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减肥神药失速?华尔街大行发出重磅警告

发布于 2025-08-14

<p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" data-pm-slice="0 0 []"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利最新研究报告给全球减肥药龙头诺和诺德泼了一盆冷水。这家华尔街顶级投行将诺和诺德目标价从550丹麦克朗大幅下调至380丹麦克朗(降幅高达31%),同时维持“持股观望”评级,揭示出GLP-1药物市场正在面临严峻挑战。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心预警:增长引擎面临熄火风险</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利报告直指诺和诺德两大王牌药物——降糖药Ozempic(诺和泰)和减肥药Wegovy(诺和益)的增长困境:</span></p><ol style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美国市场增长失速:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">Wegovy在美国的周处方量近期稳定在27.5万份左右,但增长明显放缓。摩根士丹利预计未来增长将主要依赖价格让步(预计2025-2026年价格下跌15-17%)而非处方量激增。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">仿制药冲击迫近:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">2026年将是关键转折点。Ozempic在加拿大、巴西、中国和印度等关键新兴市场将面临仿制药的实质性冲击。仅加拿大市场,大摩就预测Ozempic销售额将在2026年因此减少30亿丹麦克朗(约4.3亿美元)。更令人担忧的是,仿制药产能若持续扩大,存在流入美国市场的潜在风险。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">医保价格“断崖”:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">悬在美国市场头顶的最大利剑是医保价格谈判。Ozempic被纳入美国联邦医疗保险(Medicare)Part D药品价格谈判名单,结果将于2025年11月公布。大摩预测,2027年生效的新价格可能对Ozempic净价造成毁灭性打击——</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">从目前的约430美元/月腰斩至200美元/月。</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">考虑到Medicare Part D占Ozempic美国销售额的30%以上,此影响将波及整个集团7%的销售额。</span></span></strong></li></ol><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">下调逻辑:短期预期触底,长期前景蒙尘</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利下调目标价的逻辑清晰体现在其全面下调的业绩预测中:</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">短期(2025年):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">下调2%的销售预测和3%的营业利润预测,主要反映美国Ozempic和Wegovy下半年增长乏力。尽管其预测仍处于公司新指引区间(销售增长8-14%,营业利润增长10-16%)的上半部分(12%和15%),但已显著低于市场共识。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">中长期(2026-2030年):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">下调幅度更为剧烈,销售预测下调9-14%,营业利润下调13-20%。核心原因是:1) Ozempic面临更广泛的仿制药竞争和医保降价压力;2) Wegovy全球增长放缓(美国受仿制药和价格竞争拖累,欧洲市场被礼来的Mounjaro快速抢占份额);3)&nbsp;</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: bold;">对新一代药物(如CagriSema和Amycretin)的过渡前景预期转弱。</span><span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">摩根士丹利已将CagriSema在美国以外市场的销售预测完全剔除,并认为管线产品的接力过程将“不再如先前预期的那般顺利”。</span></span></strong></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">2026年:关键考验期,预期持续低迷</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利强调,市场焦点正转向更令人担忧的2026年:</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">预测销售额仅增长9.5%(按固定汇率计算),营业利润仅微增0.9%,远低于市场预期(分别低12%和17%)。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">美国Ozempic销售额预计将出现下滑,仿制药在多个市场上市将拖累其海外增长。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">Wegovy在美国的增长将进一步放缓,价格压力和激烈的市场竞争(主要来自礼来和仿制药)将持续施压。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">未来催化剂:风险大于机遇</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利梳理了未来关键节点,但整体判断偏向谨慎,甚至看空:</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">短期利空密集:</span></strong></li><ul style="margin: 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: circle;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">礼来口服减肥药Orforglipron的III期数据(2025年三季度):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">若成功,将进一步挑战诺和诺德在口服减肥药领域的潜在先发优势。</span></span></strong></li></ul></ul><ul style="margin: 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: circle;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">Ozempic医保谈判结果(2025年11月):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">大摩已按50%净价降幅计入预测,这是重大潜在利空。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">礼来“三重激动剂”Retatrutide首个III期数据(2025年四季度):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">若显示优异疗效和安全性,将突显礼来的创新优势。</span></span></strong></li></ul><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">长期管线面临挑战:</span></strong></li><ul style="margin: 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: circle;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">口服司美格鲁肽(Rybelsus)治疗阿尔兹海默症(2025年下半年):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">摩根士丹利认为其成功概率低(“不太可能读出阳性结果”)。</span></span></strong></li></ul></ul><ul style="margin: 4px 0px 0px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: circle;text-align: left;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">CagriSema(头对头礼来Tirzepatide)及Amycretin的中期数据(2026年):<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">这是诺和诺德维持领导地位的关键,但大摩目前预期较为保守。