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全球LNG市场大变局:美国产能激增,中国需求疲软,价格战即将来临?——2025年能源格局深度预警

发布于 2025-08-21

<h3 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.25;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">一、现状:冰火两重天的市场格局</span></strong></h3><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">欧洲“囤气” vs 亚洲“退烧”</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025年上半年全球LNG需求稳定在2.04亿吨,但背后是剧烈的区域分化:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">欧洲进口量激增5%</span></strong><span leaf="">(达6100万吨),疯狂填补库存缺口并替代俄罗斯管道气;</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">亚洲进口量反而下降2%</span></strong><span leaf="">,主因中国需求暴跌12%,拖累整个区域表现。</span></p></span></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">中国为何“不买账”?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">国内天然气产量飙升(+13亿立方米)和管道进口(如“西伯利亚力量”满负荷运行)已能满足需求。2025年中国LNG进口预计下降9%,创近年新低。不过长期看,政策推动下2030年进口量将反弹至1亿吨。</span></p><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">二、风暴预警:史上最大产能扩张潮来袭</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">107万吨新增产能压顶</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">未来12个月将是LNG史上最疯狂的投产期:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">已投产46万吨</span></strong><span leaf="">:包括加拿大LNG一期(1400万吨)、美国Plaquemines一期(1330万吨)等;</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">即将投产61万吨</span></strong><span leaf="">:卡塔尔北部气田扩建(1560万吨)、美国Golden Pass(1560万吨)等重磅项目扎堆上线。</span></p></span></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">价格塌陷倒计时</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">产能激增将彻底扭转市场供需:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2025年</span></strong><span leaf="">:现货价格预计$12.5/百万英热;</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2026年</span></strong><span leaf="">:暴跌至$9(-28%);</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">• &nbsp;<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">2027年</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">:</span>进一步下探7,逼近6的边际成本线。</span></span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="margin: -2px 0px 0px;padding: 1px 2px;border: 0px;font: 1.21em / 1.2 KaTeX_Main, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, serif;vertical-align: middle;text-indent: 0px;text-rendering: auto;display: inline-block;max-width: 100%;overflow: auto hidden;"><span aria-hidden="true" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px currentcolor;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px currentcolor;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;width: min-content;display: inline-block;"><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px currentcolor;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></li></ul><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color) 4px;border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><em style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px 2px 0px 0px;border: 0px;font-style: italic;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">“这些产能终将被消化,但代价是价格腰斩。”</span></em><span leaf=""><br /></span></p></blockquote><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">三、2030年分水岭:过剩 or 紧缺?</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">短期过剩已成定局</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2025-2027年新增的130万吨产能(占现有产能33%)远超需求增速。若俄乌冲突结束导致俄气重返欧洲,过剩将更严峻。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">长期却藏供应危机</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">2030年后新需求窗口开启:</span></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span leaf="">全球LNG需求预计达6.25亿吨,需700万吨产能支撑;</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">当前规划存在100万吨缺口</span></strong><span leaf="">,需2025年前启动新项目(建设周期4-5年)。</span></p></span></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><section nodeleaf=""></section><p><span leaf=""><br /></span></p><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">四、投资风向标:谁赢谁输?</span></strong></h4><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">警惕上游勘探公司</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 16px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">依赖现货价格的LNG生产商(如Woodside、Santos)将受价格下跌冲击,而</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">亚洲燃气巨头</span></strong><span leaf="">(如ENN能源、昆仑能源)因采购成本下降反受益。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">聚焦“基建红利”赛道</span></strong></p><ul style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">LNG运输船</span></strong><span leaf="">(如日本三井OSK)、</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">再气化终端运营商</span></strong><span leaf="">(如印度Petronet)需求看涨;</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 8px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: inherit;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);"><span leaf="">•</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美国低成本项目</span></strong><span leaf="">(如路易斯安那LNG)仍具竞争力,高成本项目恐搁浅。</span></p></span></li></ul><hr style="margin: 32px 0px;border-width: 1px 0px 0px;border-right-style: initial;border-bottom-style: initial;border-left-style: initial;border-right-color: initial;border-bottom-color: initial;border-left-color: initial;border-image: initial;border-top-style: solid;border-top-color: rgb(240, 240, 240);background: none rgb(255, 255, 255);color: rgb(0, 0, 0);font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-size: 16px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-weight: 400;letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" /><h4 style="margin: 16px 0px 0rem;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;color: var(--yb-md-h-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">关键悬念</span></strong></h4><ol style="margin-top: 16px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 16px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgb(0, 0, 0);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 10px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;"><span leaf="">1.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">中国需求能否反转?</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;政策目标要求2030年天然气占比提至15%,但短期煤电替代仍是拦路虎。</span></p></span></li><li style="margin-top: 0px;margin-right: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;margin-left: 0px !important;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;display: flex;align-items: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><span style="margin: 0px 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: inherit;font-variant-caps: inherit;font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: var(--hy-font-family);vertical-align: baseline;text-align: right;color: var(--yb_text_markdown, #000);min-width: 13px;font-feature-settings: &quot;tnum&quot;;"><span leaf="">2.</span></span><span style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;flex: 1 1 0%;overflow: auto;"><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">俄气是否杀回马枪?</span></strong><span leaf="">&nbsp;若“西伯利亚力量2号”管道提前开通,亚洲LNG市场将遭重创。</span></p></span></li></ol><blockquote style="margin: 16px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 12px;border-top: 0px;border-right: 0px;border-bottom: 0px;border-left: solid var(--yb-md-blockquote-border-color) 4px;border-image: initial;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;vertical-align: baseline;quotes: none;color: var(--yb-md-blockquote-color);letter-spacing: -0.16px;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><p style="margin-top: 16px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.7;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心结论</span></strong><span leaf="">:未来2年属于买家市场,但2028年后或现供给荒——能源巨头此刻的抉择,将决定十年后的全球气价。</span></p></blockquote><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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