全球资金流向周报：中国资产重获外资青睐，债市持续吸金

<h4 data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">一、核心数据速览：资金回流新兴市场</span></span><br /><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4 data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">截至8月20日当周，全球金融市场呈现三大特征：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">中国资产重获青睐</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：A股市场净流入11.6亿元（人民币），债券市场净流入22.9亿元，实现股债双吸金</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">债强股弱格局延续</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：全球债券基金净流入234.9亿美元，是股票基金（30.3亿美元）的7.7倍</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">美元资产分化</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：美股基金净流出24.7亿美元，但通胀保护债券（TIPS）净流入15.4亿美元</span></section></li></ol><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（新兴市场股票与债券同步获得资金净流入）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">二、中国市场：外资回流信号明确</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">三大积极变化</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">累计流入转正</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：外资对中国资产的累计净流入自4月2日以来首次转正</span><p><span x-noteelement="excluded" aria-describedby=":r4c:"></span></p></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">配置结构优化</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：</span></section></li><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">沪深300成分股获净买入占比提升至68%</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">国债和政策性金融债占债券买入量的83%</span></section></li></ul><li><strong><span leaf="">离岸人民币走强</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：CNH汇率周涨幅0.7%，创两个月最大单周涨幅</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">行业流向亮点</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">科技板块</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：半导体设备龙头获单周净买入4.2亿元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">新能源板块</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：宁德时代外资持股比例回升至6.8%（上月低点5.9%）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">消费板块</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：白酒龙头外资持仓结束连续11周减持</span></section></li></ul><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（科技与消费板块重获外资青睐）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">三、全球债市：避险需求主导</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">资金追逐三大方向</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">通胀保护债券</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：美国TIPS基金连续6周净流入，累计达98.6亿美元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">新兴市场本币债</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：印尼、墨西哥国债分别获净买入3.2亿/2.8亿美元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">高评级公司债</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：投资级企业债基金周流入量创年内次高</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">关键驱动因素</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">美联储降息预期升温（市场定价9月降息概率升至78%）</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">全球制造业PMI连续3个月低于荣枯线</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">原油价格回落至78美元/桶，缓解通胀压力</span></section></li></ul><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（通胀挂钩债券占比提升至总流入量的32%）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">四、股市分化：科技股承压</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">区域表现冰火两重天</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">美股</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：科技板块净流出14.2亿美元（英伟达单周减持3.1亿美元）</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">欧股</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：德国DAX成分股遭减持5.7亿美元，汽车股最显著</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">日股</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：外资连续第4周减持，东证指数成分股净流出9.3亿美元</span></section></li></ul><p><strong><span leaf="">板块轮动特征</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">防御板块受宠</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：公用事业、医疗保健获净买入</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">周期板块遇冷</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：原材料、能源板块资金流出扩大</span></section></li></ul><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（防御性板块与科技板块走势显著分化）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">五、汇率市场：美元独强</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">主要货币表现</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">美元指数</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：周涨0.9%，非美货币普遍承压</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">人民币韧性</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：CFETS人民币汇率指数逆势微升0.2%</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">亚洲货币</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：韩元、泰铢分别贬值1.2%/0.8%</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">套利交易活跃</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">日元融资成本维持低位，澳元/纽元利差交易量周增23%</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">新兴市场货币波动率指数升至11.7，创3个月新高</span></section></li></ul><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（美元净流入占比达G10货币总规模的61%）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><br /></span></h4><h4><span leaf=""><span textstyle="" style="font-size: 18px;font-weight: bold;">六、机构动向：聪明钱布局方向</span></span><br /><strong><span leaf=""><br /></span></strong></h4><h4><strong><span leaf="">三大配置趋势</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></h4><ol class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><strong><span leaf="">增持中国国债</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：境外机构托管量单周增加202亿元</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">抄底港股科技</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：恒生科技ETF份额周增4.3亿份</span></section></li><li><strong><span leaf="">对冲美股风险</span></strong><section><span leaf="">：标普500看跌期权持仓量创年内新高</span></section></li></ol><p><strong><span leaf="">明星基金操作</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1"><li><section><span leaf="">桥水中国：增持中国国债期货多头头寸</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">贝莱德亚洲：港股持仓比例提升至组合的24%</span></section></li><li><section><span leaf="">高盛资管：建议超配A股消费升级主题</span></section></li></ul><p><br /><em><span leaf="">（国债与港股成为机构加仓重点）</span></em></p><hr style="border-style: solid;border-width: 1px 0 0;border-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1);-webkit-transform-origin: 0 0;-webkit-transform: scale(1, 0.5);transform-origin: 0 0;transform: scale(1, 0.5);" /><blockquote><p><strong><span leaf="">下周关注</span></strong><span leaf="">：</span><br /><span leaf="">① 8月中国PMI数据（9月1日公布）</span><br /><span leaf="">② 美联储Jackson Hole会议（8月24-26日）</span><br /><span leaf="">③ 美股科技巨头财报（英伟达8月23日）</span></p></blockquote><p><span leaf="">数据来源：高盛全球投资研究《Weekly Fund Flows》</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br 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