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关于“后万科时代”的几点思考(全) 原创 已修改 第1次修改 2022年02月21日 17时02分

发布于 2022-02-21

<p style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;">///<br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从企业投资回报率来看,我们进入了“黑铁时代”;</span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>从行业发展要求来看,我们进入了“后万科时代”;</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>从客户需求变化趋势来看,我们进入了“人居升级时代”。</strong></span></p><p style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></p><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7203125" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaM0J7sUcgvKJIDXdWgMShwnasnpeHVQB4aJzSRKoxfOr1zQiaSGoEmMeg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从1000亿到6500亿,身边的同事用兢兢业业和加班加点完成了华丽的跨越,但是面对2022年开始的“黑铁时代”“后万科时代”“人居升级时代”,这种一个人当两个人甚至三个人来用的“人海战术”是否还适用呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">我想,我们接下来迫切需要将工作向深入、细致的方向推进,既所谓内涵式的发展方式,向管理要效益,而不是向规模要效益。</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-croporisrc="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMdZroPlm1A9xrZmoRGLkgRhAzIg65uiaYhZjGpCiaJ2635026adst0Z6Q/0?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-cropx1="57.57785467128028" data-cropx2="1280" data-cropy1="538.1314878892734" data-cropy2="1428.3737024221455" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7277131782945736" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMvJKgvr4DeU0pIdT2P2q0vTWSHTQHJoRTcr1b9vPUic67nFiaQHK2zpjg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1032" style="width: 552px;height: 402px;" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">目前需要尽快精细化的有以下几个方面:</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、投资</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">新项目出现的偶然性,投资部考核压力下的拿地冲动,加上营销部被动束手等待,是造成拿地环节过于粗放、研究方法流于形式的主要原因。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">· 对市场的变化缺乏持续的动态的准确的把握,为了拿项目而研究市场,而不是因为市场机会合适而去拿项目。时间上的仓促造成报告数据缺失,结构逻辑混乱,且文件格式无法标准化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">· 营销前置工作的粗放,导致在实际拿地后无法按照前置成果进行操作,又需要进行新一轮的产品策略和价格策略讨论,重复劳动过多,且前置工作变得吃力不讨好,失去实际意义。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMSianeunmBBwBU4BLrtia3iaNVH6vaQiaCetIneTyspom4NnnicjvcHgxUTg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、定位</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">定位的过程就是实现土地、客户和产品三者交圈的过程,也就是选择合适品类的过程,但现状是我们往往为了为运营计划圆谎,片面强调产品或者强调客户,过分提高项目品类,却忽视了三者之间的对应关系。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMWAsvAOCpTGJp1sPBtJJzQYq3WepvSYOiaYJEvnRyuScrHeF6AqwjmgA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">3、设计</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">和定位过程一起,构成了前期策划阶段,这个阶段营销部需要提供的是产品建议书,但是从以往提供的众多产品建议书来看,思考方式和对问题的认识都是不统一的,难以真正深入到终端的产品创新中去。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">设计部和销售部在沟通过程中基本上是鸡同鸭讲,缺乏有效沟通的语言平台,到底是抽象化还是具象化呢?抽象化言语来自客户,但设计人员无法理解,最终出来的产品差强人意,具象化吧,由于专业能力的限制,往往提供的可借鉴项目在实际地块条件下根本无法借鉴。而且还经常存在细节处理不到位,边施工边设计的情况,这都与设计和营销之间沟通不畅有关。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaM5APogMu3NMO7t4HI6HDstEPWSIlNQicGkrhicokOGrX7hMDxIPAiaf2Og/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">4、成本</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">缺乏和成本的沟通,对公司项目的成本和市场其他项目成本构成情况也不了解,在选定项目部品时容易出现中庸化倾向,造成项目成本不高不低,产品竞争力不上不下。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">5、营销</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">定价过程没有严谨统一的科学方法,决策的过程以拍脑袋居多,缺乏风险评估机制,在牛市初期容易出现定价过于保守,而牛市后期则容易出现定价过于激进,对于定价的考虑更多来自于单项目的利润率,缺乏全局观。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">营销推广费用不低,但是缺乏效果评估的手段。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">销售还停留在杀客小动作精细化,全局服务粗放的阶段,迫切需要建立分品类的销售精细化,以便更好的服务于我们快速增长的成交客户和潜在客户。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMod0Os8ic77R1AoB99HPibBJDv0IPfCgajI8VboibqKUqqhhzp6ichlbQ8w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">如何实现精细化:</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">1、整合资源</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">从内部资源梳理开始,减少各项目组各职能组之间的重复动作,统一对市场信息、可售资源信息和客户信息的管理并相应形成标准化文件。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">外部资源整合从内部需求梳理开始,根据各项目组各职能组的需求,进行分类,开拓优秀的战略合作伙伴。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">2、平台化信息化</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">解决“投资”方面的问题——</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当务之急是建立完善的市场监测体系,可以通过对多源数据的整合,实现基础的市场数据库的建立,由客研部进行内部访谈和头脑风暴,确定市场关键指标,再根据这些指标建立市场监测体系,尤其要重视的是,这些关键指标不应该局限于传统的市场指标,而应该是考虑公司运营状况的综合性指标。