礼来同步推进的Amylin(胰淀素)类似物等新一代药物,也构成潜在竞争威胁。</span></span></strong></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">估值对比:光环失色,优势不再</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">基于大幅下调的业绩预期(2025-2028年销售额/EBITDA/每股盈利复合年增长率仅约7%),诺和诺德当前股价对应2025年预测市盈率约14倍。摩根士丹利指出:</span></p><ul style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: disc;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">该估值虽低于罗氏(约24倍),但显著高于其增长前景更强劲(2025-2028年销售/每股盈利复合年增长率预期18%/26%)的</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">头号对手礼来(当前市盈率约32倍)</span></strong><span leaf="">。</span></section></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><section><span leaf="">与欧洲大型药企平均约13倍的市盈率和1.9倍的PEG(市盈增长比率)相比,诺和诺德2.1倍的PEG显得吸引力不足。</span></section></li></ul><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 8px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">投资者应关注什么?摩根士丹利给出六大风向标</span></strong></p><ol style="margin: 8px 0px 16px;padding: 0px 0px 0px 16px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: inherit;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;list-style: decimal;text-align: left;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;" class="list-paddingleft-1"><li style="margin: 0px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">Wegovy美国处方量趋势:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">关注从现金支付渠道向医保覆盖渠道的转化是否顺利,以及价格策略效果。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">美国仿制药监管动向:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">联邦层面若出台严厉措施打击不合规的GLP-1仿制药生产,将利好诺和诺德。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">肥胖药定价策略大讨论:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">价格是否成为诺和诺德夺回市场份额的关键筹码?</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">Ozempic医保谈判结果:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">11月公布的降价幅度是核心风险点。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 4px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">加拿大仿制药的溢出效应:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">关注其是否会流入美国市场。</span></span></strong></li><li style="margin: 4px 0px 0px 4px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">核心管线数据读出的成败:<span textstyle="" style="font-weight: normal;">尤其是CagriSema和Amycretin能否证明其竞争力。</span></span></strong></li></ol><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 12px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">结语:观望期的守望</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 8px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: normal;font-variant-ligatures: normal;font-variant-caps: normal;font-variant-numeric: inherit;font-variant-east-asian: inherit;font-variant-alternates: inherit;font-variant-position: inherit;font-weight: 400;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: 16px;line-height: 1.75;font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Ubuntu, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, &quot;Source Han Sans CN&quot;, sans-serif;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;word-break: break-word;overflow-wrap: break-word;color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9);letter-spacing: normal;orphans: 2;text-align: start;text-indent: 0px;text-transform: none;widows: 2;word-spacing: 0px;-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(252, 252, 252);text-decoration-thickness: initial;text-decoration-style: initial;text-decoration-color: initial;"><span leaf="">摩根士丹利的这份报告描绘了一幅严峻图景:诺和诺德凭借先发优势建立的GLP-1帝国正面临礼来创新的强力冲击、全球仿制药的崛起以及美国医保控费的三重压力。其大幅下调目标价并维持“持股观望”评级的核心逻辑在于:</span><strong style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;border: 0px;font-style: inherit;font-variant: inherit;font-weight: 600;font-stretch: inherit;font-size: inherit;line-height: inherit;font-family: inherit;font-optical-sizing: inherit;font-kerning: inherit;font-feature-settings: inherit;font-variation-settings: inherit;vertical-align: baseline;"><span leaf="">虽然股价下跌已部分反映了不确定性,但在关键风险靴子落地(尤其是医保谈判和礼来关键数据)以及新一代药物证明其竞争力之前,缺乏明确的上涨催化剂</span></strong><span leaf="">。投资者需要密切跟踪上述六大关键指标的变化,以判断诺和诺德能否穿越风暴,重现辉煌。减肥神药的下半场竞赛,才刚刚拉开序幕,而竞争的残酷性已显露无疑。</span></p><section><span leaf=""><br /></span></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p>

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