹，是聪明钱的套现窗口

发布于 2026-03-28

<p></p><section><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">看着周一美股那</span></span><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">2.2%的涨幅和油价14%的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">跳水，我仿佛看到了华尔街那群穿着定制西装的“金融巨婴”们，在听到主人的哨声后整齐划一地摇尾巴。查理·芒格曾说：“</span></span></font></section><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">如果你想知道事情为什么发生，就去看背后的激励机制。</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">”</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><p></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">华尔街为什么要疯狂解析特朗普那几句前后矛盾、甚至被伊朗光速打脸的废话？因为他们</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">怕死</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">，更因为他们需要通过</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“制造共识”来掩护自己在那台巨大的“中东绞肉机”里调仓。所谓的“TACO交易”（特朗普总会退缩），本质上是一群赌徒在毒瘾发作时，把庄家的一个喷嚏幻想成发牌的信号。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">所谓的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“口头安抚”，不过是给一个癌症晚期的病人打了一针吗啡。你们这群人，竟然还在讨论“什么时候结束战争”，而我看到的，是</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">全球信用体系的逻辑底层正在发生不可逆的坍塌</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">华尔街热衷于</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“TACO交易”，是因为在过去十年里，这种“路径依赖”给了他们丰厚的回报。每当市场大跌，白宫就会向美联储或关税政策施压，这种“奖励超级反应倾向”让交易员像巴甫洛夫的狗一样产生了条件反射。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">但这一次，激励机制变了。特朗普面临的是中期选举的生存压力（激励），而伊朗手里握着霍尔木兹海峡的阀门（惩罚）。特朗普的反复无常不是为了</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“救市”，而是为了在“通胀炸弹”和“选票流失”之间寻找一个不存在的平衡点。</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">当一个人的信用在</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">5分钟内被对手方（伊朗）公然处决，你所谓的“市场信号”不过是一张沾满鲜血的废纸。</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">研报里说</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“油价暴跌缓解了通胀预期”，这简直是财务白痴的逻辑。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">1.</span></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">物理阻断</span></span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">vs&nbsp;</span></span></font></span></b><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">货币幻觉：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">关税可以随笔一挥取消，但被封锁的霍尔木兹海峡需要物理上的清障。实体经济的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“宏观温差”在于：华尔街在买入电子盘上的标普500，而实体企业的首席财务官正在因为能源成本的“长尾效应”而削减2026年的资本开支。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">2.</span></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">资产负债表衰退：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">战争引发的不仅仅是油价波动，而是全球供应链的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“信用紧缩”。当两年期美债收益率单日波动22个基点，这说明</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">流动性溢价已经失控</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">。这不是牛市的起点，这是</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“清算日”的演习。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">别盯着特朗普的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">Truth</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">Social看了，去看看那2.5万亿美元蒸发的债市市值。芒格教导我们要用**“跨学科思维”</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">：在物理学中，当应力超过临界点，结构会发生瞬间崩塌。</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">美债收益率的暴涨（即使周一有所回落）反映了市场对</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“滞胀”的极度恐惧。特朗普可以羞辱鲍威尔，但他无法羞辱</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">因果律</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">**。当通胀预期锚定在战争成本之上时，美联储的降息路径就是死路一条。现在的债市不是在等待特朗普的慈悲，而是在通过“价格暴力”逼迫白宫认清现实——</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">你无法既要战争带来的霸权，又要廉价的按揭贷款利率。</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">现在的分析师还在用</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">DCF（现金流折现模型）给科技股估值，这简直是冷笑话。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">·</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">分母端（折现率）：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">由地缘政治风险溢价驱动的无风险利率正在变得不可预测。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:Symbol;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">·</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">分子端（现金流）：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">所谓的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">AI增长和消费复苏，在“全球经济停摆”的预期下，其逻辑脆弱得像一张湿透的卫生纸。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">我做的压力测试显示：如果霍尔木兹海峡关停超过</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">20天，全球任何非核心资产的“安全边际”都将降为零。周一的反弹，只是在清算前夕，给那些还没来得及撤退的聪明钱（Smart</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">Money）创造的一个**“降维套现窗口”**。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">为什么黄金和美元同时波动？因为市场陷入了</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“避免不一致性倾向”</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">的混乱。投资者既想相信特朗普能搞定一切（社会认同），又被现实的炮火声惊吓（剥夺过敏反应）。当多种心理偏见与宏观的能源短缺叠加，就会产生</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">Lollapalooza效应——一种导致系统性崩溃的极端非线性力量。