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">最理想状态下的情况应该是,通过对城市规划、土地出让情况、施工面积等(细项再研究讨论)明确城市未来发展的方向和趋势以及各区域的竞争关系,通过对客户(家庭单位)、经济结构等(产业研究再研究讨论)的研究,明确未来城市人口变化趋势和品类分布趋势,结合财务回款计划和工程施工计划,便可明确未来拿地的重点片区重点品类、机会片区机会品类,对于重点片区深耕细作,机会片区快进快出。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMpCQsdKx6d0ufTrhgewDf0BDSs5cedMtMicUibyjOS7uqlpTkdRhiatdTw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /><span style="font-size: 16px;"></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">“定位”方面——</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">在建立了完善的市场监测体系之后,要实现土地产品客户三者匹配也就变得相对容易了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">需要重点关注的方向应当是财务和工程方面,关联因素则是销售价格,需要绘制出几个曲线,目的在于显示出在不同的销售价格下,项目可以实现的现金流变化情况,同时考虑工程进度的加快或者延迟可能带来的销售价格的波动区间。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">前者可以让我们从单项目高利润的盲区跳出去,真正实现高资金周转率,后者可以帮助我们有效评估市场风险,不会因为工程的突然延误而造成过大损失。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">“设计”方面——</span></strong></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">当务之急是要建立产品库,但是最终的目的应当是建立产品逻辑库、产品配件库和产品成本库。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">随着市场的成熟,未来产品在功能设计上是趋同的,打动客户的更多将是产品的内在逻辑。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">G3和G2或许未来在户型面积上可以趋同,但是其内在资源发配逻辑肯定是不同的,需要透过项目去寻找其内在逻辑,然后通过产品配件的不同构成方式或者组合方式(需要再研究)去剖析逻辑的实现方式。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">而最终能够真正实现这一块价值的还是产品成本库,也就是如何用更低的成本(包括时间成本)制造出更优的配件并建筑出更符合客户需求和预期的逻辑。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“成本”方面的难题似乎大部分可以在产品成本库里面解决了。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">顺便提多一句,产品成本库里面对不同价格材料的描述,不仅需要文字,还需要照片、视频和实物,这样有利于信息的传承,同时在经过时间的沉淀之后,有朝一日这些成本材料的变化还将成为我们孜孜不倦精心研究为客户创造价值过程的见证,也是不错的品牌宣传素材。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“营销”方面的首要问题是销售价格和销售计划方面的精细化。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">首先对于价格务必要建立价格评估体系,包含超额风险评估和超额盈利评估,需要结合财务指标考虑,如现金流的要求,同时还要关注土地获取的关键时间点,而不是单项目盈利考虑,大概需要出来几个关键指标,比如说成本定价下的价格底线。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">这里需要注意的是,成本里面的土地成本不是指当年获取土地的价格,而是需要以项目未来发售时同品类土地价格作为标准;比如说不同销售价格下的销售速度变化,需要标明拐点,有助于实现对销售速度的控制;比如说存销比变化趋势等。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><img class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-galleryid="" data-ratio="0.7265625" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/zd226QNNqG4Md16KCXcfhHCqZ2Mop5iaMNrRvQhRvffia7HHv4ONFkicd1BHtCx8ajmNA0puJlLibQniaSyZdn0PRUA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="" /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">品牌推广方面</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">——</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">需要建立推广效果评估平台,也包括销售渠道的费效比评估。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">营销费用也需要建立评估平台,具体指标也需要再研究。营销活动需要按照不同品类制定不同的标准,避免在宣传上互相打架。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">最后,在客户研究方面</span></strong><span style="font-size: 16px;">——我们需要尽快明确的是,如果沉迷于客户既有需求研究,是否与引领行业的愿景相符合呢?</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">我们是否更应该关注如何去建立我们的客户忠诚度呢?如何洞察客户的潜在需求,打造持续超越客户预期的产品,也是我们接下来的重要工作。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 12px;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);">///</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><br /></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);"><strong><span style="color: rgb(0, 122, 170);font-size: 16px;">“黑铁时代”要求我们提高工作的精细化程度,建立更全面的能力。</span></strong></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">“后万科时代”要求我们打破既有的思维枷锁,积极拥抱变化,新的机会来自于“客户的需求变化“”城市的发展变化“以及”科技的融入变化“。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">”人居升级时代“要求我们要保持产品创新的热情,探索建造新技术新工艺,以最优质的产品获得客户的长期忠诚度。</span></section><section style="margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><br /></span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;text-indent: 0em;white-space: normal;text-align: center;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><span style="max-width: 100%;color: rgb(136, 136, 136);font-size: 12px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;">-END-</span></section><section style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;margin-left: 16px;margin-right: 16px;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;"><br /></section><section data-role="paragraph" style="max-width: 100%;white-space: normal;font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang 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