现在的“反弹”，正是这种效应在彻底崩盘前制造的最后一次伪装。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">在这个</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“周期刺客”横行的时代，如果你还想像以前那样靠“逢低买入”致富，你就是最好的猎物。以下是我的生存法则：</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">1.</span></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">逆向思维：清算你的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“信仰标的”</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">反过来想：如果战争不结束，如果特朗普彻底失去公信力，你的投资组合里有几根骨头是硬的？清仓那些依赖于</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“低通胀、全球化”环境的伪护城河标的。在2026年的大环境下，</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">现金不是垃圾，而是购买</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“由于绝望而被迫折价处理的优质资产”的期权。</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">2.</span></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">跨越温差：下注</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“绝对卡脖子环节”</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><br /></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">放弃那些做应用层、搞商业模式创新的内卷企业。真正的财富将转移到那些</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“即使战争爆发也无法被替代”的环节——能源基建的物理安全、核心国防科技，以及那些已经完成“出海降维打击”、不再依赖单一美元霸权循环的跨国实体。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">3.</span></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">防弹检查清单（交易前必读）：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:&#39;Courier New&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">o</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">激励检查：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">特朗普发言的动机是救经济还是救选票？（结论：救选票，所以他的承诺随时会由于选情变化而反转）。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:&#39;Courier New&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">o</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">心理偏差检查：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">我现在的买入动作，是不是因为受不了隔壁老王在周一反弹中赚了钱？（嫉妒倾向是贫穷的开始）。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="margin-left: 72pt;"><span style="font-family:&#39;Courier New&#39;;mso-fareast-font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span style="mso-list:Ignore;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">o</span></span><span style="font-style: normal;font-variant: normal;font-size-adjust: none;font-kerning: auto;font-optical-sizing: auto;font-feature-settings: normal;font-variation-settings: normal;font-weight: normal;font-stretch: normal;font-size: 7pt;font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"></span></span></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">因果律检查：</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">仅仅靠五天的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“暂停行动”，能否解决过去三周造成的供应链断裂和通胀预期上行？（结论：不能）。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">金融市场从来不是慈善机构，它是</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">人类愚蠢行为的收割机</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">特朗普周一的</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“五分钟表演”，成功地让一大群还没清醒的投资者重新跳进了火坑。这让我想起芒格最喜欢的一句话：</span></span></font></span><b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-weight:bold;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“如果我知道我会死在哪里，我将永远不去那个地方。”</span></span></font></span></b><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></span></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">现在，华尔街的大多数人正欢快地奔向那个名为</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“TACO陷阱”的墓地，并以此为荣。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">财富的转移正在加速，而这种转移往往是从那些</span></span></font><font face="等线"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 17px;">“相信政治承诺”的人手中，流向那些“洞察逻辑硬核”的人手中。</span></span></font></span><span style="mso-spacerun:&#39;yes&#39;;font-family:等线;font-size:12.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p data-pm-slice="2 1 []"><span leaf="">更多深度资讯，请在抖音搜索“禾略财讯”。</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="1" data-imgfileid="100048261" data-ratio="0.4090909090909091" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gzKrQuu7ANTMME2ENj8PgP2heqdbYwO8WJwzhBRpWh2ibN5jFm1LWR0pjlahSZ0YibDLqELW3iaTKLLHHGGvHNvth5Hone5VKgSOA/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="638" type="block"></section><p><span leaf="">想免费体验的:打开浏览器，https://schat.urasr.com</span></p><section style="text-align: center;" nodeleaf=""><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-aistatus="2" data-imgfileid="100048365" data-ratio="0.5625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/9alt9LFC5gyXFiad3BjaYr1yniaAcezicsS1otkBx50C0aVxlj2ID5VBbXT6AC7gGx2IddEXshCSqUO9EmuwiaSbyFVMS5qCXxD9Sl47HsetZtc/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg" data-type="png" data-w="1280" type="block"></section><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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